Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jeff deGraaf & Brian Belski
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Single best idea. And I'll tell you, it's really something out there, folks. It's been 24-7 for everyone at Bloomberg News. I think it's been written up nicely. I read Ogagori, I know, was out with an interview in Semaphore about the absolute exhaustion of doing this truly 24-7. Let me describe the day, and not my day because nobody really cares what I'm doing, but the staff here today.

in the trenches, someone like Emily Grafeo, who joined us today from the equity team. It's not like eight hours. Oh, there's a crisis. Let's extend out two or three hours. It's always there. And the constraint in the modern day is I'm not going to look at my cell phone for 20 minutes. It's literally what it's become. And it starts early in the morning. We get through the day.

And there's a window somewhere in the vicinity of 430. We're from 430 to 625. I'm making it up.

There's a gap where the markets don't matter. And then it picks up right again at 7 p.m. as Tokyo opens, and we see what the dollar will do. We see what gold will do with the moon shot up 3,500 today. And also, quite frankly, the different dynamics, very sophisticated dynamics out there. John Farrow sent me a chart today of euro-Chinese renminbi. I hadn't looked at it in ages, and there it was. It's a hockey stick chart of strong euro.

weak renminbi, something, you know, the instabilities that you see over particularly with European trade, much a larger world trade than what we have in the United States on a percentage basis. We did look at the equity markets, Brian Belsky, in a moment. But first, Jeffrey DeGraff of Renaissance Macro. Jeff DeGraff on this bear market. Our bear market is not about being down 20 percent. It's not some magical number. It really is about the combination of the increase in volatility, the

decrease in returns and what that's happening on a trend basis. Those are all sloping downwards now. In our book, that is the definition of a bear market. That really kicked in about a month ago. This is not a new phenomenon. This has been something that's at play. I do think that that's important as we think about it from a longer-term perspective. The question is, has sentiment outdone itself in the very near term to get a really nice rally

And that's where we are. We think we can rally back to at least 5,500, probably close to 5,700. And then the question will be, how did we get there? Did we get there with momentum? Did we get there with a change in the attitude? If we didn't, then that's a rally to sell. For those of you in the market, that's a brilliantly clear discussion. And that is the foundation of Jeff DeGraff with the economics of Neil Dutta, his fundamental analysis, and also his important technical analysis.

as well. One of the things that's important is to identify a trend or a point of debate. The word is distinction that I use, the distinction between guest A and guest B. And right now, absolutely the primary distinction within what we do in economics, finance, investment, and international relations is are we in a sea change shift

And this is from Thomas Kuhn, I'm going to guess 1948 at Harvard, a paradigmatic shift. Or is it going to be, OK, this was harsh. It's going to get fixed and we get back to some kind of normal. It is a raging debate. I'm trying to keep myself out of the debate. It's not my job to have an opinion on it. I'm not going to give you opinion now, but I know a lot of you are laughing at me here because you can hear the opinion through the show.

What a joy to speak to Brian Belsky today, a BMO capital market who doesn't know how to spell paradigm. Many of my compatriots, colleagues and competitors are not staying in their lane. They've become now amateur psychologists that are diagnosing personality disorders where they should actually be focusing more on what's happening in the economy in terms of the earnings.

Here's what we know. We don't know exactly how long this is going to last. We've already positioned, we meaning consensus, that this is going to take years and years and years and years to unfold. So I believe that the majority of portfolios, strategists, economists are already positioned for the worst case scenario. What we believe in our standing in terms of the investment strategy group at BMO is this could all be over in a matter of days. We're not trying to be

Pollyanna or flippant. We believe in the inherent strength of the U.S. economy, the U.S. stock market, and we still believe that we have the best assets in the world. And we're going to take negativity to add to those assets. Brian Belsky, BMO Capital Markets. I should also suggest that he thinks the Minnesota Vikings are destined for the Super Bowl this year. An extraordinary time we're living in. Of course, our team down at the meetings of the IMF and the World Bank is

as well as a good team being put together for the remembrances of the Pope this week in Rome, Italy. We're across the nation. Look for us on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. And on YouTube podcasts, it's single best idea.

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