Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Daniel Tannebaum & Anna Wong
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is as we go through what we're all living over the last three, four, five weeks, 95 days into the second presidency of Donald Trump, that it just gets more and more chaotic. Mike Allen out at Axios led today with the word chaos. I'm not going to editorialize chaos, but what I will say is conversation to conversation, it is the oddest time right now.

In any given show, we have five, six, seven, eight single best ideas. We could bring it. We keep it to two. We want this to be a shorter podcast for you versus a longer exercise. And today we got lucky. Sometimes you book a guest. You have no idea why you book them. You just book them because they're in Washington at the IMF for that.

And then something breaks that they're expert on. Daniel Tannenbaum was with us with Oliver Wyman. He is expert on sanctions. He is expert on goods, services and cash flows to Russia. The president came out and I paraphrase a long tweet. He said, Vladimir, comma, all caps, stop, exclamation point.

Daniel Tannenbaum of Oliver Wyman on a tweet. You know, it's wonderful. The president was pissed at Putin a few weeks ago. I think we saw that on one of the Sunday morning shows. But he needs to actually take action against Russia. There have been two major moves that the U.S. has made on Russia since Trump has taken office again. One was by quietly extending Biden-era Russia sanctions a week and a half ago with little fanfare. The other was actually by not doing something and letting an

WAIVER EXPIRE,

to ban the trading or financing of Russian energy. But the president needs to be more active on actually using the considerable power that the U.S. government has to put more pressure on Russia and those supporting it. Daniel, 10 of Oliver Wyman, a lot of other good conversations. Of course, a lot of his senator on claims today. They came in on target. They certainly did not go to a worse number, a higher statistic. I believe they came in at 222,000.

I modeled a standard deviation study, and, you know, 240,000 is some angst, but 260,000 is where the challenges click in. We're not there yet. Still good claims numbers. Anna Wong joined us from Bloomberg Economics. She said such an impact on American economics in the last 12 months.

Anna Wahega on the path forward for the American labor economy. 4.8% unemployment rate, though, historically. A cold statistician looking at it will still be thinking, well, it's not that high compared to a historical average. However, you're right, Tom, it's the emotions. And I think people, of course, will be pulling back on spending, particularly after they have stocked up,

running the tariffs in the first quarter this year. And so this, it will be a very harsh Christmas and Halloween season, particularly because there will be a lot of empty spaces on the shelves too.

An amazing statement there from Dr. Wong. Looking forward to some of the worries that are out there. Of course, our Washington team reporting that big box retail executives have tried to sit down with the president today.

and explain to him full to empty shelves. On your commute across the nation, particularly good morning to Canada. We say good morning to you on your commute as well. We had a great, great half hour on Canada with Jean Bovin of Black Rock today. But just thank you so much. And on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts and out at YouTube Podcasts. This is Signal Best. Bye.

Thank you.

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