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cover of episode Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Adam Posen

Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Adam Posen

2025/5/2
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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Tom Keene
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Claudia Sahm: 我认为目前美国经济没有处于衰退之中。然而,我对于政府目前政策制定的速度和激进程度感到担忧。如此迅速和激进的政策可能会造成巨大的损害,即使这些政策的初衷是好的,例如实施产业政策或提高关税。我们需要看到政府采取行动,降低这些成本,以免为时已晚。 Adam Posen: 我认为特朗普政府对美国研究能力的破坏是其最具破坏性的行为之一。破坏美国几十年来一直依赖的伟大研究体系,这可能是特朗普政府所做的最具破坏性的事情。这不仅限于哈佛大学等名校,而是对整个国立卫生研究院以及生物医学研究的全面破坏。通过任命一位与所有已知研究相悖的卫生与公众服务部部长,他们正在削弱研究标准。这对美国经济以及全世界的福祉来说都是巨大的损失,我们必须采取措施来弥补这种损失。 Tom Keene: 我同意Claudia Sahm关于贸易战的观点,并认为Adam Posen关于美国研究能力的文章非常有见地。Adam Posen的文章深刻地指出了贸易战的零和谬误。此外,Jonathan Cole的研究也强调了美国研究能力的核心在于与优秀学术机构相结合的研究型大学,例如约翰霍普金斯大学和芝加哥大学。

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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. The single best idea after an emotional month deep into May.

And after an emotional week, in here with the jobs report, doing better than good all in all, major shout out to Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics, who certainly had a huge part of that buoyancy to the job market, the trend up near here, 160, and whether it's 170, three months moving average, 155,000. And the stock market reacting to it, at least here on a Friday, as we tape at this moment.

But in amongst it was some tension. It's always good to speak to people world acclaimed for their academics. Claudia Assam leads our employment coverage definitive at Michigan on thinking at the Fed, I should say as well, thinking about what is recession, what does slowdown look like? First thing she said in her conversation today, this is not a recession. There is no recession out there. Late in the conversation and here,

Claudia Somm on the speed, the rapidity of our policymaking. They need to slow it down. Right. You know, I disagree with the policies they're pursuing, but I'm strong. I'm very concerned about the way in which they're being pursued. This is very aggressive. This is very fast and it can potentially cause a lot of damage. So even if you're in the spirit of

having more industrial policy, having higher tariffs, a smaller government. Like there's a way to do this that doesn't cause maximal damage. Right. And I'm very concerned. And I think the White House and you hear some messaging from them that, you know,

Tariff rates aren't sustainable with China and we're doing negotiations. But like we need to see some action that actually pulls back these costs before it's too late. Claudia Somm there within this trade war, within this moment for America in the world. John Arthur's writing up at Bloomberg Opinion. I thought the Martin Wolf essay, I think it was two ago on the trade war, was just brilliant over at the Financial Times. But the one essay that for me sticks out was Adam Posen's.

I'm guessing five ancient weeks ago, long weeks ago, in Foreign Affairs. Adam Posen, absolutely definitive, and with a piercing paragraph on the zero-sum fallacy of our trade war. We touched on Adam Smith, the giant David Ricardo of about 1815. But late in the conversation with Adam Posen at the Peterson Institute, we talked about his view.

on American education? It's insane. No matter how valid the criticisms may or may not be, and I'm not going to touch that because I'm not an academic, thank God. But destroying the research capacity of the greatest research complex in human history that has been the source of American advantage and well-being and defense capacity for generations

80 years is possibly the most destructive thing the Trump administration is doing. And I don't mean just Harvard and I don't mean

worrying about supposed anti-Semitism, although I think that's not what really motivates them, but who the heck knows. I think you're destroying National Institute of Health. You're destroying biomedical research across the board. You're undercutting standards for research by having an HHS secretary who makes stuff up in contrast to all known research. I mean, I could just spew on this

sputtering for hours. This is the golden goose for the U.S. economy, for the world's well-being, and we are destroying it. And that's where the U.K. and a few other countries, including Japan, Singapore, Australia, Germany, we have to help step up and find a home for talent and find the money because this is something we can't replace. Adam Posen there of the Peterson Institute. A major shout out to an institution at Columbia University,

There is one guy that has written and thought about this more than anyone I know. His name is Jonathan Cole, C-O-L-E.

And he's written definitive books on this miracle that was wrought as a generalization out of World War II, but I would suggest it started before that, at least with a land-grant program of the 19th century. Think the A&Ms, Texas A&M and the rest as well. But Jonathan Cole will say that the research capabilities of this nation are

are centered around research universities bolted on to the great academics of your kid getting an undergraduate degree. And he centers there on the Johns Hopkins University and on the University of Chicago. Somehow this will be a theme for where Janet Lauren is our expert on this at Bloomberg. We'll speak to her as we can.

Across the nation on your commute. Good morning on Google. Thrilled with the new Google technology on Android Auto. Just all sorts of new stuff going on there. Good morning 99.1 FM in Washington, 92.9 FM in Boston and Bloomberg 1130. Good morning to you. I should say that we're on YouTube podcasts and this is Single Best Idea.

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