cover of episode Robert Williams on Decision Making Under Indeterminacy

Robert Williams on Decision Making Under Indeterminacy

2025/1/9
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Nigel Warburton
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Robert Williams
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Robert Williams: 本期节目讨论了在不确定性下做决策的问题。他区分了不确定性和不确定性,认为不确定性是指对未来事件的无知,但相信存在一个事实;而 不确定性则不同,它指的是在某些情况下,真假概念无法适用,例如一堆石头的例子,以及颜色渐变的例子。他认为,有些人认为不确定性只是不确定性的一种,存在一个正确的答案,只是我们不知道。而他本人则探讨了真理存在程度的可能性,认为真理并非简单的真假二元对立,而是存在不同程度的真。这需要修改逻辑系统和理性态度,以及对理性态度的描述和决策过程。 他还讨论了另一种方法,即尽可能保留经典逻辑结构,并仔细审查对事实的承诺。他认为,即使没有事实,也可以说某事物是或不是某事物。真理属性本身也可能是无法确定的。关于颜色的例子,语言约定在中间地带留下了开放空间,存在多种解释,这些解释在对中间案例的分类上存在分歧。即使存在多种解释,经典解释仍然认为某事物是或不是某事物。 最后,他总结道,对不确定性的研究仍处于早期阶段,需要构建更完整的理论来评估不同观点的优缺点。 Nigel Warburton: 在节目中,他与 Robert Williams 讨论了不确定性与不确定性的区别,并探讨了 Timothy Williamson 的观点,即不确定性实际上是不确定性,不存在没有事实的情况。他还提出了在道德问题上的应用,例如关于胎儿何时成为人的问题,以及在生命攸关的决策中,如何处理不确定性。 David Edmonds: 作为节目的主持人,他引导了讨论,并提出了关键问题,例如经典逻辑与真理存在程度的冲突,以及如何解释不确定性而不将其简化为不确定性。

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Key Insights

What is the difference between uncertainty and indeterminacy in decision-making?

Uncertainty involves not knowing a fact that exists, such as not knowing how a bank will invest money. Indeterminacy, however, refers to situations where there is no clear fact of the matter, such as borderline cases where it's unclear whether a pile of stones constitutes a heap or whether a color is yellow or red.

Why does Timothy Williamson argue that indeterminacy is just a form of uncertainty?

Timothy Williamson argues that what appears to be indeterminacy is actually ignorance of a precise fact. He believes that classical logic, which states that every meaningful proposition is either true or false, should not be abandoned. This view maintains that there is always a fact of the matter, even if we cannot determine it, preserving the simplicity and success of classical theories.

How does the concept of degrees of truth challenge classical logic?

Degrees of truth introduce the idea that propositions can be partially true, such as being 0.75 true, rather than strictly true or false. This challenges classical logic, which relies on binary truth values, and requires revising theories of truth, logic, and rational decision-making to accommodate intermediate truth values.

What are the implications of indeterminacy in moral decision-making, such as determining when a fetus becomes a person?

If indeterminacy is treated as uncertainty, there is a fact of the matter about when a fetus becomes a person, but we are ignorant of it. If indeterminacy is genuine, there may be no clear fact, making moral decisions more complex. For example, destroying a cluster of cells might be analogous to blowing up a house without knowing if someone is inside, raising ethical dilemmas.

What alternative theories exist to explain indeterminacy without reducing it to uncertainty?

One alternative is the idea of multiple classical interpretations of language, where borderline cases arise from disagreements between interpretations. Another is the concept of degrees of truth, where propositions can have intermediate truth values. Both approaches aim to preserve the idea of indeterminacy without collapsing it into mere uncertainty.

How does the concept of indeterminacy apply to linguistic conventions, such as defining colors?

Linguistic conventions settle clear cases, such as what is definitively yellow or not yellow, but leave borderline cases open. Indeterminacy arises when multiple interpretations of language disagree on how to classify these borderline cases, even though each interpretation adheres to classical logic.

Shownotes Transcript

How can we make decisions under conditions of indeterminacy? Robert Williams discusses this challenging issue with Nigel Warburton. 

This episode of the Philosophy Bites podcast has been made in association with Vagueness & Ethics), a research project funded by the European Commission (grant agreement number 101028625 — H2020-MSCA-IF-2020) and led by Miguel Dos Santos) at Uppsala University.