EP72 对话中金公司研究部宏观分析师：特朗普2.0政策主张，如何影响宏观经济？
话中有金
Deep Dive
What are the four main policy directions of Trump 2.0?
Trump 2.0's policy directions include: 1) Re-isolationism and accelerating 'America First' through tariffs, 2) Further tax cuts, aiming to reduce corporate tax rates from 21% to 15%, 3) Deregulation in industries like finance, energy, healthcare, education, and cryptocurrencies, and 4) Encouraging fossil energy production by reversing green energy subsidies and increasing oil and gas extraction.
How might Trump 2.0's policies impact the U.S. economy?
Trump 2.0's policies are expected to boost both growth and inflation in the U.S. economy. The combination of tax cuts, deregulation, and increased fossil energy production could accelerate a new economic cycle, leading to higher nominal GDP growth and inflation. However, the extent of these effects will depend on the pace and execution of the policies.
What is the potential impact of Trump 2.0's policies on U.S. Treasury bonds?
Trump 2.0's policies are likely to steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Short-term rates may be suppressed due to potential Federal Reserve intervention, while long-term rates could rise due to increased inflation expectations and economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to stabilize between 4.0% to 4.7% in the coming years.
How could Trump 2.0's policies affect the U.S. dollar in the short and long term?
In the short term, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong due to economic growth and potential tariffs. However, in the long term, the dollar could face significant depreciation risks if the U.S. fiscal and trade deficits widen further, especially if there is a major event or intervention that triggers a new dollar bear cycle.
What are the key factors driving the current gold market, and how might it evolve under Trump 2.0?
The gold market is currently driven by high U.S. inflation and fiscal deficits, which support its role as a hedge against inflation and sovereign credit risk. Under Trump 2.0, continued fiscal expansion and potential inflation could sustain the gold bull market. Additionally, central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties are key factors supporting gold prices.
What is the outlook for China's economy in light of Trump 2.0's policies?
China's economy is expected to benefit from higher U.S. nominal GDP growth, which could boost Chinese exports. However, uncertainties in trade policies and external demand remain. Domestically, China is focusing on expanding demand, particularly in consumption and investment, to support economic growth and stabilize prices.
How does the U.S. fiscal policy under Trump 2.0 compare to historical trends?
Trump 2.0's fiscal policy is expected to continue the trend of large deficits, driven by tax cuts and increased spending. This marks a shift from the small-government policies of the 1980s and aligns more with the post-2008 financial crisis era, where fiscal expansion has been used to address economic inequality and support growth.
What is the significance of central bank gold purchases in the current gold market?
Central bank gold purchases have become a significant driver of gold prices, especially as traditional factors like ETF demand have declined. Emerging markets, in particular, have room to increase their gold reserves, which could support the ongoing gold bull market.
- 特朗普2.0政策理念包含四个方向：重回孤立主义、减税、去监管和鼓励化石能源
- 减税方案可能高达5.8万亿到7.8万亿美元
- 政策理念融合了自由主义和政府干预的元素
Shownotes Transcript
📈【本期主题】
- 特朗普2.0政策主张有哪些？
- 对全球经济有哪些影响？
- “辞旧迎新”之际
- 美债、美元、黄金走势如何？
- 对国内经济有何影响？
❤️【本期嘉宾】
张峻栋 中金公司研究部宏观分析师、执行总经理 执业编号：S0080522110001 SFC CE Ref:BRY570
🔻【主持人】
张文朗 中金公司研究部首席宏观分析师、董事总经理 执业编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BFE988
📍【时间轴】
00:03:24 特朗普2.0的政策理念四个方向
00:19:56 特朗普2.0的政策理念对美国经济有什么影响？
00:24:01 外围环境变化，对中国经济有什么影响？
00:31:02 特朗普2.0的政策影响下，美债走势如何？
00:39:04 当下环境美元如何推演？
00:43:50 国内经济，财政空间怎么看？
00:51:42 聊聊备受关注的大类资产：黄金
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