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cover of episode The Fed Decision and Middle East Conflict

The Fed Decision and Middle East Conflict

2025/6/18
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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J
Jack Devine
L
Leslie Palti-Guzman
L
Lisa Mateo
M
Michael Darda
W
Win Thin
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Jack Devine: 我认为美国和以色列在伊朗情报收集方面合作良好,这使我们对当前局势有充分的了解。虽然存在犯错的机会,但这不会是因为缺乏情报。作为一名情报人员,我始终认为政治领导人应该更信任情报部门提供的真实信息,而不是其他国家领导人带有既得利益的陈述。不应低估伊朗局势的危险性,且需要考虑核武器可能的引爆方式,不仅仅是通过导弹。如果美国军事介入,我认为伊朗的处境将非常不利,因为伊朗的军事实力与美国相比非常悬殊,几乎没有防御能力,最终可能被迫接受无条件投降。美国有能力摧毁伊朗的福尔多核设施,但这需要多次打击,且只有B2轰炸机可以执行。摧毁福尔多核设施是唯一的选择,虽然以色列可能认为有其他替代方案,但美国可能并不认同。我们正面临最终局面,要么摧毁福尔多核设施,要么允许伊朗继续发展核武器。我认为各国都在为自身利益努力,并在寻找建立盟友的机会。美国政策制定者正在努力决定,以色列是否会在摧毁福尔多核设施后停止,还是会推动伊朗的政权更迭。摧毁福尔多核设施是明智之举,但我希望不是由美国来完成。在我看来,分析人士和政治领导人常常低估人们在困境中的忍耐力,高估了政权更迭的可能性。伊朗国内虽然有很多对阿亚图拉不满的人,但没有武装组织,也没有高层分裂,因此政权更迭的可能性不大。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 18th, 2025Featuring:1) Jack Devine, founder at The Arkin Group, joins to discuss what US involvement in the Middle East conflict could look like and how US national security could weigh striking Iran. An overnight meeting between President Trump and his national security team has raised speculation that the US may join Israel's attacks against Iran. Trump has posted demands for Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" and threatened a possible strike against the country's leader, while Iran has reiterated its intention to respond with force if the US gets involved.2) Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, joins for a look ahead to the Fed and talks about the outlook for inflation and markets. Socks and bonds posted small gains as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and new economic forecasts. The Fed's latest projections for growth, unemployment, and interest rates will be closely watched.3) Win Thin, Global Head: Markets Strategy Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., reacts to jobless claims and looks ahead to the Fed and potential for more inflation in the US. Fed policymakers face heightened uncertainty as geopolitical tension add to the inflation and labor market risks that are tied to the Trump administration’s tariff policies.4) Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder at Energy Vista, talks about rapidly rising oil prices and if there will be any let up as Middle East fighting continues. Oil prices pulled back from a near five-month high, with Brent crude trading below $76 a barrel, as markets awaited news on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. Middle Eastern oil that loads outside the Persian Gulf and Malaysian crude are gaining popularity among Asian buyers due to the Israel-Iran conflict threatening the Strait of Hormuz.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders getting a 400% pay raise and a WSJ story on private space stations racing to be the next popular travel destination.

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