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How Trump’s Tariffs Could Boost Already High Car Prices
2025/4/9
WSJ Your Money Briefing
A
Ariana Aspuru
J
Joe Pinsker
Ariana Aspuru: 美国人买车已经很困难了，现在汽车关税又让潜在买家左右为难。许多美国人买车本来就很难，现在汽车关税让潜在买家更加不知所措。我该现在买车还是等等看？我们不知道未来会发生什么，很难预测汽车价格和关税的走向。但是，如果你知道自己需要买车，推迟购买可能会导致以后后悔。
Joe Pinsker: 汽车关税会显著提高购车成本，可能增加数千美元，二手车市场也会受到影响。主要影响是购车成本会大幅增加，我们说的是新车价格可能增加数千美元，二手车价格也可能增加。二手车市场的影响比较难以预测，因为二手车本身不受关税影响，但需求量预计会上升。此外，关税还会以更隐蔽的方式增加购车成本，例如维修和保险费用。如果汽车零部件要征收关税，那么修理汽车的费用就会更高。所有这些都会导致保险公司在汽车受损需要修理或报废需要购买新车时支付更多费用，关税也会影响这些方面。因此，即使现在没有买车的人，中期内也可能会发现他们拥有汽车的成本也会上升。
Ariana Aspuru: 汽车关税让购车者左右为难，不知道是现在买还是等等看。这些信息让购车者左右为难，尤其是在考虑买新车的人。你必须决定是现在买还是等几个月再买。
Joe Pinsker: 人们对汽车关税的影响感到不确定，这使得购车决策更加复杂。我听到的主要信息是不确定性。我同事Veronica采访的一位购车者说，在他离开后，经销商给他发短信说，关税很快就会上涨，你可能需要尽快买车。这位购车者最终没有买车，因为他觉得情况太不确定了。无论人们最终如何决定，我认为这都会使人们在购车这个重要的财务决策上更加复杂。
Joe Pinsker: 2020年代以来，新车和二手车价格上涨，供应链问题和芯片短缺是主要原因。2020年代以来，新车和二手车的价格都大幅上涨。疫情期间的供应链问题，尤其是几年前的芯片短缺导致新车数量大幅减少。与此同时，拥有汽车的成本，而不仅仅是购买汽车的成本也大幅上升。维修和保险费用都大幅上涨。这些都可以追溯到汽车本身成本的上升以及修理汽车所需的劳动力的上升。
Joe Pinsker: 根据经验法则，每月汽车贷款还款额不应超过税后收入的10%，但即使没有关税，许多美国人的汽车贷款还款额也已接近或超过这一比例。这里没有硬性规定，但一个常见的经验法则是，每月汽车贷款还款额不应超过税后收入的10%。我一直在考虑这个规则，并想知道它与典型的美国人的收入是否相符。同样，这些都是粗略的估计，但它们仍然说明了驾驶的经济承受能力现状。如果你将典型的美国二手车贷款还款额与典型的美国人收入相匹配，那么即使没有关税，你也已经达到了10%的门槛。因此，关税会让你超过这个门槛。与此同时，对于新车贷款还款额，你超过了10%。在征收关税后，你可能达到13%甚至15%。
Joe Pinsker: 人们因为汽车价格上涨而延长了汽车的使用寿命。正如我过去和其他报道中写到的那样，人们只是将汽车的使用寿命延长了。他们环顾四周，看看汽车价格的走势，然后说，你知道吗，我会尽量延长我旧车的使用寿命，看看它能用多久。
Joe Pinsker: 如果你近期需要买车，建议尽快购买，因为未来价格可能上涨；但如果还没准备好，也不要仓促决定。本周我与汽车行业的专家进行了交谈，我从他们那里听到的是，如果你知道自己近期需要买车，他们的建议是尽快购买。我们不知道未来会发生什么，很难预测汽车价格和关税的走向，但是……推迟购买你已经知道自己需要的东西可能会导致以后后悔。当然，与此同时，如果你还没有准备好买车，也不要仓促做出决定。但如果你已经下定决心，现在似乎是行动的好时机。
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Joe Pinsker: 'The main effect is that buying a car stands to get a significant amount more expensive. We're talking about thousands of dollars added to the prices of new cars and potentially used cars as well.'
Joe Pinsker: 'And then there are also sort of sneakier ways that tariffs increase the costs of not just buying a car, but just owning one in general. If car parts are subject to tariffs, that makes repairing cars more expensive...'
Ariana Aspuru: 'And this information leaves people at a crossroads, especially if they're in the market for a new car. You have to decide between buying now or trying to wait it out for a few months.'
Joe Pinsker: 'The main thing I heard was just uncertainty. One car shopper that my colleague Veronica spoke to said that he was pressured by a dealer who texted him after he left saying, hey, tariffs are going to go up soon. You might want to act on that car...'
Joe Pinsker: 'New and used cars have gotten just a lot more expensive in the 2020s. There were supply chain issues during the pandemic, and particularly a chip shortage a few years ago led to a lot fewer new cars.'
Joe Pinsker: 'Yeah, there's no hard and fast rule here, but one common rule of thumb, it's a bit rough, that gets thrown around is the idea that you shouldn't spend money more than 10% of your take-home pay on a monthly car loan payment...'
Joe Pinsker: 'Totally. And as I've written about in the past and in other stories, people are just holding onto their cars for longer...'
Joe Pinsker: 'I've been talking with some experts in the car world this week, and what I'm hearing from them is that if you know that you need to buy a car in the near future, their advice is really to buy it soon. We don't truly know what's ahead, and it's just kind of hard to plan for what might happen to car prices and tariffs in general, but... delaying on something that you already know you might need could lead to some regret later.'
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