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cover of episode Tariff Uncertainty Ahead of Fed Meeting

Tariff Uncertainty Ahead of Fed Meeting

2025/5/7
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Bloomberg Surveillance
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People
C
Christel Rendu de Lint
F
Frances Donald
L
Lisa Mateo
M
Mike Green
V
Vishal Khanduja
Topics
Mike Green: 我设计的对冲高收益市场的产品，通过合成敞口、证券借贷费用以及十年来一直使用的平滑信用风险模型，在今年取得了第一百分位的优异表现，并且这种策略在过去的十二个信用收紧和宽松周期中都取得了成功。被动投资并非真正被动，它是一种系统性算法策略，资金持续流入被动策略导致估值和价格持续上涨，这存在缺陷。被动投资策略占据美国市场市值约45%，持续推高估值和价格，这种现象类似于庞氏骗局，存在系统性风险，可能引发市场大幅波动。当前美国政治经济形势类似于罗马共和国衰亡时期，特朗普可能扮演类似于改革者的角色，但缺乏罗斯福总统那样的适应能力和有效治理能力。退休投资应关注自身需求而非他人期望，并考虑固定收益投资，以降低系统性风险。 Christel Rendu de Lint: 在经济和政治环境不确定性较大的情况下，投资配置不应过于极端，避免过度乐观或悲观。加征关税，无论幅度大小，都会导致经济增长放缓和通货膨胀上升。欧洲经济正在发生变化，财政支出增加，企业管理者思维方式也在转变，但其效果还有待观察。美国“美国优先”政策促使欧洲国家加强合作，应对挑战。瑞士法郎升值对瑞士央行和企业构成挑战，但瑞士企业已适应了这种竞争环境。在不确定性较大的情况下，投资配置应保持多元化，选择抗周期性强、定价能力强的行业和资产类别，并关注美元汇率波动。 Frances Donald: 当前经济数据缺乏清晰度，使得预测通货膨胀、就业和实际GDP的路径变得困难，这给美联储的决策带来了极大的不确定性。通货膨胀数据可能比就业数据更早出现，这将使美联储的政策调整变得更加复杂。当前的就业市场与以往不同，人口结构变化和移民政策对就业市场的影响不容忽视，这使得对经济衰退的判断变得更加复杂。 Vishal Khanduja: 近期就业数据强劲，与其他经济指标存在差异，美联储可能会继续关注经济下行风险，而非通货膨胀上行风险。美联储目前没有必要立即采取行动，因为其双重目标并未受到直接威胁，金融市场功能也正常运行。关税导致的价格上涨可能是暂时性的，消费者和企业会做出调整。企业利润率下降可能导致需求下降，进而影响就业市场。短期市场可能已经预判到美联储未来降息的可能性，但其具体时间点仍存在不确定性。未来18个月的长期债券收益率走势很大程度上取决于美国能否成功达成贸易协议以及财政赤字削减计划的可信度。目前企业融资状况良好，债券发行市场运行正常。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 7th, 2025Featuring:1) Mike Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for equities, what's behind the jobs report figures, the "ETF-ification" of the market, and talks about why he believes the "obsession" with inflation is overblown. US stock futures rose and the dollar gained as China and the US prepared to hold their first confirmed trade talks since President Trump unleashed his global tariff war.2) Christel Rendu de Lint, co-CEO at Vontobel Asset Management, joins to discuss the global economic outlook amid the tariff environment and favorable asset classes post-tariff announcement. With China and the US preparing for trade talks, the meeting will focus on de-escalation rather than reaching a deal, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the current tariff rates aren’t sustainable.3) Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC Capital Markets, on slower growth and higher prices in the US economy. The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday is next up for investors, with traders looking for clues on how soon the central bank could embark on policy easing and how deep the rate-cutting cycle might be.4) Vishal Khanduja, Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on why today's Fed meeting won't be about a rate move, but decoding the Powell puzzle. US Treasuries slipped ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, with investors betting on a slower pace of monetary easing due to data suggesting economic resilience. The Fed's decision and comments from Chair Jay Powell to be closely scrutinized for insight into officials' interpretation of recent data.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on high-schoolers with $70,000-a-year job offers and the FT's story on sandals in the workplace.Eric Mollo

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