Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jack Devine & Michael Darda
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A single best idea quickly on a Fed day. That's the way we roll. And we say thank you for listening. A great set of guests today. Great set of conversations. I love what Greg Vallier said in his research note. These are confusing times. This issue, the next issue, the one on from that. Just a confusion on this Fed day. It would be good to speak to people with decades of authority.

Jack Devine joined the CIA in his first mission in 1971 with Santiago, Chile. Just extraordinary breadth of career. And we were honored to have Jack Devine of the Arkin Group, the Council on Foreign Relations, on today on our CIA knowledge of Iran. Here is Jack Devine on the nuclear threat. This is a controversial issue today because...

Tulsi Gabbard went, you know, in March went down the hill and said that the Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and it was three years before they could deliver it. And that was raised with President Trump yesterday. And he said he's really not counting on that information. And so therefore, I think there is a disconnect. And I guess I would have a cautionary note for political leaders.

And that is if you have a choice between the intelligence community that says we're going to give you nothing but the truth and you have political leaders and other countries who have a vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way, I would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates. So having said that,

There are subset issues in this that I could touch on, which is, for example, we have to be careful in defense of Netanyahu's presentation of the situation. This is not underestimated. You cannot get this wrong and say that it's not...

It's not a dangerous situation. Decades for the CIA. Jack Devine of the Arkin Group. On a Fed day, always wonderful to talk to Michael Darda, synthesizing his economics at Roth over into a stock market call. Didn't talk much about the stock market today with Mr. Darda. Michael Darda here on the Fed and the challenges forward. I'll have to say, I mean, I was quite skeptical of

this whole AI revolution. I thought it was a bit overhyped and overbaked, but I've kind of changed my view on that. And this is just anecdotal, but just through personal use of these AI interfaces, I mean, there has been a vast and breathtaking improvement in what this technology can do. Whether we're dealing with health and wellness from a personal perspective,

or your favorite macroeconomic modeling. I mean, it's like having 50 research assistants at your disposal and you don't even have to be nice to them. So Paul asked a question of Michael Darda and what you don't see is when I'm talking, Paul Sweeney's doing research to move forward the program. When Paul's talking, I'm doing research. So Paul asked Darda a question and I typed in Google Gemini

And I went to a Blanchard-Khan paper of a zillion years ago on linear rational algebra. Very, very academic PhD. And there it was all laid out, including DSGE, which is what Richard Claret is acclaimed for, the vice chairman who will join us today on the Fed show. I'm with Darda using AI. It's sobering.

We're out across the nation. This podcast on Apple, on Spotify, and on YouTube podcasts. This is Single Best Idea.

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