Ep. 302 Finding Outperformance And Notching Bigger Wins With Conviction In Market Leaders
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Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hello, everybody, and welcome to another episode of the Investing with IBD podcast. It's Justin Nielsen here, your host, and it is Wednesday, January 8th, 2025, our first episode of the 2025 season, I think. Yeah.

Yeah, or did we do one already? No, it was New Year's Day. So we missed you guys last week, and we're back. And we've got a great guest to kick things off with us today. Of course, we're doing this live on YouTube. And joining us is Allie Corum. She is our Multimedia Video Executive Director, and she has been with IBD now for...

10 years. You just recently celebrated your 10-year anniversary. Is that right? I did over the summer. Can't believe it. Learned a lot. So it's flown by, but at the same time, there's been a lot of learning over that time.

Well, I've got to say, I remember when you first started just coming into Bill's office. And I think I had shared with you that, oh, gosh, years ago as I was cleaning up my office, the old offices, I'm like, oh, look, it's an Allie resume that I had in my file. Oh, that's so funny. Yeah. So, of course...

I think this is one of the things where a lot of people have been excited about this. You're always on the other end of things. You're always hosting. So most of our subscribers, most of our listeners are probably very familiar with Allie because of how many great interviews she's done. And,

Let's just kind of get into your story a little bit, because you started with really kind of the journalism focus. You were at SMU. You were at the O'Neill School of Business Journalism, that kind of double major. And what got you kind of, I don't want to say more interested in trading, but...

What kind of shifted some of that focus for you? Like, hey, this isn't just journalism for me anymore. Right. Yeah, you're exactly right. When I started at IBD in 2014, it was to be a journalist. And I always loved the visual medium focused in journalism.

broadcast journalism when I was in college. That was sort of my specialty and my passion. And so I wanted to bring that to IBD when it turned out that, hey, this is a great job opportunity. And I, of course, majored in finance and journalism, as you alluded to there. So I'd seen the

quarterly reports. I've flexed my analytical muscles in my brain, but I really love the creative side as well and being a storyteller. But that's always what I've seen myself as first is a journalist and a storyteller. So when I got to IBD,

and started working on the news team. You know, I was thinking about this earlier today, you know, when I started writing for print, because at that point we still had a daily print. I remember my first front page story was on Home Depot earnings. And Justin, I don't even think we talked about the stock much at all. Maybe other than the fact that, Hey, it was up X percent after earnings, zero context at

about the stock, the chart, what really was going on. It was mainly just fundamentals and the news. And that really changed when, I think this is what sparked it for me, Justin. I really wanted to cover all of the hot companies. I wanted to cover Tesla. I wanted to cover Apple.

I wanted to cover Netflix, but those belong to all the beat reporters on the tech team. So I thought to myself, okay, how can I cover these really awesome companies without encroaching on the turf of these beat reporters that get dibs to cover these certain hot companies? And the way that I could do that with video is by talking about the

charts, the chart action. So that's what I decided to do. My first video sort of in this vibe was about Tesla. I think it was the first time that the stock breached its 10-week line after its

big initial move. Think about it. This was back in 2014. And so that sort of kicked things off from there. Hey, I can talk about Apple. I could talk about all of these fun, exciting companies and put the videos on the articles that are getting a lot of traffic on our site. And so that was

sort of how I snuck my way into doing that. And then from there, I think Chris liked the idea so much that he started having the news team and the tech team incorporate technical analysis in those news articles. Because really before, if we were talking about an earnings report or Apple new iPhone launch or whatever, it was very news focused. And again, the only mention of the stock was Apple.

Is it up or down today? What percentage? There was nothing really else included. But then we saw that IBD value add, and then it's just really grown and grown from there. So, of course, I had to develop...

know-how to talk about the stocks. And then we have a very educational focus. So it's just built on that from there, I think, over the years. And it's a lot of fun to be an active trader now. Well, and it's interesting that you came from a story-first kind of

the fundamentals, all of those things were kind of your first introduction. You found that back door to cover the stuff that you wanted. And I should also say, for people that don't know or don't remember or weren't around at that time, in 2014, when you started, we didn't really, we had very few videos out there. Oh, yeah. You really kind of said, hey, there's an opportunity here. And I think it was something that we had talked about before you got there. It was like, oh, we really should do this. But no one kind of

with it like you did. And when I say ran with it, I should mention for folks, you know, I was sitting at my desk outside of Bill O'Neill's office, the founder of Investors Business Daily. You would go to the office in the back next to his, get out the camera equipment, haul it over, you know,

and set it all up. You were a one-man show. It was like, I'm setting it up. I'm hitting the button, hitting record. I'm doing the editing. And that's what I was trained to do, right? That was what I was trained to do in college. And hey, so I found something, a skill set that I had that,

the company needed. So it was, it was really great to contribute some value in that way. Cause yeah, before it was really just PowerPoint slides with voiceovers. Those were our videos. Yeah. Thank you. Those were mine.

You've got to start somewhere. They were invaluable. I should say that one of the things I got to, again, see a lot of this happen unfold because in 2016, I moved down into the editorial area, and I sat behind Chris Gessel, our chief content officer,

And you would set up right in between Chris and I, our desks. And that's where you would do your filming a lot of times. Yeah, we do. Right? Yeah. Stand-ups in the newsroom. Right before you would go live, you know, it would be kind of, we would have a quick discussion. Like, oh, you know, anything to kind of chat about extra on the chart side, on the technical side. So with...

Kind of learning a little bit more about the charts, when did you kind of switch over to, oh, I need to be doing more of this trading on my own? I mean, certainly when you first started, you were getting your sea legs and everything like that. It was really hard, I'm sure, to fit it all in. But when did you start saying, okay, you know what? It's time for me to start implementing some of this chart analysis on my own.

So late last year, I actually looked at all my records to just sort of refresh myself and, hey, how far have I come? Because it's been quite a roller coaster ride, Justin, and I'm really excited to dig into more details because I know what everyone really wants to know is my performance. That's it.

On Ivy Live, are y'all putting your money where your mouth is? Are you just blowing smoke? So anyway, we'll see if people are impressed or not. To some people, I'm sure relatively it's not that impressive. But we'll talk more about that later. But anyway, where it really switched from me, I think, was –

during the pandemic. So it's so interesting. The first six years of my career, very focused on being a journalist, proving my worth, showing my value and having a lot of fun with it while I was at it, by the way.

But then when 2020 came along, of course, it was this crazy market for trading and everything changed. But before that, for the first six years, Justin, I looked back, I had traded probably six tickers total. Okay.

And in the first six years, and it probably wasn't, it was probably more like four years, so 2016, you know, and two of those tickers were XLK and QQQ, and I just held them. So I was not really actively trading. And then it was so funny looking back at my records at my past trades, like, what was I thinking? This is so funny. What was I doing? Yeah.

But it just didn't really make a ton of progress, obviously, with just a handful of tickers. But hey, QQQ over a four-year period from 2016 to 2020, it was fine. But...

Then in 2020, I did move across the country from the West Coast to the East Coast. So for the bulk of the year, my extra mental capacity, in addition to just, I mean, from a business perspective, we were dealing with so much. I mean, we had just started IABD Live the previous fall. Mm-hmm.

There were so many things that were changing with the landscape. Our site traffic obviously went through the roof. We were figuring out new videos that we wanted to create, new articles. There was so much going on on the content side.

So I did trade more. But to be honest, I wasn't fully in the game. So I didn't have a killer 2020 like a lot of people did. Because, again, I was focused more on the real estate market than the stock market. You did pretty okay there. I did pretty okay, bottom ticking interest rates. And yeah, so some good home equity. That's a story for another time.

Diversified. Yeah. Diversified. There you go. But then, you know, in 2021, as we've talked about many times, growth stocks peaked that February. Yeah. So...

So I didn't really have that much time, I guess you could say, in a market that was favorable for growth. I do believe that year, though, is when I started really trading the leveraged ETFs, which you got to burn your hand on the stove a couple of times, right? But luckily, I didn't do it in any size that I really got hurt. But I believe you pro that year because it was still a good year for the indexes.

So you pro, I believe about midway through the year in 2021, may or so caught a piece of that on a bounce off of the 50 day. So that was a pretty good trade in 2021. I was also, yeah, if you want to show it there for the audience and you could even pull up spy if you wanted for 2021. Yeah.

So this is the monthly right here. And so, again, you can kind of see how, you know, SPY, just to kind of refresh people's memory, you know, in 2021 growth. And let's just pull up RK. Right. ARK Innovation, because this kind of shows that. Way different look. Very different look. SPY, however, as you mentioned, that was still going. It wasn't really until...

Omicron, the variant came out a little bit after, you know, right around Thanksgiving. That's kind of when it peaked there. And look,

This was devastating, even more so for a lot of those growth names. NVIDIA was down, what, like 70% or more? I mean, it got ugly. In 2022? In 2022, right. Yeah, yeah. So I would say, yeah, in 2021, Upro and then Microsoft and NVIDIA were my best trades of the year. And then that's also when I got more...

involved with really using market timing signals. That is something that has been hugely helpful for me. I think if you can get the stars to align on stock, technicals, fundamentals, you know, the

that checking all the boxes with the market in a really strong spot versus extended or not a favorable market. I mean, if you have the wind at your back with the market, then I think that that's like the ideal scenario for me. So that has been something that's helped me because if a stock is looking great, but you're buying that stock when the market's extended, are you

Or you just shake it out. So I love having that as part of my strategy to really be dialed in with what the overall market is doing, not only for my individual stock trades, but because I really do like the leveraged ETFs. So in 2021, I was doing the U Pro and then mostly sat out pretty unscathed.

uh, in the bear market. I think I probably was a little, uh, slower to sell my Nvidia and my Microsoft than I should have been. Um, but I, I really didn't get too hurt in 2022. I sidestepped that pretty well. Um, and just being in cash, uh, even though there were a lot of oil and gas stocks that I kept seeing, you know, commodities, you know? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

So sidestepped that. And then I think when the market turned in late 2022, early 2023, that's also how I got back in was with the leveraged ETFs. So we can talk a little bit about that or whatever you want to talk about, Justin. No, no. I think that's a great segue for us to kind of get into that a little bit because...

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Check out TNB Tech Minute in the tech news briefing feed from The Wall Street Journal. That period in 2021 that you mentioned, there really was a disconnect. You know, the Upro was doing well. You know, growth was not starting in February. A lot of those high flyers that had worked so well in 2020, your Zooms, your Pelotons, you know, all of those, your Shopify's, you know,

Those were all peaking, but Upro was still doing fine. And I'll be honest, I did not do great in 2021 because I was still trying some of those growth names where I usually concentrate and I neglected. I like doing the leverage DTFs too, and I should have done more of that in 2021. So, you know, kudos to you. Here's the thing, I think.

Over the last handful of years, we have talked about so often how breadth is poor, but the indexes are looking good. It's like, okay, well, why don't I just trade the indexes?

I know how to look at technicals. Go with what's working. Go with what's working. Don't fight it. Yeah, go with the mega caps or go with the indexes. Hey, I like that. That plays to my strategy. So I have not really had a problem with this breadth issue. It does make it harder to pick stocks, but it's just something to be aware of. And there are ways around it. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. So again, kind of getting into this a little bit more on the leveraged ETFs for 2023. Again, if you looked at something like, I'm just going to look at RSP, you know, as an example, and RSP of course is the equal weighted S and P 500. So you look at, you know, 2023, you know,

And, I mean, that was flat. But you look at Spy, and it's kind of a different look. There was, especially at the end here, a nice move. And I guess this is also a way for us to segue into kind of your most recent performance, because you really hit it out of the park this last year. I wouldn't say that. I had a chance to hit it out of the park, but I still outperformed. So I'll just...

I'll tell everyone sort of what happened in my view. So with my focus on looking at the indexes, I did a pretty good job when we turned after the three waves down in November 2023, I hammered it pretty hard. I pressed the pedal pretty hard. So if you look at what...

the chart did after that on spy. And I was playing this, uh, with, um, TQQQ and QLD. Um, I, I don't know why I did both of them, but I did. And, um, Hey, cover all your bases, right? Just, it was like an experiment, right? Uh, because of the volatility, you know, it just, anyway, um, but,

But early November 2023, even though I had caught the turn the spring before and then I was sort of trading around a core in that three waves down, I hammered things pretty hard out of that. So those next couple of months were fantastic for me with the leveraged ETF exposure and with NVIDIA.

I remember in January of 2024, I was at CES. Not there this year. It's kind of nice to have a break. Not going to lie. You're with us instead. Yes. We appreciate it. But I mean, I just thought that NVIDIA was just this picture perfect breakout. So I, you know, I was adding to that pretty. I mean, look at that.

So this was January 2024. And so here's November. We had the November 1st follow-through day, just to kind of remind folks. November 1st in 2023, coming out of this double bottom for NVIDIA. So where were you buying it? Okay. So my first buy, actually, I chased it. I had FOMO on the May gap up.

That is where I, so you have it right there. You have it. So on the left side, this is January. I know. Look, go, go. No, no, no. You just, just leave it where it is. Just leave it where it is. Just go to the gap up on the left side. Left, left, left, left. All the way back here. Yeah. Oh, okay. Yeah.

So that is where, and that was on earnings. And I felt like I had, I missed the cup. I missed this whole move. And I was just like, I can't stand it anymore. I've got to get a piece of this. So I was buying on that gap up on earnings. So sometimes you can get away with buying strength. I do typically like the early entries close to the 50 day. I got away with it this time. So if you go back to that daily view, um,

Then, so then this is where my patience did pay off. It held 400. That was a level that we were looking at a lot as the team, as a team. Okay. We really wanted to hold 400. It did. I think, I don't know if that first 400,

breach and retake of the 50-day in that August if I tried. So I traded around it a little bit, yeah, and in there. But then I for sure, again, that November when it got back above the 50-day, I was buying more of it, held when it pulled back to the 50-day again in November, December.

Um, added a little bit more as it bounced from that area. And then when it broke out, I added more. I just thought that that was a beautiful breakout. It had everything round number tighter base than the previous base close at the highs. I thought that that was just like a perfect pitch. Yeah. Um,

So I bought it. So this is sounding like a lot of ads. And again, you did some subtractions there too. How large of a position were you looking at? What's kind of your comfort level in that regard? Well, NVIDIA is sort of its own. It's special. And so just one thing that I haven't shared yet about my trading style is so I've shared a little bit about how I

Ideally, I like early entries. Clearly, my initial buy here, I got away with a big extension. And I like to hold for as long as I can. I like being patient. I'm patient until I'm not. Love using sell signals on the weekly chart. You know, major violations of the 10-week line. But again, in this case...

I was even more patient than that and trading around it a little bit. And I was up on the position. And I think that's the difference. I think if you are up on something, you can be more patient with it. I'm not patient with something if I'm down 8, 10, 12. I don't do that. Well, I can wait until the 10-week moving average line. It's like, ah, no, that's –

It seems too far away when you're not up on it. Right. Yeah. So, so you gotta be up on it and then you, then you have the right to be a little bit more patient. Um, but the other part of me, my personality is, uh, and it's just a fact of life, I guess, is I, I joked to you previously that I'm a lazy millennial. I'm a busy, lazy millennial. You know, I want to do what's easy. I don't want to keep this whole separate spreadsheet with all sorts of, um,

calculations. I'm running a team. I focus on being a journalist and trading is still kind of on the side. That's not my primary gig. I'm just kind of doing it on the side. I trade on my phone

I look at thinkorswim on my desktop and market surge on my desktop, but I trade solely on my phone. And so, uh, Jess and I will be on and, and Hey, this conversation is all about being honest too, right? I just kept adding. I,

I wasn't really thinking about the size. And so I kind of got over my skis a little bit with this one. So your original question was performance, right? So there's sort of how I really got into NVIDIA and then traded around that next base a little bit in that April timeframe, but still was in it.

Uh, obviously in hindsight, I should have sold on that, uh, downside reversal off highs in volume, but I didn't because my rule was hold for a major violation of the 10 week. Also look for that second week action, uh, below the 10 week or, or back above it if you can, which is so what, what happened in that base in the April timeframe, it's been one week below the 10 week. It was pretty bad break. Um,

But it snapped right back. So I said, okay. And then by this point, Justin, I mean, if my initial buy back in May of 2023 was around, you know, the split adjusted 379 or whatnot and adds along the way up till around 500 or whatever, you know, then by that point it was getting over 1,000.

So I had a pretty large gain at that point and in some really big size on margin in a margin account. And so when it came to that test of the 10 week the next time around, which was over the summer, you know, in July, August, that pullback got a little, the dollars got a little scary for me.

And that's one of the things about thinkorswim, right? It doesn't just show it to you in percentage terms. It shows it to you in dollar terms, and it's hard to get that out of your mind sometimes. Yeah, yeah. So that's – I was like, I'm going to hold Nvidia for this huge move. I have more than a double on it, so I'm just going to be patient. And then it had three really bad weeks. And I don't think – I think maybe I sold my final piece of it that –

But I think I had – and so it hurt me. But again, it was the drawdown. Like from that peak on that reversal week to where I ended up selling it, I mean that was quite a bit off the top of my profits, right? Yeah. So 36% was at its low. Yeah. That's a healthy chunk of change. Yeah. Still –

Based on all your buys, starting here and adding in here, you were probably still...

you know, well up on your initial position, most of your ads, but it's still a hard pill to swallow. Yeah. And I, and I didn't hedge. And, and again, like it, in hindsight, it found support at the top of that prior base, but I'm no Kathy Donnelly, you know, she's, she's the Zen master. And I just, I couldn't, I couldn't. So this goes back to what I said of where I'm patient until I'm not. And,

And so as much as it hurt, you know, the stock could have peaked. And honestly, it hasn't. Yeah, it has come back, but it hasn't really crossed that July high yet. So I got shaken all the way out of it.

So that was really sad for me, but, uh, I, I tried it again when it retook the 50 day, got shaken out, then try to, I tried it a couple more times. Um, and now I have a toehold in it again and I'm trying to be patient with it, but, uh, my patience is being tested here. But anyway, so this was a huge position for me, uh,

Dollar-wise, that contributed to my 2024 performance. I would say if you're counting from the November follow-through day to July of 2024, so November 2023 to July 2024, my portfolio was up probably 140%.

So that felt fun. For those back at home, when she said like, oh, yeah, I didn't hit it out of the park. Well...

That sounds like it. Maybe it wasn't a grand slam like we just had Laotian. The roller coaster dives down, Justin. The top of the roller coaster ride for me was a 140% gain. Now I am still up more than 90% from that November follow through day. But my 2024 rate of return is

for everyone. Sorry. It does. So such a big lead up to your question here. So spy in 2024, up 23.3%, the cues up 24.8%. Uh, even with all the mistakes that I made after July, uh, my return was, uh, almost 49% in calendar, uh, 2024. And look, uh,

you know, you don't have to double every year, but if you do it every now and then long-term, it's going to really make a big difference. So again, congratulations on that Allie, but let's talk a little bit about some of the learning lessons here, you know, so you've, you've gotten, you've gotten a taste, let's say of some really great success. So what do you take from this in order to make this sustainable for yourself and to really, you know,

In your investing career, you're still on the early side. So what lessons do you take from this to say, okay, this is how I turn this into a lesson that really can pay a lot of dividends in the future? Absolutely. So I would say 2023 and 2024 were my first two years where I very seriously traded. So, you know, I guess you could say back to 2020, but really, honestly, I

trading actively. I would say I really didn't do that until 2023 and 2024. So now I have two years under my belt, but I do also have that bear market experience, right? I sat that out, but it was a market. I was analyzing the market and looking at stocks. So, okay, I have those kind of conditions under my belt. I have a turnaround type market under my belt.

I have a strong market now under my belt. Uh, and I think that it's okay to still be trying to find your style. Uh, but post analysis, I like doing it more again, lazy millennial. I like doing it more in real time after every trade. Right. So where, where was my entry? Where, where did I get shaken out? Uh, so I've, I think I've done a good job at, uh,

handling the minimizing losses side of my game and even the stock picking and the market timing side of my game, but it's really the drawdowns, right? So my style does favor more longer holding times,

But okay, well, should I be taking more partial profits into strength? Should I be selling a little bit a little earlier and just waiting for that final piece? And hey, if it does come back above the 10-week, then get back in. Mm-hmm.

So I am still learning to refine my style a little bit more, I would say. You know, hedging is not something that I do. I was telling you before the show that previously, this was probably in 2021, I was playing around a little bit with SQQQ and I

I just couldn't, I couldn't get the timing right. So I think using something like that as a hedge in 2023 and 2024 was just not appealing to me because I hadn't been successful at it previously. I just wanted to get really good at a narrow skillset and, and try to get really good at that. And so I think for my style, just really refining those buy hold and sell rules again in the heat of battle, um,

Yeah.

So I've been able to hold it. So I think that in terms of learning lessons, the loss cutting side, that's huge. And now I think it's more about managing the positions.

the sizing, you know, my, my initial size, I did a really great job or maybe got a little too over my skis with NVIDIA. But some of the other big winners that I've had, you know, like ANF Palantir that I'm in right now, I've gotten doubles in them, or at least at one point I had had doubles in those, but could I have more, have had more size? Yeah.

Maybe the initial buy, maybe it was okay to go with the size that I went with, but were there chances along the way where I could have added and scaled up? So I am still working on the size part in addition to the drawdowns side, Justin. That's tough for me. Yeah.

Well, and look, that's the hardest part of the game, right? Once you get the buying down, once you get kind of your ultimate sell rules down, it's all that in between. And one more thing I just wanted to hit on real quick, because this is something that we were talking about on IBD Live this morning, and I thought it was so important that you – well, I shouldn't say we. You were talking about it.

This was all you, Allie. You were talking about how you really try to change your mindset to reframe some of these pullbacks to think of them, especially with a stock that maybe you don't own. It's a little bit easier.

When it's pulling back to think of that as an opportunity instead of, oh, things are falling apart and I need to get fearful. Right. And I think you have to be careful with that because I think sometimes your mind can play tricks on you and make you think –

sell positively when you shouldn't, you shouldn't be, you should be selling. Right. Uh, so I, I think there is a little bit of a difference there. Uh, and I think ANF was a great example for me. I did get a double in that stock. You were showing the chart there. Um, and then when it broke the 10 week, I, I did sell all of it. The,

Uh, first one. Yeah. I, I sold all of it, but look what it did two weeks later. I, but I did get back in. You did buy it back. I remember that. I bought it back and then I sold it again when it broke the 10 week. So ended up, I mean, my rules ended up working. Um, but I think there are some scenarios where, uh, it doesn't violate the 10 week. Okay. Let's, let's talk about my biggest mistake of 2024 app. Okay. I had, I had that sucker. Yeah.

And I let it get away from me. Did you get out here? Because this is where I got out. Yep.

I got out that week right before it took off. But in my defense that week, I was buying TQQQ. But it was no app loving. And this is another case of where you were busy. You were in New York in all these meetings. September 11th was the day of this breakout. And again, I remember you telling the story, you and Chris talking.

you know, Hey, maybe we should, maybe we should buy some of those TQQQ just in case, but you were busy. Yeah. Well, but that's kind of an excuse because on IBD live, you know, some people said, and rightfully so, Hey, like this is looking great. It's showing relative strength, but the market is still kind of on, uh, uneven footing. You know, that was early to mid September. We were still trying to get out of that chop. Right. Uh, but it didn't end up being a big momentum shift by the end of the day. But, uh,

it started looking extended. And we, you know, with a choppy market, you want to try to avoid buying stuff that's a little too extended. But I did say on IBD Live, I said, I'm very, very tempted here. And I did nothing about it. But anyway, I had bought the strength previously and it's really condensed now. So maybe go back a couple months if you can. So you could go to October. Yeah, right. Maybe. Yeah.

Just really quickly, I know we're getting close to wanting to wrap up here. So I bought that. We were all buying it the same day, if you want to point out where we were buying. Like it tightened up and then it broke out a little bit above 91. Oh, yeah. No, before where we were buying it. Oh, right. Before we got shaken out. So there was this.

Was it there? That's where I should, if I bought it there, I would still be in it. Yeah. That's my lesson. We were buying it a couple days later than that. It was coming out of that tight area. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, so I did buy it off of this. But you did buy it off of there. All right. I still got shaken out. So I bought it a little too late into that strength. And then I got shaken out due to the percentage decline from my entry. But what did it do, Justin? It held the 50. It held the 10-week, which is what I love. And I should have listened to my own rule on that. But buying right...

helps you hold right. So if I would have bought that 50-day retake, which I really love, instead of buying extended, I for sure would have sat through that test. And I'm going to defend you here, Allie, because you did follow your rule. You hold at the 50-day moving average line when you're up.

It's a different situation when you're not up on the position. And that's the difference between buying here and buying there. So after that especially, I'm really trying to burn into my brain those 50-day retakes in strong stocks. I mean if you look at the weekly on this one, the spikes of volume – I know volume is controversial now. And the triple-digit growth. You look at the fundamental – so –

Outperformance, major triple-digit growth, lots of accumulation. I should have been in this one, and I missed it. But talk about lessons. This one definitely had a lot of lessons for me this year. Buying right, holding, selling, getting back in, all of the above. And look, I think it's great that –

there's so many of us that focus on that learning. You know, you have to always learn. And, and I think we, you know, we both learned this from Bill O'Neill here. He was in his eighties, you know, he'd been at it for 50 years and he was still, Oh, this is what I'm, this is what I learned from this one. This is what I learned from this one. And, um, you know, at, it takes a while. I think that's another thing that not everyone understands is, um, you know, you, you,

you're kind of dependent a little bit on the market that you're given, you know, where you're at in your life at the point, you know, when you, when you start. And I,

I think sometimes it's a matter of when you get that good year, that really motivates you to learn a lot and take more from it. So I really appreciate you sharing all of those lessons. But I want to also kind of pick your brain a little bit because, again, I think a lot of people just don't realize how good you've gotten at this. You know, you're certainly at the beginning of your career.

Well, certainly at the beginning of your career, as most people are, you've got a lot of learning to do. And look, we aren't paid to trade. We're paid to do a job. And so that's what we're doing here. But this is kind of something we do on the side. So maybe talk a little bit about the current market and what kind of –

learning lessons from this past year or so that you're using to kind of approach the current market. I'm just going to start with the NASDAQ because it's been a little bit tricky here lately. I mean, after we got this Fed reaction, we were up at 20,000. How are you kind of handling this? I mean, it's a...

It's a pullback to the 50 day. Yeah. Well, when you're in leveraged ETFs, a three to four percent single day decline. Let me tell you, that is not fun. So I got out. It was it was a bad character change. But where where did I get in on TQQQ? September 11th. That was a character change in a bullish way. If you want to point that that big bar out on September 11th.

So that's where I was getting in. So still a good trade, right? That's where I got in. And then the bad break is where I got out. So I really try to look for those character changes. I think those are...

At least in the second half of the year, the two most important days in the market, because look at what has followed. So after you had that character change to the upside, what happened since? And then, of course, the day after the election, another really positive signal. That's when I was going into Tesla and Bitcoin markets.

and adding more exposure right after the election. So I like looking for character changes in the market, so for bullish and bearish. And when we got that December 18th bad break, yeah, I had to scale back out of a lot of stuff, especially the leveraged ETFs. And we're hanging in there, but definitely we're not in that –

trending market that you can clearly see on the charts when we had that action that's primarily contained above a rising 21-day line. That's definitely the sweet spot for me. I know Joe Fahmy also tweeted about that earlier today, so great minds think alike there. So,

You know, I am long-term bullish here. I think that if you have the backdrop of innovation and AI that we have that's so far-reaching and in such early stages, I think that's huge. I think also corporate tax cuts, if we can have that, that is big because...

It's a pretty simple equation, Justin. If you're just looking at the investor perspective alone, not the political side of things, what do investors want? They want earnings to grow. If you have lower taxes, you're going to have higher earnings. So I think that's also a pretty big tailwind. But

There's no doubt that we are going to have twists and turns along the way. Clearly, if the last couple of weeks are any indication, it's not going to be made easy for us. But again, I think...

Staying level-headed, looking at pullbacks in the context of an overall uptrend that we've had since 2023. Think about those as potential buying opportunities. And I think that if this uptrend ultimately continues, those are going to be the times where we're going to want to start adding exposure and not get caught flat-footed and waiting until things are extended to get back in. Yeah. Yeah.

Great, great point, Ali. So let's talk about maybe just a couple. Again, I really wanted people to kind of hear a little bit more of your story this time.

The truth is, if anyone wants to know your ideas on stocks and the market, you know, just tune into IBD Live. That's www.investors.com slash IBD Live. You're on there hosting a lot of times, but you pipe in with your thoughts as well. I'm trying to add more. Sometimes I just, you know, I let the panelists speak, but trying to weigh in more.

Yeah. And then there's also, of course, the SMT video that you're hosting on most days, unless you're off gallivanting somewhere. Which I will be this week, actually. Yeah. So I'll be taking over Ali's spot there. But maybe share a couple stocks that are on your radar and maybe why.

Okay. So I like ServiceNow, ticker N-O-W, and Netflix here. So we can start with ServiceNow. So I think that this is a setup that I'm watching for a number of reasons that play to my style. One, I like big, liquid leaders. And I do, of course, if you can't tell with the TQQQ, I do skew towards technology. I tried the oil and gas stuff.

in 2022 couldn't get it right. So I'm trying to just play to my strengths. I have to be careful though with not getting too overexposed to technology. I do have some consumer type exposure as well in the portfolio, like DoorDash, for example, is a current holding of mine, which is also...

Right around the day there. But anyway, ServiceNow, big liquid leader. Love the steady fundamentals. If you look at a weekly or a monthly chart of this one, it's just fantastic. Relative strength looks spectacular.

stellar here. We do have earnings coming up in two weeks, but here's why I like it. It's because it's pulling back. It's right at the 50 day and 10 week line. So if we want to reframe our mindset to, okay, if we get a bounce here, that would be a buy signal for me versus waiting for a base, waiting for a breakout to almost 1200 and

that's going to feel a little too late for me. So I'm looking for a bounce here. And I love how the team has been talking so much over the last couple of years about using levels to manage your risk for your exit. So using the lows of the last two weeks, using that 50 day or 10 week line just to get you started and to have that clear level of risk where you're getting out. I think this is a good one to watch. Yeah.

So, you know, there's certainly a mix here that you've just talked about. You have talked a lot about the chart, but you talked a lot about these phenomenal fundamentals, the growth rate, the stability, the, you know, everything, you know, this stock has it. So what is your mix now? You started in so heavy on the fundamentals.

Now that you've gotten a lot more chart analysis under your belt, where do you kind of fall in terms of how you find your stocks? Is it more chart based or are you still reading a lot of stories and kicking the tires on those fundamentals? Yeah.

I feel like it's 50-50. I think... I really do because I am not a fast trader. I try to get in early when I can. I do sometimes chase the strength, but I try to get in early. So sort of...

swing trade esque entries, but with a holding period or ideal holding period of a position trader. So because of that, I want conviction in something. I can't have conviction in something technicals alone. I have to have the story. I have to know the fundamentals. Otherwise I am going to get spooked in a, in an ordinary pullback. So I want all of those elements. So they're both very important to me. Yeah. Yeah.

We've got time for one more stock. Where do you want to go? Quickly, Netflix. So ServiceNow, sort of that AI side. Netflix, consumer, but also technology. And look at this orderly pullback right to the 50-day. Great gap up on the last earnings report. Another company with a stellar story here. They're moving more into live content and into gaming. So I think that it's a really interesting story here, and I love the setup to boot.

Yeah, I do have a position in Netflix myself. And just as you said, look, my son, he asks every week if I mentioned him during the podcast. So I'm mentioning Nicholas today. But look, they just started. WWE, right? WWE Raw. I knew you were going to say that because he loves wrestling. Yes, he loves wrestling. He was really it was at the Intuit Dome and he

is a little bitter that he was not, uh, that we didn't take him. In fact, he was telling his sister last night about it. And he said, yeah, Laura didn't, you know, decided not to take me. And I'm like, you mean your mom? Like he said it like that. He said, Laura, my daughter's like, whoa. So she wasn't home yet. So I guess that's why he thought he could get away with it. But yeah, it certainly has that fundamental side. And as you mentioned, I mean, look,

The numbers are there on the weekly chart. Let's just go there. 29%, a little bit less stable, but you look at that earnings line and definitely...

And there's something new there. So very interesting. But I want to see the bounce. Yes. I want to see the bounce. I'm with you. I've actually been holding this for a while. I did finally, we moved my wife's account. So I did have, I have to go to the monthly to show where my wife bought it.

was here and that is not where I buy on weakness like that I refused but I bought her one share and so I still she nailed it yeah I still have some of this you know myself I'm looking at this you know pull back to the 10 week moving average line so but Allie any parting thoughts one thing I wanted to kind of get from the the YouTube it was a great question

Anything that you would, any person or any book that you would say, hey, this is what I really learned the most from? IBD Live. I'm telling you, when I started getting involved in IBD Live and hearing real trades from real traders, that was huge for me. And I just, I've soaked it up like a sponge. And sometimes I feel like I'm Dorothy or something like, oh, your heart and your brain and your, like, I'm learning a little, oh, your.

hold rule or you love the sponsorship or how you look at the ATR. I've learned a little bit of something from everyone on our team and all of our external guests. And I find, okay, what kind of inspiration can I take from that? Does that jive with my style? And so I feel like

my style is sort of the result of a little bit of everything from everyone. So I'm not, I'm not an original person, but I've just learned a lot from everyone. But the difference is you have to make it your own or you're not going to believe in it. If you just follow someone into a trade, you're going to mess it up. So you learn from others, but make it your own and believe in why you like it.

Oh, such a great note to end on, Allie. Thank you so much. Why haven't we done this earlier? I think that's going to be the biggest question that comes from this. No.

I hope everyone liked it. Well, I did. So I really appreciate it, and I'm sure our audience will as well because I think that there's a lot of inspiration to take from this and a lot of learning lessons of how, you know, look, a double is a double. You know, no matter how you look at it, that's a great performance, so congratulations on that. The journey continues. Exactly. I was going to say, I don't think this is going to be your last double. So that's my prediction. Okay.

Yes. Awesome. Well, that's going to wrap up the show for us this week. Thank you so much for joining us. It was a pleasure having Allie on and look, we've got more for you this year. Really looking forward to a great year with all of you and 2025. We've, we've got the live show going now and next week we're,

We've got a brand new guest coming on. This was someone that actually was recommended to me by David Keller, who's been on the show a few times. This is David Cox. He's a senior portfolio manager at Raymond James. David Cox has been on David Keller's show a few times, and he said, you know, this might be good for your podcast as well. So going to be great to welcome David Cox onto the show next week. We really hope you join us for that. Don't forget to like and subscribe, and thank you so much for watching. We'll see you next week.