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cover of episode The Rally Continues amid Uncertainty Across Markets

The Rally Continues amid Uncertainty Across Markets

2025/6/10
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Bloomberg Surveillance

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People
D
David Doyle
F
Francisco Blanch
I
Isabelle Mateos y Lago
J
Jeff deGraaf
L
Lisa Mateo
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Isabelle Mateos y Lago:我认为欧洲的整体氛围正在发生积极转变,吸引了来自美国和亚洲的投资者。德国宣布将在未来十年内投资超过一万亿欧元用于基础设施和国防,这标志着欧洲情绪的重大转变。欧盟委员会也宣布了一项计划,将投入8000亿欧元用于欧洲的重新武装,这加速了德拉吉报告中提出的结构性改革议程。现在布鲁塞尔的氛围与以往不同,人们渴望倾听企业的意见,并优先采取措施促进经济增长。欧洲经济的增长速度超过了大多数人的预期,第一季度GDP环比增长0.6%。市场预计德国的支出将增加欧元区的增长轨迹,因此欧元区高负债国家的利差并未扩大。各国保持财政正统计划,加上德国等财政保守国家愿意增加支出,这对市场来说是个好消息。欧洲的社会保障模式不会改变,但德国正在加大公共基础设施和国防领域的投资。欧洲正在努力简化监管负担,这可能是受到了美国的启发。欧洲人口老龄化,劳动力减少,需要加速生产力增长,目前欧洲正在采取措施实现这一目标。基础设施和国防的投入将支持生产力增长的加速,预计到本十年末,欧元区的趋势增长可能提高1%至1.5%。 Isabelle Mateos y Lago:欧盟坚信自由贸易的好处,但意识到美国并不真正想降低关税。欧洲正在努力限制损失,接受美国可能提高关税,并加倍与其他伙伴的全球贸易。欧洲正在加倍发展全球贸易,并试图向世界展示其开放贸易和商业的形象,这将有助于提高生产力。欧盟在贸易谈判中是统一的,因为只有欧盟委员会有权进行谈判。各方已经意识到他们处于一种相互依赖的关系中,贸易禁运将造成严重损害。目前在伦敦举行的会谈主要关注重新开放稀土的流动,因为美国许多供应链的运转依赖于这些材料。政府在国防上的支出如果用于研发等具有军民两用目的的项目,可能会产生溢出效应,从而提高欧洲的生产力,并对经济增长产生更持久的影响。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 10th, 2025Featuring:1) Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Global Economist at BNP Paribas, joins in studio for a discussion on the global impact of tariffs and what to expect from CPI. It comes as the US and China are resuming trade talks in London, aiming to agree on exports of key tech and industrial goods and avoid escalating their trade war. The outcome of the talks is being closely watched by financial markets.2) Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities at Bank of America Securities, joins to discuss how the trade war is upending agriculture market fundamentals and the outlook for energy and global commodities. It comes as the oil market is expected to be in surplus later this year due to a Saudi-led output surge and increasing production from outside OPEC+. Its trajectory will depend on factors such as OPEC+ output, trade wars, and demand growth.3) David Doyle, Head of Economics and leads coverage in the Americas at Macquarie, discusses the US labor market and inflation as well as the view from Canada. Despite an increase in optimism from small businesses and market watchers amid an equity market rally, the uncertainty index rose, driven by concerns over President Trump's tariffs and tax legislation, with taxes ranking as the single most important problem.4) Jeff deGraaf, Head: Technical Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins for an extended discussion on market fundamentals amid continued policy uncertainty from DC. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT report on sharing while traveling and Business Insider's story on one Wall Street analyst using AI to predict a major antitrust case.

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