Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bob Michele & Brad Bechtel
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Join us in Seattle, July 14th and 15th for Bloomberg Green, two days of powerful conversations and meaningful connections. We'll explore what's next in the climate economy, clean tech, policy, and greener living. Featured speakers include Jane Fonda, Brian Gellert, and Vinod Khosla. The title sponsor is Amazon. Official airlines are Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines. Learn more at BloombergLive.com slash GreenSeattle. That's BloombergLive.com slash GreenSeattle.

Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. A single best idea. The single best idea is to understand the jobs report.

It's Thursday, not Friday, this week. A huge wall of economic data squeezed in to a holiday-lengthened work week. We start strong with Bob Michael out with a mid-year update for J.P. Morgan, driving all of their full faith and credit work, many other duties as well. Bob Michael here on the new regime, which is the new normal. We're heading into an environment that's more normal, that existed pre-great financial crisis, when...

There is a demand for capital because there's a productive use for capital and there will be a cost for that capital and it won't be zero. Does that mean the Fed funds rate belongs about where that first dot was that the Fed put out in 2012, four and a quarter percent? Maybe.

could be get ready for that get ready for markets where you could see a surge in inflation the Fed may have to go to six percent and they may have to you know apply a little stimulus and go down to three percent I think that's the market we're headed for and I think that's an exciting market Bob Michael there with JP Morgan just really interesting conversations

about the mid-year review and, of course, the uncertainties and the many uncertainties, hard to quantify, that are out there. It was a joy to talk to Brad Bechtel. He is with Jefferies and very different in foreign exchange strategy with a huge trading strategy.

in the sales part of it, the mechanism, the process part of buying and selling various and sundry foreign exchange. I asked Brad Bechtel the idea here of what's the rookie mistake in foreign exchange trading.

The biggest mistake people make is they get convinced on a trade, they jump all in, and you have to be very careful. This is a sawtooth market. This is not a market that's on a 45-degree line. This is a market that likes to wash people out from time to time. So the moment you get convinced on the trade, like I am now with the short dollar strategy, you have to remain nimble and you have to remain hedged and ready to kind of reduce risk

into the extreme moves. So when the positioning gets extreme, that's when you should be lightening up. Look to reload on the snapback. Brad Bechtel with Jefferies. I can't say enough. We do equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. There's an entire U.S. heritage back well over 100 years ago.

of ignoring the dollar. We are the dollar. We don't have to care about foreign exchange because we are the dollar. Well, guess what? It's the modern era where all of these relationships matter as well. Please stay with us again with the jobs report on Thursday on podcasts at Apple Podcasts and Spotify too and on YouTube podcasts. That's the single best idea.

Join us in Seattle, July 14th and 15th for Bloomberg Green, two days of powerful conversations and meaningful connections. We'll explore what's next in the climate economy, clean tech, policy, and greener living. Featured speakers include Jane Fonda, Brian Gellert, and Vinod Khosla. The title sponsor is Amazon. Official airlines are Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines. Learn more at BloombergLive.com slash GreenSeattle. That's BloombergLive.com slash GreenSeattle.

This is an iHeart Podcast.