Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert Kaplan & Stephanie Roth
04:35 Share

Financial professionals, MassMutual is more than just insurance. They offer comprehensive wealth management solutions to help your clients grow for the future. With their open architecture, you have the freedom to provide a broad range of options to best serve clients' needs. It's a feeling of independence and autonomy, but still with the full support of a trusted team of experts. It's a feeling you won't find just anywhere.

The feeling is MassMutual. Learn more at massmutual.com slash wealthmanagement. There are presentations.

And then there are Canva presentations. With Canva, you can use AI to take your presentation to the next level. You can generate dynamic slides and text with a simple prompt. You can drag and drop graphics and charts from Canva's media library and add interactive elements to plus up your deck. And with collaboration tools built in, the whole team can work together better. You'll love the presentations you can easily design with Canva. Your clients and coworkers will too. Love your work with Canva presentations at canva.com.

Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Single best idea on a Monday. We'll keep it short. It's an incredibly busy week. We have all the major earnings, Apple, all the rest. You know, we're in the heart of it. Umpteen trillion dollars will report this week and give no guidance forward given all the uncertainty that we're on. We have an early jobs report on Friday. And then beginning Friday...

We go to the Miami Grand Prix, the F1 Grand Prix. Comes back from the other side of the world and goes to Miami. So it'll be just an interesting time. Plus all the politics. Mr. Besson, I believe, in a press conference tomorrow. He certainly moved markets today on CNBC and Fox. And, you know, we watched that, observed it, see the markets go from red to green. At least for now, I should say they went from red to green. Robert Kaplan with us.

He's the vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. He's former president of the Dallas Fed, someone that beautifully links the business world to the economics world, the Fed world, and also back to the heritage of the University of Kansas. Robert Kaplan on Washington and Doge. The nub of the issue right now is it's unclear how much cost savings we're getting out of Doge.

Okay? And I think that's part of this discussion. And I think they're still a little bit wedded that we're going to get the offset, we're going to get revenue from tariffs, and that'll help us in the deleveraging, it'll help us justify a bigger tax cut. And I think all the studies I've looked at have shown that every dollar of tariff revenue you get, you give it back

a portion of it in terms of lower growth and damaging groups. But that's the key to, I think, why they're clinging to these tariffs at higher levels, not at zero. And I think they may be better served letting go a little bit on that concept. And to touch on there, I'm really focused on the growth

changes, the growth dynamics that we see off of this moment of a tariff trade war. Special shout out to David Gurra, Up and Auto. He had a lot of fun with it. But, you know, I did some research on a gatineau, I believe it is, across the river

From Ottawa, 71% French-speaking is the population, and really only, I believe, 11% or 12% English-speaking. We forget about the bilingual nature of Canada and all of that heritage. We'll have coverage of that tomorrow. And again, what an odd end of April. We're into May 2nd. Excuse me. I'm gasping over Stephanie Ross' number for the jobs report.

We were at 200-something last time. The survey is 130,000 nonfirm payrolls. And Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research is at 90,000, 9-0, this Friday. Let's listen. The thing that we haven't really talked about yet when it comes to the labor market is we also have a significant reduction from an immigration perspective. There's going to be conflicting forces on the unemployment rate where you have

the slowdown in the economy, putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate, yet a lot of jobs supply reducing because of immigration, putting downward pressure. So that's why the unemployment rate is not going to rise as much in our forecast versus what would otherwise be the case. Stephanie Roth there on the dynamics, really sophisticated dynamics.

of how Michael McKee and others come up with the unemployment rate given reduced immigration and increasing, potentially increasing joblessness as well. We're on your commute across the nation. Good morning, 99.1 FM in Washington, 92.9 FM in Boston and Bloomberg 1130. And around the world, good morning on YouTube as well. We're out on YouTube podcasts. This is Single Best Idea.

Time is precious and so are our pets. So time with our pets is extra precious. That's why we started Dutch. Dutch provides 24-7 access to licensed vets with unlimited virtual visits and follow-ups for up to five pets. You can message a vet at any time and schedule a video visit the same day. Our vets can even prescribe medication for many ailments and shipping is always free. With Dutch, you'll get more time with your pets and year-round peace of mind when it comes to their vet care.

There is a lot of things happening in the global economy right now. From trade wars. Tariffs are a tax. Taxes, all else equal, are a drag on economic activity. To market sell-offs. Everyone's been betting on American exceptionalism. Now it turns out that America is exceptionally bad. On the FT News Briefing, we bring you the biggest stories happening now in business and finance, all just in 10 minutes. Listen to the FT News Briefing wherever you get your podcasts.