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cover of episode The Fed Decides and Rate Cuts Remain Uncertain

The Fed Decides and Rate Cuts Remain Uncertain

2025/5/8
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
K
Ken Shinoda
L
Lisa Mateo
M
Michael Nathanson
N
Nouriel Roubini
R
Richard Portes
Topics
我观察到,尽管存在贸易不确定性,但美元的疲软、亚洲国家持有的巨额外汇储备以及对贸易协议的希望,导致新兴市场货币升值。中期来看,我对美国经济持乐观态度,因为技术进步(特别是人工智能)和强劲的资本支出将推动经济增长。虽然短期内可能出现衰退,但我认为这将是短暂而温和的,因为美联储致力于控制通货膨胀。即使关税上升到10%-13%,其对经济增长的影响也将是温和的,因为货币汇率的波动可以部分抵消冲击。然而,与中国的脱钩将带来更大的负面影响。市场压力、美联储的独立性、经济顾问的建议以及国会中的微弱多数派,共同限制了不合理的政策,最终促使贸易政策有所缓和。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 8th, 2025Featuring:1) Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at NYU and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, joins to discuss the Fed decision and a recent op-ed on why he believes the US economy will survive the Trump shock and thrive. It comes as Fed Chair Jay Powell says he won't lower borrowing costs until there's more certainty on the direction of trade policy, which will have to come from the White House.2) Ken Shinoda, Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine Capital, talks growth and inflation, signals from the bond market, and pressures in MBS market. Bond investors continue to search for clarity after Chair Powell suggested the Fed will wait for conviction on whether the next move is a cut based on the economy moving towards a recession or whether it's a move towards more restrictive policy due to high inflation becoming entrenched into the economy.3) Richard Portes, professor at London Business School, joins in studio to talk tariffs and the dollar exchange rate, risks of a financial crisis, and a potential US-UK trade deal. The announcement is expected to boost the UK economy and markets, but investors will closely examine the extent to which Trump is willing to backtrack from his sweeping tariffs imposed on April 2.4) Michael Nathanson, founding partner and Senior Research Analyst at Moffettnathanson, discusses his note on The Beginning of the End for Search in reaction to Apple's VP of Services comments. Apple is considering revamping Safari to focus on AI-powered search engines, potentially ending its longtime partnership with Google. Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of services, believes AI search providers will eventually replace standard search engines like Google and that Apple will bring those options to Safari in the future.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on REAL ID Day and a NYT story on Agatha Christie, who died in 1976, teaching a class in AI.

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