2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker
All-In Podcast
Deep Dive
What is Atreides Management's investment focus?
Atreides Management invests in consumer and tech companies, both publicly and privately, from Series A to mega cap.
Why does Chamath predict fiscal conservatives will be the biggest political winner in 2025?
Chamath predicts fiscal conservatives will be the biggest political winner because they will push for austerity measures, which will help cut waste, fraud, and abuse in the U.S. federal government, leading to more efficient and restrained spending.
Why does Gavin predict Putin will be the biggest political loser in 2025?
Gavin predicts Putin will be the biggest political loser because Russia is becoming a client state of China, and Europe is rearming, which will allow the U.S. to shift resources to the Pacific, making it harder for Putin to achieve his goals, such as reunifying China and Taiwan.
Why does Chamath predict that the MAG-7 will be the biggest business loser in 2025?
Chamath predicts the MAG-7 will be the biggest business loser due to the high concentration of these companies in the indices, which historically foreshadows a significant drawdown. Even if the fundamentals are strong, the concentration risk is too high.
Why does Gavin predict high bandwidth memory will be the best performing asset in 2025?
Gavin predicts high bandwidth memory will be the best performing asset because it is a critical component in GPUs and AI systems, and there is a limited supply, with only a few companies capable of producing it.
Why does Freeberg predict a dramatic rise in socialist movements in the U.S. in 2025?
Freeberg predicts a dramatic rise in socialist movements because the rapid shift towards automation and AI will disrupt employment and income, leaving many people behind. This could fuel demand for socialist policies to address economic disparities.
Why does Chamath predict that stablecoins will be the best performing asset in 2025?
Chamath predicts stablecoins will be the best performing asset because they have decoupled from crypto volatility and are being used in practical business operations. With the potential for widespread adoption and regulatory support, stablecoins could disrupt the traditional financial system and see significant growth.
Why does Gavin predict enterprise application software will be the worst performing asset in 2025?
Gavin predicts enterprise application software will be the worst performing asset because AI models and agents will replace many functions currently handled by these bloated and expensive software suites. The low-cost producers in the AI space will have a significant advantage, leading to a decline in traditional enterprise software.
Why does Chamath believe AI will be a significant trend in 2025?
Chamath believes AI will be a significant trend because it will make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 2023 and 2024. The combination of pre-training, inference time compute, and reasoning will lead to rapid advancements and new capabilities.
Why does Freeberg predict a surge in nuclear power build-out in the U.S. in 2025?
Freeberg predicts a surge in nuclear power build-out in the U.S. because the new government will be more accommodating to deregulation and advanced nuclear technologies. This is necessary to meet competitive demand against China and to scale up electricity production capacity.
What is the most anticipated media for 2025 according to Gavin?
Gavin's most anticipated media for 2025 is the second season of '1923,' a show that he feels hits him the way 'Game of Thrones' did. He is also excited about 'Land Man' and recommends 'Day of the Jackal' and 'Sicario' for streaming.
Why does Chamath predict that the Trump administration will release declassified files in 2025?
Chamath predicts that the Trump administration will release declassified files, including those related to JFK, Epstein, and other conspiracy theories, because it will be a significant source of interesting, salacious, and useful content. This could lead to major revelations and public interest.
Why does Gavin think there is a 25% chance the U.S. government is sitting on knowledge of extraterrestrial life?
Gavin thinks there is a 25% chance the U.S. government has knowledge of extraterrestrial life because of the consistent reports of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) and the historical and cultural depictions of what appear to be astronauts and UFOs.
Shownotes Transcript