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cover of episode Traders Look to Earnings as Trade Uncertainty Continues

Traders Look to Earnings as Trade Uncertainty Continues

2025/4/28
logo of podcast Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Surveillance

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People
H
Henrietta Treyz
J
Joe Lavorgna
L
Lisa Mateo
R
Robert Kaplan
S
Stephanie Roth
Topics
我观察到美国经济正在经历政府支出削减、移民政策变化和关税政策不确定性带来的多重结构性冲击。这些因素共同作用,对经济造成显著影响,特别是小型企业面临着巨大的生存压力。关税政策的不确定性尤其令人担忧,它给依赖出口的行业,比如农业,带来了极大的风险。此外,移民政策的变化也对劳动力市场造成冲击,导致劳动力短缺和经济增长放缓。目前,虽然没有出现严重的经济衰退迹象,但经济增长正在放缓,未来可能出现更大幅度的下降。美联储需要谨慎应对,关注通货膨胀,避免通胀预期脱锚,同时保持政策灵活性,避免做出具体的预测。企业也正在采取应对措施,许多公司暂停长期计划,重新评估供应链和物流,并调整投资策略。总而言之,当前美国经济面临着多重挑战,需要政府和企业共同努力来应对。

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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF).Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 28th, 2025Featuring:1) Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president, joins for a discussion about structural changes in the US economy, the incoming Fed decision and jobs day, and Fed independence. Sources say Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell recently delivered an impassioned defense of central bank independence when he addressed policymakers and finance ministers during a meeting at the International Monetary Fund, which reportedly drew applause.2) Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, talks about Wolfe's lower-than-consensus NFP call for this week and her expectations for China tariffs. In addition to eco data and trade deals, key company reports this week will be scrutinized for the earnings impact of US trade policies, and fresh readings on the American economy may support hopes of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins for a discussion on how Trump's recent poor polling could make his priorities harder to implement, and why Republicans passing their signature tax bill isn't a given. Voter discontent with President Trump's economic stewardship is sinking his popularity as he approaches the 100-day mark of his second term. Republicans aim to pass Trump's tax plan through a process that wouldn't require Democratic votes, but voter angst and the threat of a recession in the next year could make it challenging for Trump to get everything he wants.4) Joe Lavorgna, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, brings us into the market open and talks about President Trump's tariff policy and whether he believes trade negotiations are on the right track. Investors are watching for signs of progress in US trade negotiations, with the Trump administration working on bilateral trade deals with 17 key partners and drafting a framework to handle negotiations with about 18 countries.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a story from the Wall Street Journal on athletes using Ozempic and Business Insider reporting on chick sales amid rising egg prices.

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