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cover of episode Tariff Uncertainty Ahead of the Fed Meeting

Tariff Uncertainty Ahead of the Fed Meeting

2025/5/6
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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J
Jeffrey Rosenberg
J
Joe Mazzola
T
Torsten Slok
Z
Zohran Mamdani
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Torsten Slok: 我认为关税已经对美国经济产生了负面影响。企业正在减少投资,物价正在上涨,这符合滞胀的定义。如果这种冲击持续下去,最终会导致经济衰退。消费者信心已经受到打击,高收入消费者的支出也开始放缓。从区域性联储的调查来看,新订单正在下降,资本支出计划正在减少,支付价格正在上涨。这意味着销售将放缓,价格将上涨。随着来自中国的集装箱数量大幅减少,未来几周商店货架将出现空缺。关税的冲击是永久性的,我们需要适应新的均衡状态,即价格更高,销售额更低。关税的成本必须由某一方承担,如果企业不承担,最终将由消费者承担。目前来看,企业似乎正在试图将成本转嫁给消费者,但这种转嫁并非显而易见。美联储面临两难境地:一方面,后视镜中的数据显示经济状况良好;另一方面,前视镜中的数据显示经济正在放缓,甚至可能面临衰退。美联储可能会继续关注后视镜数据,但需要警惕经济可能出现的冻结和衰退风险。在滞胀环境下,美联储需要决定是控制通货膨胀还是刺激经济增长。目前的点状图显示,美联储更倾向于关注经济增长。 Jeffrey Rosenberg: 关税带来的不确定性是难以衡量的,这与风险不同。市场对关税的不确定性反应强烈,但随后又出现反弹。这种反弹并不意味着市场已经完全消化了关税的不确定性。关税对通货膨胀的影响是复杂的,可能存在通货膨胀和经济下滑的矛盾。美联储需要在控制通货膨胀和刺激经济增长之间取得平衡。长期利率与短期利率的脱节是滞胀环境下的一个后果。在固定收益投资组合中,需要谨慎选择能够提供保护的资产,这与以往的策略可能有所不同。债券市场可能正在回归到金融危机前的行为模式,长期利率上涨而短期利率下降。 Joe Mazzola: 4月初股市暴跌后,散户投资者进行了减仓,但随后又开始买入,特别是科技股和ETF。这表明投资者仍在寻找机会,并可能通过卖出看跌期权来降低风险。不同年龄段的投资者行为有所不同,高仓位投资者倾向于减仓,而低仓位投资者则倾向于增持。贸易逆差的扩大表明消费者正在提前购买商品,以应对未来价格上涨的预期。企业也正在采取观望态度,等待政策的明朗。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 6th, 2025Featuring:1) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, joins for an extended discussion on tariffs, the outlook for the US economy, a potential recession in 2025, and this week's Fed meeting. Global stocks fell today due to concerns about the trade war's impact on companies and the world economy. Recent optimism fueled by US trade concessions is fading, and markets are bracing for an economic slowdown, with investors reducing exposure to the US and expecting fewer Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.2) Jeffrey Rosenberg, Portfolio Manager: Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund at BlackRock, offers his outlook for the US economy, signals from the bond market, and long/short strategies as investors weigh how to play stocks and bonds. Investors are coming around to the view that the Fed won’t cut interest rates as early or as deeply as earlier anticipated. While it’s expected to leave interest rates on hold this week, money markets have pushed back the timing of the first reduction to July and see three cuts by year-end, rather than the four they had expected a week ago. 3) Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab, talks about client activity, where investors are playing risk in markets, and what concerns they're expressing amid growing economic uncertainty. While the spot VIX index has fallen to near where it was before stocks slumped on tariff fears in early April, the VIX futures curve is signaling concerns that the market turbulence may return.4) Zohran Mamdani, NYC Mayoral Candidate and NYC assemblyman, discusses his candidacy for mayor, his proposed policies, and whether Democratic Socialists like him are a key piece of the future of the national Democratic platform. According to one Democrat - NY House Rep. Pat Ryan - Democrats must take more risks to counter the GOP power trifecta successfully or they could face an extended stint on the sidelines.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including reports on the fashion and fundraising from the Met Gala and a WSJ exclusive on the Trump administration holding schools responsible for students paying back their loans.

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