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cover of episode 172: Heroes or Villains? The Shrinking World of Shorting - With Carson Block, Founder of Muddy Waters

172: Heroes or Villains? The Shrinking World of Shorting - With Carson Block, Founder of Muddy Waters

2025/4/24
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Carson Block: 我是Muddy Waters的创始人兼首席执行官，我们公司主要从事两方面业务：短线行动主义（发布对问题上市公司的调查性新闻报道）和资产管理（管理多个对冲基金）。由于金融危机以来的货币刺激，投资者对风险越来越麻木，这使得寻找投资者关注的题材变得越来越难。尽管市场投机性流动性很高，使得寻找有问题的公司并做空变得更难，但这仍然是一个不错的业务。我们寻找投资目标的方法包括：部分来自其他投资者的推荐，大部分是内部生成的，主要关注那些看起来“好得令人难以置信”的事情。虽然人工智能在识别模式方面有潜力，但在识别言语中的欺骗性、过度宣传等方面，目前的技术还远远不够成熟。大型语言模型很快就能用于发布我们的想法，因为投资者的注意力持续缩短。公司利用法律漏洞进行财务操纵等行为比直接违法更普遍且更难被发现，这反映了西方社会机构的普遍问题。Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) 的例子说明了公司如何通过主观风险评估和利率上限掩盖贷款质量的恶化。CPI（一家捷克房地产开发商）的例子说明，即使公司存在严重的腐败迹象，做空交易也可能亏损。长期宽松的货币政策和标准的下降导致市场上出现了更多机会，但也使得投资者对风险更加麻木。在投资组合管理中，我们从风险与时间的关系、对冲策略以及应对市场波动等方面吸取教训并调整策略。监管机构，特别是美国证券交易委员会（SEC），对现代市场缺乏了解，其监管方法已经过时。被动型投资的增长扭曲了市场，尤其是在大型公司中，这减少了主动型投资者的作用，并导致了市场波动性。我们的公司在做空的同时也进行多头投资，但我们的投资策略并不容易被归类。做空业务变得越来越难，参与者减少，这反映了市场环境的变化。我从事做空业务的动力是追求正确而非受欢迎，以及对改善社会的责任感，尽管这种责任感随着时间的推移有所变化。我们在越南和矿业资源领域看到了长期投资机会。我对年轻人的职业建议是：学习数学和科学，并掌握多种技能。 Simon Brewer: 作为主持人，我引导了与Carson Block的对话，并就做空行业、投资策略、监管问题以及市场趋势等方面提出问题。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the changing landscape of short selling, particularly the increased difficulty in finding compelling short opportunities in a rising market with high levels of bullishness and asset inflation. The discussion includes the impact of increased monetary stimulus and retail investor participation.
  • Increased difficulty in finding compelling short opportunities due to high market bullishness and asset inflation.
  • The role of monetary stimulus and retail investor participation in shaping market dynamics.
  • The challenges of operating in a "bad news business" where the bar for finding impactful stories is constantly rising.

Shownotes Transcript

Economic theory suggests that when competition decreases, remaining firms may have more market power, which can lead to increased opportunities to expand, innovate, or capture a larger market share.

Does that analogy apply to the world of shorting? And even if you are considered one of the best in the business, can you stay afloat with a rising tide of bullishness and asset inflation?

To discuss what’s changed and where might the opportunities lie, we welcome back Carson Block, who first appeared in September 2021. He discusses sourcing ideas and the warning signs and characteristics of companies they typically like to short along with examples of companies that meet their criteria.

He discusses if AI can assist in screening for pattern recognition in potential candidates. He then reflects on the resilience needed to survive bull markets and hostile adversaries, and just as short-sellers leave the field, what may lie ahead! Recorded January 2025. 

​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders), IFM Investors), World Gold Council) and LSEG).

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