Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Campbell Harvey & Ed Morse
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Whatever challenge comes next, let Microsoft help you keep pushing forward. For more details, visit Microsoft.com slash challengers. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Single best idea. And to go back to the heart and soul of what we've done for over two decades, it's really important in the racket to keep track of how and where people came from.

Campbell Harvey is at Duke University. He's really exquisite. His lead academics years ago out of the Canadian schools, the University of York and others, was on consumer preference, what consumers do and how they act. But far more important, and he's too modest of a guy to ever mention it, what do you do in your doctoral dissertation when three of the five professors, six professors, when three of them

are future Nobel Prize winners. I don't know how many people within the Bloomberg surveillance world can say that. To survive a doctoral dissertation with Thoma, Merton, and Hansen at Chicago is just absolutely definitive. Campbell Harvey on the American consumer. Most of our models in economics have what's called a representative consumer, which is code for everybody's the same.

And that's just not the case anymore. So we're a dairy heifer genius. And I've argued that part of kind of the decreasing volatility of the business cycle. So our business cycles are way milder than in the past, even considering the global financial crisis and COVID.

So, they're less frequent and they're milder. And this is because there are a couple of classes of consumers, at least. And there's one class that is very well off and they just don't respond. So, inflation goes up, it's no big deal to them. They just buy. Kim Harvey and that definitive argument there between Campbell Harvey of Duke University and the late, say, Alan Meltzer,

at Carnegie Mellon is extraordinary. Should we aggregate our data or has America become so unique under consumption, even investment, even government? And of course, our export dynamics with all the tariffs that are going on, have we become two Americas? Just a wonderful moment there with the professor of Duke University. What an honor today, given all that's going on, to speak to Edward Morse,

In his 80s, he's got the interior energy of a 35-year-old. Absolutely unreal conversation with Edward Morse, iconic at Citigroup. All of his academics, including back to Princeton 50 years ago. He was on fire today. And in some support of Trump energy policy, here is Edward Morse of Hartree saying,

And John Kerry? I'm critical of one thing that I think looms very large, and John Kerry's name is associated with it. When we had the push for a clean energy world and the U.S. was in a leadership position on it, we also had the official view that we not only want to get rid of oil and the emissions from burning oil as a transport fuel, but we had the view that we should get rid of natural gas emissions

as a fossil fuel. And that really set us back because fossil fuels, we can't get to net zero without actually using a lot of natural gas. We have to use it carefully. We have to make sure that methane emissions are controlled. But

not allowing pipelines to be built for natural gas, not pushing for natural gas in the overall displacement of oil and discouraging oil's use.

was a mistake in my mind and set us back on the road to a cleaner world. And when we come to natural gas, by the way, the U.S. is the largest producer in the world. We are the largest exporter in the world, both of oil and natural gas.

And we if you look at the next five years, the U.S. is going to keep that up and remain the largest exporter with the largest growth. Fifty percent of the growth of gas utilization and production. But we're going to be exporting. Most of it is coming from the U.S. It's a very important tool for economics and for the energy transition. Edward Morse of Hartree with us today. An eventful week with a Fed meeting.

on Wednesday, of course, on podcasts out at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, huge worldwide response to Spotify podcasts. Thank you for that. And we are at YouTube Podcasts. This is Single Best Idea.

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