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2025/5/28(三)關稅戰只是 延後引爆?股債回神 全球債券難止跌?【早晨財經速解讀】
2025/5/28
游庭皓的財經皓角
游
游庭皓
游庭皓: 我认为当前美股的上涨主要是受到市场情绪回暖的推动，而非基本面的实质性改善。虽然美国消费者信心指数有所回升，美欧矛盾也出现缓和迹象，但关税战的风险依然存在，半导体关税的影响也不容忽视。从数据来看，硬数据如通膨、失业率等并没有发生太大变化，但软数据如消费者信心预期却出现了大幅波动，四月份极度悲观，五月份又突然乐观。这种情绪化的波动使得市场走势更像是一种短期反弹，而非长期趋势的改变。因此，我认为投资者不应过度乐观，仍需关注景气周期，并适度预留现金。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the current state of the US and global economy, focusing on the disconnect between hard and soft economic data. While hard data shows relatively little change, soft data, such as consumer confidence, has seen significant shifts, impacting market sentiment and stock prices.
- Disconnect between hard and soft economic data
- Consumer confidence index surged
- Stock market rise driven by sentiment, not hard data
Shownotes Transcript