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Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Rebecca Patterson & Tina Fordham

2025/6/13
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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Tom Keene:我认为欧洲比美国更容易受到中东局势的影响,因为它们更依赖石油进口。美国在能源方面基本上可以自给自足,因此欧洲在贸易和能源方面会更加脆弱。当前局势升级导致石油价格大幅上涨,这无疑加剧了全球经济的不确定性,尤其对依赖中东能源的欧洲国家构成了直接威胁。地缘政治风险的加剧使得全球经济前景更加不明朗,投资者需要密切关注局势发展,以便及时调整投资策略。 Rebecca Patterson:我认为尽管美国经济数据表现稳健,但由于不确定性增加,企业活动可能会暂停。当前的地缘政治事件无疑给本已紧张的商业环境火上浇油。如果企业活动因此停滞,将对整体经济产生负面影响。企业面临着前所未有的挑战,需要审慎评估风险,并制定相应的应对措施。地缘政治紧张局势对商业决策的影响不容忽视,企业应密切关注局势发展,以便更好地应对潜在的经济冲击。 Tina Fordham:我认为美国面临的每一个问题都被贴上了左或右的标签,这对于世界和应对威胁非常不利。为了商业和金融市场的运作,我们需要安全和稳定,但现在很难进行相关讨论,因为人们容易陷入党派之争,而忽略了冲突可能带来的系统性风险。我们应该关注冲突如何从区域性演变为系统性,以及如何对资产价格和经济增长产生冲击。当前社会环境使得客观分析和有效应对地缘政治风险变得更加困难,我们需要超越党派之争,共同应对全球性挑战。

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Starting last night, I'm going to guess 10 p.m., but really to midnight, we blew up the show once, twice, three times. It was really extraordinary to see the news flow out of Iran, out of Israel, and then to digest it through the markets in a big leap in oil, oil at one point up 12%.

And, you know, it's up 4 or 5 percent as we tape here. Single best idea. We were advantaged with Rebecca Patterson out the council and foreign relations. Rebecca Patterson and the dynamics of oil imports. They rely on oil.

oil and energy imports a lot more than the U.S. We're self-sufficient, effectively, in energy. So they're going to be much more vulnerable to that, as well as just trade between the Middle East and Europe. But I do think the U.S. is

more vulnerable than normal right now because even though the hard data, so to speak, the economy in the U.S. is moderating but still solid, you do have this heightened level of uncertainty among businesses in particular. You're just adding more fuel to that fire with this. If you want business activity to pause, this is going to contribute. Rebecca Patterson there with the Council on Foreign Relations. One of our first calls last night, Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Insights. She was

Absolutely brilliant. Here is Tina Fordham on the divisiveness of America. I think one of the tragedies of the present moment is that every single issue that the U.S. is facing is now left-coded and right-coded in a way which is very bad for the world and for dealing with threats.

I am in this role and in this seat because I think that in order for commerce and financial markets to function, we need safety and stability. And unfortunately, it's very difficult to have those conversations

even on Wall Street anymore without going down some kind of rabbit hole of whether one is defending Ukraine policy or is pro or anti-Israel when what we really need to be looking at as investors is the potential for conflicts to move from regional to systemic to generate shocks to asset prices or to growth and we're not having those conversations anymore Tina Fordham Fordham Global Insight I'd like to tell you that I know where the news flow will be Sunday

I'm certain, I don't know where it will be Monday, please stay with us across all of our platforms internationally as these events unfold. Across the nation on your commute, thank you SiriusXM Channel 121 for that listening. Internationally on Spotify, getting a huge response from that. I don't know much about that, but...

Spotify proving very popular is a way to listen to us internationally. Thank you for that. On YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. And out at YouTube Podcasts, it's single best idea.

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