Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Gina Martin Adams & Huw van Steenis
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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Really, really interesting day of Single Best Idea and what we do on Bloomberg Surveillance. Sometimes we have breaking news, headlines we have to get into, where they're market moving in this moment. The Dow went up 200 points on futures. It was a Trump announcement on Tuesday.

tariffs. So we have to short a guest. We really try to bring back guests that we've had to short. Soon, one of those today was Mick Mulroy with Lobo Institute on the Pentagon on Defense. He came to us from Montana, the land of the Strategic Air Command. It seems ancient history, but it was when Minutemen missiles

We're important to America. We'll get McMulroy on again and many other worthies as well. Someone that it was a joy to speak to at length today was Gina Martin-Adams, really explaining the uncertainty that's out there within securities analysis and within the stock market.

Here, Gina Martin-Adams on this moment of a trade war. This president is very committed to amending the order. How much he amends it is up for grabs. It's a big question. But we will have an amendment to the global world trade order. And that's important to understand is there's no going back to where we were on January 1st.

The question is, how far do we go in the adjustment process at this point in time? There are still, though, a substantial amount of people that think this is just a lot of volatility and a lot of noise and underlying this, you know, he'll eventually go away and stop. And I'm not sure that's going to be the case. I think you have to sort of respect the commitment level to changing things while it'll be in fits and starts and certainly a volatile path. We will be a changed country.

universe going forward, the question mark is how much has that changed and where is it damaging, where is it potentially positively impactful? Gina Martin-Adams, excellent at fundamental and technical analysis, running all of Bloomberg Intelligence Equities. Thrilled that she could be in studio with us today. One of the great secrets of how we make the sauce, how we make the spaghetti here each and every day,

is that so many of our guests really choose to be with us. I can't emphasize enough how important that is. Someone who for decades has really provided benefit from his time at Morgan Stanley, definitive on European banks, to his public service, I should say.

to his United Kingdom has been Hugh von Steenis, now at Oliver Wyman. He transfixed us today with a discussion of the cash flow, excuse me, the interior cash flow dynamics of small business and retail America given this trade war. Here, Hugh von Steenis.

These are unbelievably entrepreneurial folk, and so they're trying to sort of weave their way through this. Look, I think the first and second line is really about the order books. Has the sales come down? Whether I've got highly leveraged companies trying to forensically work through that. So I think it's about cash conservation and it's about getting a cost down. So I'm already picking up people saying to all their management teams, have you thought about a cost round? What are you doing about that? So that's one. But on the other side, in credit land,

There are actually people trying to look at this as an opportunity and actually trying to buy in some of the credits at wider spreads. About 60% of the new inflows for the private market firms for the last two years has been credit. And overwhelmingly, as we've discussed before, that's coming from the insurers. These are steady hands. They want to deploy in size. But obviously on the equity side, there is more stress in the system.

You have on Stannis, and he was just brilliant on some of the challenges we may face in private equity as well. What an eventful day it's been in through a week that seems to be as exhausting as every other week we've had over the last number of weeks. We're watching the markets and the correlated changes.

Almost Bloomberg headline to Bloomberg headline. We'll continue to do that through the week. On your commute across the nation, on Bloomberg Radio, on Android Auto, on Apple CarPlay, good morning, 99.1 FM in Washington, where Lisa Abramowitz is holding good conversations with the IMF types. We say good morning. Out on YouTube podcasts, this is Single Best Idea.

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