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Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, "The Unequal Effects of Globalization" (MIT, 2023)

2024/12/22

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Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg: 本书探讨了全球化对不同国家和群体的不平等影响，特别关注1989年至2010年的超全球化时期。这一时期，贸易增长迅速，超过GDP增长，并伴随着全球价值链的兴起和贸易壁垒的减少。全球价值链将产品的生产分解成多个部分，在不同国家之间进行交易，这导致贸易量激增，并对贸易壁垒和发展中国家的参与产生重要影响。发展中国家，特别是东亚国家，通过参与全球价值链成功摆脱贫困，但同时也引发了对美国劳工就业的担忧。全球化对消费者和劳动者产生了不同的影响，消费者受益于更低的物价和更多样化的商品，而劳动者则受到来自低工资国家竞争的不利影响，这种影响主要体现在空间不平等上，即某些地区受到进口竞争的影响比其他地区更大。对全球化的反弹源于其影响的不平等性，这种不平等体现在国家之间和国家内部。美国与中国的贸易关系，以及全球价值链对发展中国家和美国劳工的影响，是全球化影响不平等性的一个体现。自2016年以来，对全球化的反弹日益强烈，这与英国脱欧和特朗普政府的贸易政策有关。对供应链韧性和地缘政治风险的担忧也加剧了这种反弹。然而，这些担忧并非总是合理，例如新冠疫情期间的供应链中断并非仅仅是全球价值链的问题。供应链韧性取决于冲击的性质，全球性冲击与供应链多样化无关。国家安全论点有时被滥用，以支持保护主义政策。在某些情况下，例如先进逻辑芯片的供应链，多样化是必要的。未来的贸易政策应关注去升级、多样化和解决贸易的分配效应。适度的多元化是可取的，可以通过多种政策工具实现。在半导体供应链等领域，多元化比将制造业回迁到美国更重要。解决贸易分配效应问题没有简单的办法，以往的再培训计划和调整援助计划效果不佳。基于地点的政策值得进一步研究，以应对贸易的地域性影响。解决贸易分配效应问题的关键在于国内政策调整，而不是贸易保护主义。 Peter Lorentzen: 主要负责引导访谈，提出问题，并对Goldberg教授的观点进行补充和引导。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the era of hyperglobalization and when did it occur?

The era of hyperglobalization spanned from around 1989 to 2010, characterized by rapid trade growth, the emergence of global value chains, and the dismantling of trade barriers.

What are global value chains and how do they differ from traditional trade?

Global value chains involve the fragmentation of production into components, which are traded across multiple countries, often back and forth. This differs from traditional trade, which involves the exchange of final goods between two countries.

Why did the backlash against globalization start around 2010?

The backlash began around 2010, with the financial crisis marking the end of hyperglobalization. However, the actual shift in policy and sentiment, particularly in the U.S. and Britain, became pronounced around 2016 with events like Brexit and the election of President Trump.

What are the unequal effects of globalization that led to the backlash?

The unequal effects include disparities across countries, where developing nations like China benefited at the perceived expense of the U.S. worker, and within countries, particularly in regions exposed to import competition, which saw economic decline and job losses.

Why do people in economically hard-hit regions not move to areas with more opportunities?

Mobility is hindered by factors like the cost of homeownership, psychological attachment to communities, and the lack of skills needed for new industries. These barriers prevent people from relocating to areas with better economic prospects.

What role did technology play in the era of hyperglobalization?

Technology, including the decline in trade costs due to reduced tariffs, transportation, and communication costs, as well as the use of containers, was a major driver of hyperglobalization, enabling faster and more efficient trade.

What are the arguments for and against the resilience of global value chains?

Arguments for resilience focus on the need for diversification to avoid dependency on single countries, especially in critical industries. Arguments against often misinterpret the nature of shocks, as diversification may not help against global shocks like COVID-19, and domestic production may be equally vulnerable.

What policy recommendations does the author suggest for future trade policy?

The author recommends de-escalation of protectionist measures, diversification of critical supply chains, and a focus on place-based policies to address the spatial inequality caused by globalization. She also suggests taking a more gradual approach to liberalization to allow for better adjustment.

Chapters

This chapter explores the era of hyperglobalization, its characteristics (fast trade growth, global value chains, dismantling of trade barriers), and the key factors that drove it, including technological advancements (reduced trade costs) and policy changes (multilateral agreements, WTO). It also touches upon the philosophical shift towards prioritizing economic considerations over political concerns.

Hyperglobalization (1989-2010): rapid trade growth exceeding GDP growth.
Global value chains: fragmentation of production into parts traded internationally.
Drivers: technological advancements (reduced trade costs), policy changes (multilateral agreements, WTO), and a philosophical shift towards prioritizing economic benefits over political concerns.

Shownotes Transcript

The recent retreat from globalization has been triggered by a perception that increased competition from global trade is not fair and leads to increased inequality within countries. Is this phenomenon a small hiccup in the overall wave of globalization, or are we at the beginning of a new era of deglobalization? Former Chief Economist of the World Bank Group Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg tells us that the answer depends on the policy choices we make, and in The Unequal Effects of Globalization) (MIT Press, 2023), she calls for exploring alternative policy approaches including place-based policies, while sustaining international cooperation.

At this critical moment of shifting attitudes toward globalization, The Unequal Effects of Globalization enters the debate while also taking a step back. Goldberg investigates globalization's many dimensions, disruptions, and complex interactions, from the late twentieth century's wave of trade liberalizations to the rise of China, the decline of manufacturing in advanced economies, and the recent effects of trade on global poverty, inequality, labor markets, and firm dynamics. From there, Goldberg explores the significance of the recent backlash against and potential retreat from globalization and considers the key policy implications of these trends and emerging dynamics.

As comprehensive as it is well-balanced, The Unequal Effects of Globalization is an essential read on trade and cooperation between nations that will appeal as much to academics and policymakers as it will to general readers who are interested in learning more about this timely subject.

Pinelopi (Penny) Koujianou Goldberg) is the Elihu Professor of Economics and Global Affairs and an Affiliate of the Economic Growth Center at Yale University. She holds a joint appointment at the Yale Department of Economics and the Jackson School of Global Affairs. From 2018 to 2020, she was the Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. Goldberg was President of the Econometric Society in 2021 and has previously served as Vice-President of the American Economic Association. From 2011-2017 she was Editor-in-Chief of the American Economic Review. She is member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, recipient of Guggenheim Memorial Foundation and Sloan Research Fellowships, and recipient of the Bodossaki Prize in Social Sciences. She is also a Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), research associate at the National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER), research fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) in London, UK, fellow of the CESifo research network in Germany, and member of the board of directors of the Bureau of Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD).

Interviewer Peter Lorentzen) is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco), a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center), an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations), and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions). His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. He created the unique Master’s of Science in Applied Economics) at the University of San Francisco, which teaches the conceptual frameworks and practical data analytics skills needed to succeed in the digital economy.

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