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cover of episode Your Favorite Stock Might Be the Biggest Problem With Your Investments

Your Favorite Stock Might Be the Biggest Problem With Your Investments

2025/6/3
logo of podcast WSJ Your Money Briefing

WSJ Your Money Briefing

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Callum Borschers
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Jason Zweig
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Jason Zweig: 作为一名投资专栏作家,我观察到许多投资者都存在投资组合过度集中的问题,尤其是在经历了多年的牛市之后。虽然靠集中投资于单一公司可能迅速致富,但要长期保持财富,多元化是关键。大部分投资者并不具备像沃伦·巴菲特那样的选股能力,因此,诚实地评估自己的投资能力至关重要。我建议大家应该审视自己长期的投资表现,判断自己是否真的擅长投资,还是仅仅因为运气好。记住,在市场反弹时,将资金从表现良好的股票中撤出并进行多元化配置,往往是最佳时机。即使这涉及到资本利得税的问题,也应该考虑在退休账户中进行多元化配置,做到在领先时退出。 Callum Borschers: 作为主持人,我经常提醒大家,不要轻易爱上热门股票,因为它们可能带来短暂的刺激,但也可能让人失望。人们总是倾向于坚持那些让他们感觉良好的投资,但这种做法往往存在风险。因此,我们应该理性看待投资,避免过度集中于单一股票。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the risks of over-concentrating investments in a single stock, using examples like Nvidia and Apple. It discusses the common tendency to stick with high-performing stocks despite the risks, and the importance of diversification.
  • Over-concentration in a single stock is common
  • Diversification is crucial for long-term success
  • Self-assessment of investing skills is vital

Shownotes Transcript

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Here's your Money Briefing for Tuesday, June 3rd. I'm Callum Borschers for The Wall Street Journal. We've all been warned against falling in love with a hot stock that can thrill you today and break your heart tomorrow. But it's just so tempting. Some people call this dance with the one that brung you. You stick with the person who makes you feel good on the dance floor.

And people do the same thing with stocks. The risks of over-committing to a single investment and the rare times when it actually makes sense. That's after the break with Wall Street Journal intelligent investor columnist Jason Zweig. Stay with us. ♪

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Investors are feeling good again after tariffs rattled the stock market this spring. Some are feeling so good about certain high-performing companies that they're asking things like, is it a bad idea to have 85% of my portfolio in Nvidia? Should I own some other stocks besides Apple?

These are the sorts of questions filling the inbox of Wall Street Journal intelligent investor columnist Jason Zweig, and he joins us now to discuss. So how about it, Jason? Should these inquiring minds diversify their portfolios? They should, Cal. It's quite common for people to have over-concentrated portfolios. And of course, after many years of a bull market interrupted by just a couple of bumps along the way...

A lot of people are sitting on enormous gains. But diversifying investments isn't a universal best practice, is it? I mean, haven't Warren Buffett and other star investors made their fortunes by placing big bets instead of riding the wave of the broader market? Yeah, that's exactly correct. There's an old saying that fortunes are made by undiversifying, but they're kept diversified.

by diversifying. If you think about something like the Forbes 400 list of the richest people in America, most of them got rich by betting on a single company.

But there's enormous turnover on lists like that because the way you get rich is usually not the way you stay rich. And once you really make it big on a single stock, hanging on to it might or might not be the best idea. Is it also important to recognize that most of us are not Warren Buffett? One of the points that I made in this column is that there are two types of people who

who should concentrate their stock picks. And the first type is people like Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger, who have just extraordinary skills at picking stocks. The second type is what you might call a control person, a CEO or another extremely senior executive at a publicly traded company where

your decisions have influence over the outcome of the company's future. In either of those cases, it makes a lot of sense to concentrate your portfolio. But wow, is that a small number of people.

Sounds like a little self-awareness is important. Trouble is, people tend to overestimate their abilities, don't they? So how can we make realistic assessments of our investing know-how? You should start by looking at your investment performance over the longer term and ask yourself, am I actually as good at this as I feel I am? Or am I just on a lucky hot streak that maybe is driven by one particular stock like

It might be NVIDIA, for example. That sort of honest self-assessment is probably the single most important thing you can do as an investor to improve your long-term returns.

It's easy to understand how individual investors, especially inexperienced ones, can overload on Bitcoin or one super stock. Surely institutional investors run by the pros know better, right? No, they don't. This is not an individual investor problem. It's a human problem. Anyone who invests a lot of money in a single asset that does very well will feel the same pressure

to hang on to it. Some people call this dance with the one that brung you. You stick with the person who makes you feel good on the dance floor. And people do the same thing with stocks. We looked at some of the top private foundations in the United States, and we found that

About 10% of the foundations with at least $500 million in assets have at least 30% of their portfolio in a single stock. So that's quite common. A lot of these foundations are endowed with a grant of a single stock. And once they're endowed with it,

they tend to keep it, often almost indefinitely. And over time, what we see is on average, the foundations that diversify tend to perform better than the ones that don't. Is there a stock that was the NVIDIA of its day 10, 20 years ago that hasn't looked as good in the long run? We could talk about the Kresge Foundation that was initially endowed with stock in Kmart. And of course, Kmart once established

was the Walmart of its time and no longer exists. For quite a few years, that Kmart stock did very well for the Kresge Foundation, but in more recent decades, it shrank. And fortunately, the foundation diversified and

and that turned out to be a good decision. So how should investors view a moment like the one we're in when the market is rallying? I mean, mixing it up seems obvious when returns are down, but should people really take money out of a winning stock and spread it around? In some ways, it's the best time to do it. It can be tricky if you have embedded capital gains in the stock, but if you own it in a retirement account where you don't have to have

Quit while you're ahead, as the saying goes. Exactly.

That's WSJ Intelligent Investor columnist Jason Zweig. And that's it for Your Money Briefing. This episode was produced by Zobie Culkin with supervising producer Melanie Roy. I'm Callum Borschers for The Wall Street Journal. Thanks for listening.