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this is the bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m eastern on apple carplay or android auto with the bloomberg business app listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on youtube if i were like a financial advisor i'd be telling people just relax you know take the long term okay here we go i'm not sure if that works but somebody who does this stuff for a living sarah ponczak she's a senior vice president ubs
private wealth management she used to be here with us right she did she bailed on us southern Florida so I just checked Miami weather today 87 and so that's just like more power to you yeah it sounds like we like the seasons here I don't know Sarah thank you so much for joining us we always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time here so what are the the conversations you're having with your UBS clients these days I mean they've seen the markets whip around they've seen
you know news just kind of move the market as it relates to tariffs and trade policy and maybe things they haven't really thought about too much in the past what are your conversations like with your clients well it's getting very toasty down here in south florida so gearing up for the summer and i think based off your statement paul you would make a great financial advisor yeah i'm sure you're having those conversations too but no i i think in all seriousness
Just think of the month that we just came off of, the month of April.
If you were someone, as the three of us are, who was watching the markets every single day, every single moment, every single second, checking futures first thing in the morning and before bedtime going to sleep, you'd pull your hair out. You would drive yourself insane. And for many of our clients who are, frankly, longer-term investors, they're not day traders,
You know, if you would have went to bed at the beginning of April and woke up at the end, you would have missed out on a whole lot of indigestion and you could have relaxed and not driven yourself crazy. And I think it's important to put the volatility in context. Look, at the end of the day, yes, we are witnessing a sea change and we are going to see changes to trade policy that could
could affect the economy and very well probably will affect the economy. But if you put volatility into context and you think about the stock market and how much volatility you typically witness as an investor, I mean, since 1998, just to put some numbers in front of you, we've seen 19 years with entry-year drawdowns greater than 10%. And yet in 21 of those 27 years,
we finished the year higher stocks finished the year higher and if you put that in percentage terms because maybe that's easier to visualize it that's 70 of years we saw entry or drawdowns of greater than 10 and in 80 of years the stock market finished the year higher so this is part of investing i think warren buffett said it very very well last weekend before announcing his retirement he said if you're someone who watching a 15 correction in the stock market makes you freak out
Maybe you need to reassess your investment philosophy because that's just part of being investor, frankly. And many of your clients are CEOs who do have operations in China. What are they telling you? How are they being impacted right now? Their businesses are certainly being very impacted. We were actually in New York last week visiting a few clients. I wanted to come in to see you guys at Bloomberg, but we just had back-to-back meetings and I couldn't unfortunately make it in.
You know, it's been really difficult. I spoke with one client last weekend who's a CEO and they're in the clothing business and they import a lot of goods, as you can imagine, from China. And she said she just came off of, you know, the most difficult few weeks of her life. And the company, frankly, is facing paralysis. You know, we have 145 percent tariffs with China right now and companies can't operate anymore.
in that environment. So it's over the next few weeks, and I'm sure that you guys have had many conversations where people have told you this. So over the next few weeks, we're really gonna start to see the effects of that. And we're gonna start to see empty your shelves. We're going to start to see the effects of fewer ships coming into US ports, bringing in goods because no one really wants to operate under a 145% tariff regime. When the expectation, we have negotiations in Switzerland this weekend,
is that that's not going to be the end goal. We are going to see progress move at least in the right direction. No one knows what that number is going to be at the end of the day. But for CEOs and companies trying to operate right now, it's really become impossible because they're just waiting for some type of deal to be struck, or at least there to be movement to a lower tariff regime because no one can operate right now.
Sarah, if your clients want to diversify, where do you suggest they do that? So I think this year has been a really great opportunity to look overseas. It's the first time in a long time that we're actually seeing international stocks outperform the United States. I don't think that means that you need to completely dump the U.S. And yes, there's been a lot of talk about
the end of U.S. exceptionalism. I'm not sure we're necessarily on the same page of that. But still, I do think it's good to make sure that you're right-sizing your portfolios and you do have some exposure to international. Our team has been increasing our exposure to international a bit. I also think
Gold, even though we have seen quite the run this year, still offers a nice hedge for the worst case scenario. And having, say, a low mid-single digit exposure to gold in portfolios isn't a bad idea either. And then bonds. Bonds, yes, were also very volatile in April. But again, if you fell asleep at the beginning of April, woke up at the end, you didn't see nearly as much volatility as you witnessed.
You know, based off of all the headlines and especially seeing as though, you know, our economists do expect that starting in September, we could see 100 basis points of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Although, yes, that's right now. We're very much in a wait and see mode, as Fed Chair Powell did, you know, re-insist this week.
you know, that would be something that would be reinvigorating to bonds. So bonds as well are a nice diversifier for someone who's not comfortable with, you know, the ups and downs of stock market volatility every day. And then I would add one more to private markets, private equity.
private credit, private real estate even. Those are areas of the market where you're not going to be witnessing the day-to-day volatility of stocks, but you still might get equity-like returns. So looking to incorporate private markets into your portfolio if you're someone who can handle the illiquidity of those types of investments at least. What's the top question you're getting from your clients now?
What the heck is going on? What should we be doing? I think it's so interesting. April was obviously a month in which we were talking to clients every day. We were fielding multiple calls every day because there was concern.
Ever since we've seen the rally, that's very much calmed down, which just, I think, gives insight into investor sentiment right now. People feel pretty comfortable after the latest equity rally. Everyone wants to know what next, but unfortunately, none of us have insight into the administration.
There was a headline that dropped this morning from President Trump talking about 80% tariff rates. Maybe that's the best place to be for China. I don't think anyone believes that's really where we're going to end up. But everyone wants to know what's coming next. And unfortunately, no one has a crystal ball. And when we are operating in an environment where markets are so attuned to headlines in the day-to-day, that's when you really have to focus on the long-term, especially if it's a client who recently sold their business. They had a large...
liquidity event. They're sitting on a pile of cash. I mean, how do you deploy that? What's the right strategy to get that invested and not feel like you're paralyzed when the headlines are coming so quickly and there's so many twists and turns in the administration policies? Sarah, thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate checking in with you. Sarah Ponczak, good friend of Bloomberg. She's the Senior Vice President, UBS Private Wealth Management down there in South Florida, getting it done
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You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Shana Sissel joins us, CEO of Banrion Capital.
- Shayna, what kind of conversations are you having with your clients today? Are they glass half full people buying or glass half empty people saying this thing could get even worse from here? - So under the caveat that I don't deal necessarily with individuals
or even advisors that are looking broadly at markets. I kind of deal with a subset of advisors who really like to look at other ways to manage risk in portfolios, specifically through alternative strategies. The vast majority of the conversations I'm having
are with advisors who are concerned about continued volatility in the market and how they can implement some risk management strategies using alternatives to kind of bolster portfolios to ride through the volatility. And that's really where our focus has been. But I think the takeaway from that is that there's increased interest
from advisors and their clients and finding ways to deal with what will largely be an extended period of volatility because the administration that is in power right now here is known for making kind of vast decisions, pulling them back, putting them back in. And I think that that doesn't bode well for calm markets. And so that's the kind of conversations we're having. So in a way,
in the world of alternatives which i consider kind of private equity private credit hedge funds those types of things how how do alternatives fit into that kind of portfolio in a time of maybe higher uh uncertainty
So most of our advisors are first and foremost looking at the easiest and quickest way to implement alternative strategies into client portfolios. So that's through ETFs and mutual funds and interval funds, mostly ETFs at this moment. We have a suite of clients that offer ETF solutions that are hedge fund like.
And I think that that's kind of the key here. Private equity, private credit, that's equity and credit at the end of the day. They may not mark the market, but they are very much influenced by what's going on in the public markets for equity and credit. But the hedge fund like strategies are doing investment philosophies that are
inherently diversifying and inherently about hedging out risk, hence hedge fund. So there are ETF mutual funds and interval fund strategies that implement those. And there are things like BTAL, which is an equity market neutral fund, CBLS, which is an actively managed long short equity fund, RDFI, which is closed-end fund arbitrage. Yep.
MRSK. So these are like hedge fund like strategies. And if you look at how they've performed during this period, they've actually done extraordinarily well and outperformed the market. So implementing strategies that are diversifying in client portfolios is how we manage risk during volatile times. We're speaking with Shana Sissel, CEO of Banrion Capital. Jess. Sissel.
So I actually want to talk to you, Shaina, about your view when it comes to retail. I know we'll have Walmart actually reporting earnings next week and we'll have a Home Depot Lowe's target the following week after that later in May. How are you viewing that? Because I know Walmart in particular was trading more like a growth stock before its last earnings report. There are only a couple of MAGA7 stocks that actually had done better than that over a 12-month span like Nvidia and
and some others like that too in Tesla. But how do you view and how are you positioning when it comes to retail shares?
So I'll start by saying that we have this very weird dichotomy going on with the consumer here in the US where their confidence numbers are not great. And we're seeing sentiment with consumers really being negative, but their spending in the retail actual spending numbers remain quite strong. So there's this weird dichotomy there that makes it hard to kind of predict
how some of these retail names are going to do. Now that said, a company like Walmart, you got to look at, that's a company that has some pricing power, has the ability to kind of bully around some of their suppliers. And if we continue to have
above average tariffs, specifically with China, where a lot of the goods, especially the lower cost goods that we have here in the U.S., come from China. That's going to be positive for something like Walmart. You would also intuitively think that would be good for something like Target, but Target's had some execution issues as of late. So it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. But if you look at some of the lower tariffs,
the lower the, sorry, retail companies that are focused on the lower income consumer. They have done well, but it's kind of the middle of the pack names that have done best.
But I would think that if the tariffs stay quite high, we haven't seen that come through in the numbers yet because there was some pre-ordering of increasing inventories before tariffs took place. But I think as that changes,
you might see the middle income consumers start to move into the Walmarts of the world. And that would be positive for a name like Walmart. But you have to be really particular where you pick your spots in retail because retail is a very large space and it includes names like Nike and
Adidas, Under Armour, and some of the apparel brands. And those brands will be disproportionately impacted by the tariffs. So I would probably stay away from apparel brands, shoes, things of that nature, anything that is manufactured overseas, specifically in China.
and focus more on, like you said, like where you go to buy your groceries and things of that nature, where people are gonna be wanting to save money because there's really no way to avoid the tariffs and other essential areas.
Shana, thanks so much for joining us. Shana Sissel, she's the CEO of Banrion Capital, offering her thoughts on these markets. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Our next guest, she's now popular at cocktail parties. Joanna Gallego joins us. She's a partner at Bomb Blocks. Where do you go? I mean, there's so much opportunity now in fixed income, Joanna, and your ETF.
structure has something for everybody, it seems. Where are you seeing the flows these days? Yeah, I think where we want to focus people's attention on is the income and fixed income. It's at historically high levels, and that income is really offsetting all of this volatility that we're seeing. It's not 2022. So when we entered 2022, rates were at
all-time lows, and they zoomed up 450 basis points that year. So bonds were under pressure, equities under pressure, and everybody was sort of figuring, like, couldn't make sense of 2022 because both bonds and equities went down. So what it felt like was that bonds weren't working for you. Well, now bonds are working for you in your portfolio. They've reclaimed their place as bonds
you know protection in your portfolio and if you look at what happened you know year to date and even in april um the equity markets were down but bonds even even in some cases in some weeks where they were down they were protecting your portfolio so we want people to focus on the fact that bonds are working for you income is really upsetting volatility and then you know we think that the themes of resiliency and economic um positivity are still there and i'd love to tell you about it
So what about when you're talking about short duration U.S. treasuries versus other corners when you're talking about investment grade corporates? What are you seeing there? Yeah, so one thing we want to remember is that a lot of focus was on the 10-year and all the volatility we saw in the 10-year. I think it reversed itself over 7.5% in a week, I think the second week of April. So people were really nervous about the long side of the curve. And since 2022, we've seen lots of bouts of volatility in the 20-year and the 10-year period.
That's what it's supposed to do. It's supposed to reflect the uncertainty because it's a long dated bond. So people have been going to the short side, to the six month and one year, because there's really attractive rates there. In April, they were over 4%. They're not just a place to park your cash. They are the safe haven of the treasury curve. What you wanna do is you wanna be short interest rate risk. So we recommend, even in corporates,
that you should be shortening your interest rate risk and shorten your duration. It's okay to reach for corporates right now and get into high quality corporate debt, even high yield corporate debt,
benefit from the yields that are there, but take the interest rate risk out. And so that's why we recommend short corporate debt. Where are you seeing the funds flow? Because in your ETF complex at Bondblocks, you guys have something for everybody, it seems like. Yeah. Where are you seeing the fund flows these days? You're seeing flows into corporate debt. You see a lot of movement in treasuries. It's sort of where you would expect.
Maybe some softening in high yields is what we've seen in the last week or so. We think that what you should be doing in these markets is trading in precision. So what we offer and what we explain is that now, because of the ETF structure, you can actually trade the higher quality segment of high yield, if you will. So you can trade triple B high yield.
you're going to be able to benefit from the higher income and high yield, but you're up in quality. That's one rung down from investment grade. In investment grade, we say reach all the way to triple B because the incremental default risk of triple B is negligible compared to triple A. So you're getting all the good credit quality, plus you're getting an
a lift in yield in triple B space. So being able to trade these precise and lean into these precise characteristics and think fixed income are really powerful. And if you haven't talked to your advisor and you don't know where your interest rate risk is in your portfolio, and you're not sure exactly how it's any different than your ag position, you know, you should be asking that question. Whenever you're speaking with your clients, how are their questions different this year versus last year?
I'll tell you one question we get all the time and we talk a lot about this and so sometimes some things repeat. I heard it earlier this morning on the show like well spreads are tight so we're not going to go into corporates. We're not going to take on any credit risk. We have heard that since 2022. I'm not going to come in until I see distress levels of spread.
That's an investor that's trying to time the market. They're trying to say, I want the best possible return today. And they have missed all of the return from 2023, 2024. They haven't enjoyed these income levels I'm talking about. So we still hear that. We still hear, I think, towards the end of last year, well, spreads are tight. And when spreads are tight, what it's reflecting in corporate bonds is it's reflecting the fact that that's a positive economic return.
outlook and there's less risk to taking on that credit risk. So if you dial down the interest rate risk and you take that credit risk, it's actually good for your portfolio. Income is offsetting this equity volatility. Been a good time. I mean, again, the bond market, they're the cool kids again. They're back. Joanna Gallegos, thank you so much for joining us. Joanna Gallegos, she's a partner at BondBlocks.
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I didn't know it was a thing until we met our next guest. Ankur Daga, he's the CEO. His firm is called Angara, A-N-G-A-R-A, online retailer. Ankur, thanks so much for joining us here in studio. Thanks for having me. You're the CEO of a business, you know, kind of a global business. How are you guys in the jewelry business?
Dealing with tariffs. Do tariffs impact the global jewelry business? Yeah, quite a bit. It's kind of the perfect storm. So diamond prices have been down 40 to 45 percent over the last three years. And that's is that because of the synthetic diamonds? Because of lab grown. Exactly. Lab diamond. Yeah. Which is something I learned about recently. OK, I didn't realize this. OK, tell us about that. Yeah. So they're chemically, physically, optically identical to natural diamonds, but now 90 percent less.
So they're a perfect substitute for natural. So the industry has been reeling because of that. De Beers revenue in 2022 was six point six billion. Twenty twenty four was three point three billion. So it halved. And this with tariffs and with high gold prices, it's a double whammy now. So the industry is going to go through a lot in the very near term.
Wow. I have so many questions. I didn't realize this was a... I have a question. I don't know, for Lisa and Jess. Would you be indifferent to getting a real diamond versus a synthetic diamond? I was going to ask that question. That's what I was curious about. It's absolutely...
The same, except that it... Is it as strong? Does it last as long? Right, how durable is this diamond? On my finger, and it's lasted me 25 years so far. Yeah. I mean, will they last? It's the same thing. So there's not a jeweler in the world with a loop that could tell the difference. Chemically, physically, optically identical, both tens on the Mauss scale. Yeah, it's still the hardest substance on Earth. Absolutely. So, I go back to the question. Mr...
Mateo were to say, hey, I've got this beautiful brain, but it's not real. You know what? I would be all for it. Okay. Yes, I would because it's more affordable option. I would. I got to say. Interesting. I don't know. I think I'd want to. See, this is a huge issue. I have a thing. All right. Let's get back to the business at hand.
How is your business? How is the online jewelry business these days? It's still quite strong. We've seen the industry overall has been flat for the last three months. But before that, we saw pretty substantial growth. We're starting to grow again now. But with uncertainty that's rising, jewelry is interesting because it gets hit first in any downturn. And so we're a little bit we're hopeful that that doesn't happen. But we're being cautious at the moment.
That's interesting, too, just given the dynamic in recent years. Like, what's the setup moving forward? Like, what's the outlook that you see after the last few years between kind of the differences we've talked about?
Yeah, so if I was to rewind back to COVID, COVID was amazing for the jewelry industry just in terms of people couldn't go out, they couldn't travel, all that money went to luxury goods and jewelry was a prime beneficiary. It's interesting because you're not really going anywhere. So people were still buying jewelry. That's right. There was nowhere else to put money. So yeah. And so the industry really took off at that point. And there was moderation in 23, 24 after that as people started going out again.
And so we're starting to see growth again now after a while. So it's pretty exciting. I mean, we've seen e-commerce as a percent of total retail sales just explode during the pandemic. And a lot of folks said you kind of brought forward maybe 10 years of that growth into the pandemic. What's the e-commerce aspect, which is where you guys operate as a part of the overall jewelry business? So about 22% of U.S. sales are online. So it's a pretty big number.
And, you know, as you said at the beginning, it's surprising that people buy jewelry online, but it's a far better option in terms of price. There's so many reviews out there and, you know, it's growing very quickly as overall portion of the market.
So I guess what's kind of next for you moving forward? So we're just launching in India, April 24th. It's a pretty exciting market for us. So just for context, so the overall jewelry industry worldwide is $400 billion, out of which $85 billion for the U.S. and $85 billion for India. So they're the same size market. India is growing a lot faster at 10% to 15% per year, as opposed to 4% in the U.S. But interestingly, U.S. GDP is $30 trillion. Yeah.
India's GDP is 4.3 trillion. So it's a 7x difference, but jewelry consumption is the same, which is pretty amazing. Why is that?
It's cultural. You know, when somebody is getting married, jewelry is a big part of what is gifted. And people think of it as a stable asset. That's an inflation hedge. So it's an investment as much as something that's beautiful. All right. It's fascinating stuff. We love having you in our studio to learn about this business. It's fascinating. We could spend the whole time on just would you take? Right. I would say.
Synthetic diamond versus the rear one, if it's the exact same. I don't know. I'm glad you asked it because I was figuring it out. I was like, how do I brooch this? All right. Ankur Daga, CEO of Angara Online Jewelry. We appreciate him coming into our studios. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple Podcasts.
Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Time for the newspaper segment with Lisa Mateo. Lisa, what do you got for us today? All right, this is for all the space fans. I'm sorry Tom Keene's not here. Exactly. But this Soviet spacecraft, it is falling back to Earth after 50 years.
years. It's called Cosmos 42. It launched back in 1972. So basically what happened, it was meant to travel to Venus, but then it malfunctioned, malfunctioned, you have to lift off, entered into orbit around the Earth. So it's been orbiting. It's only about three feet in diameter, but it has this heat shield so it could actually go through the atmosphere and land on Earth. We don't know where. That's
That's what I was going to ask. Exactly. There's no word on where. Some people have said maybe some experts from the Space Force would place it over the Gulf of Oman, northeast of Africa. But really not sure yet. But it's also the space debris because that can be a concern with things like this, too. So that's another concern of it. Space Force is still a thing, right?
Yes. Yes, okay. I haven't heard anything about it since the initial... That's right, they've been quiet on that front. They have. But you hear these stories of like, sometimes these things do happen, and space debris does come down into people's homes. It's happened before. I live in New Jersey. That's the least of my worries. There's something landing on my head. It falls over. It's happened in Florida. It's happened in Florida. Exactly. A lot of things happen in Florida that you're kind of surprised about. All right, what else do we have here? Okay, so we go from space flight to regular flights. So this is UBS, right? They're trying to cut costs in Asia.
Deal-making slowing because escalating trade tensions. So it's changing the global travel policy So bankers are now not allowed to fly business class on short trips to China Okay so before this they were allowed to book those business flight trips on short ships because they're actually generally lower which I didn't realize and in other markets for the same distance So you have a flight from Hong Kong to Shanghai just under three hours, right? It can cost less than $500 one way for business class. I
Really? So, wow. Yeah, I didn't realize it was so cheap for there. We used to travel a lot for your jobs. So my, like, in investment banking, all the investment banks I worked for, generally, unless times were really tough, if you're
if your flight was five hours or more you can fly business or first class right okay anything less than that was and that was generally the rule unless things were getting so were you allowed or maybe sometimes you could go i was pushing i just asked you to forgive me later you know so i always booked and said oh i'm sorry i must have pushed click the wrong button you know back before bloomberg like bloomberg you have to do everything yourself there's no secretaries no assistants yes um
But back in investment banking, I had lots of people doing stuff. Oh, wow. Living the good life. Just saying, hey, I need to be in Chicago by 8 AM. Just do it. And I'd like to stay here, by the way. And then I got here at Bloomberg, and they're like, wait a minute. I've got to do this myself. I've got to do this. And then you're sitting there on the laptop like, OK, let me look here. That's how you do it. And this is the best way. So anyway. All right, anything else? All right, last one. Pinterest came out with earnings, right? Paul, I know you're not on Pinterest, right? Please.
Jess, are you on Pinterest? I actually am not. I have friends who rave about it though. Yes. Okay. So this is the point. Okay. So what's interesting is that the CEO is saying that their big audience is actually Gen Z. So that's those like up to 28. So they say that's where they go to shop because they're raised on like the internet is this visual content. So basically millennials and Gen X, right? We had them all, but Gen Z has Pinterest.
So you buy on-- You can buy-- yes, there are different links. So it's very visual. It's very pretty. Like if you're redecorating, you want to go to Pinterest to get ideas. I know it because my sister does what she does.
But they're saying it's attracting advertisers because they like that group because Gen Z is the one who's starting like a lot of firsts. Like they're the first to get, you know, insurance or their first credit card. Like that's that time. So they're saying they want to attract these. So now advertisers are coming in. That's why their shares were up this morning too. I was trying to explain to my youngest the whole concept of the yellow pages. Oh, we'll get a look at that. That wasn't a thing for them? Because he's like, how come I see trucks going by that are just AA plumbing? Because it's...
Yellow pages, A comes first in the public. Crazy. So times have changed. This is Matteo, newspapers. Thank you very much for that. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
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