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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Investing with IBD podcast. It's Justin Nielsen here, and it is February 26, 2025. We are glad to have you with us. We're, of course, as we do every week on Wednesdays, live at 5 Eastern. We're going to be talking about the
Coming to you on YouTube, and then also you can get access to our podcast after the fact on whatever podcast channel you enjoy, whether it's Apple, Spotify, what have you. But thanks for joining us. And I'm also pleased to announce that we've got Viva Jha that is joining us today as a first-time guest. She's been on IBD Live and someone that we've talked to a number of times on the IBD Live show. So I'm really happy to have you on our show, the podcast.
It's my pleasure to be here, Justin. I love you guys. I watch you all the time and it's an honor to be here.
So for those of you that don't know, Viva, she seems to be one of those consistent members of the leaderboard on the U.S. Investing Championship. And so I feel like it's been a number of years. You seem to always be in the top 10, top 5, top 2. You're always up there. So to just start out, I want to kind of pick your brain a little bit on how do you find yourself getting such consistent results?
So I stick with my strategy and I think that's, you know, something that's important for people to realize the best strategy is one that you can actually execute. So there's so many people, if you listen to the people that have won, they have,
various strategies. I stick to my strategy and my strategy is a combination of TQQQ as well as picking the type of growth stocks that show up in IBD 50 sector leaders, IPO leaders. And that's what I stick to. So yes, I have not ever been number one, but if you kind of do the math when it comes to the compounding, I've done really well. I'm not saying that to brag. I'm saying that
I don't have to work like I'm able to let my investing support my life. And that's that's my goal, you know. And so that that that's how I've done that. Yeah. And I mean, every time I've talked to you, it seems like you're you know, you're doing a lot of fun things. You're doing trips. You're getting ready for trips. You're supporting your family. You're doing all of these things to, again, not be glued to the screen.
Um, so maybe walk through a little bit of your routine, you know, how long does it take you to, to, to do this? And, and, and again, the results, as you said, they're not number one, but they don't need to be number one. They don't need to be 400% each year to do pretty gosh darn well.
Yeah. So again, in fairness, the years where I had triple digit returns, which were 2020 and 2021, I was sitting in front of the screen again, COVID made it easier because there was nowhere to go. In 2020, there was nowhere to go. 2021, I entered the competition that Mark Minervini was in. And I shared this with you. I am, you know, I have confidence in myself, but I'm also not delusional. I didn't enter the
in the competition that Mark was in thinking I would beat him, I entered thinking I want to push myself and learn how to be a better trader because I've always been, you know, in my mind that sometimes there's a difference between investing and trading. Investing to me feels a little bit longer term.
trading, you know, if you're actively trading, you have to be more aware of like the day-to-day nuances, which I never was, you know, the only charts I looked at were weekly charts because, you know, like I love Bill O'Neill and I listened to, you know, watch whatever he, he taught. And, but so I, um, you know, I had to push myself to be more focused on, on the daily, you know? Um, and so, um,
I'm sorry, I misled. Tell me again what your question was. Well, no, no. I mean, you basically answered it because, again, for your best results, you seem to have gone to a more...
very active approach sitting at your computer, but you also get very good results sometimes doing that. So now my routine, so, you know, before when I was doing that very active routine, I was watching the market every day. I was doing my weekly routine of where I would get the weekly paper. I'm still a person who looks good.
At the paper, I would identify what stocks have earnings and sales of more than 25%, like what has an accumulation distribution rating of A, really looking at all of the stuff that was in CanSlim. But now my routine, it's almost a little bit embarrassing to say, but I mainly follow TQQQ.
And when I have extra cash to put in, then I will put it into other things. But literally right now, like at the end of the day, I watch where did the market close? Are we under distribution? What are the highs and the lows? Is there a trading range right now? And we'll talk about this after. TQQQ has been in a trading range of $73 to $93. As long as it stays in that range, it's not doing anything that is changing character.
So I can literally, I can look at my watch and see where is the stock and then I don't have to do anything else. So right now my routine is I spend a couple of minutes at the end of the day. In general, when I'm trying to put money, and also I think I had mentioned to you guys before I'm retired, I don't have money coming in the market.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah. So before we get into your TQQQ strategy, and for those that don't know, we keep on using the term. It is a triple leveraged version of QQQ, which is the NASDAQ 100. So the benefit is you are getting access to the 100 NASDAQ companies, non-financial, top companies, names that we all recognize. You know what I mean?
Heck, you can see the commercials all the time. But, you know, you get access to that. But instead of as a single, you know, a single movement, you're getting a triple movement. And it's worth remembering that that's on a daily basis. We just talked with Will Ryan from Granite Shares talking about how, you know, these instruments are really about daily, not necessarily long term. But a lot of times you do turn your TQQQ into a little bit of a longer term trade for yourself.
As long as it's acting right. I do. And, you know, for me, and I have shared this on IBD Live, you know, TQPQ was not intended to be long-term, right? It was more that, okay, like when there is a follow-through day, we have talked about this too. Now you guys have changed the definition. Not that you've changed the definition. I have to learn how...
your new, the new way that you guys kind of, you know, characterize this. But in the past, it was very easy to just see, okay, you know, the market was in a correction. Now there's a follow through day. I don't necessarily know what stocks I want to buy, especially if I'm trying to buy something in a larger size. So let me get into TQQQ as my holding place.
and then I sell down, you know, and, and, and I think, you know, that's why for me, I have very, we've talked about this before. I have just very few entry points and a lot of sell points because most of the time I'm selling it because I'm trying to go into something else. Yeah. Um, so, uh,
Let's get into that a little bit because we should talk about your strategies here because, again, you are very consistent in your application of your strategies. It's one of those things where I think you're a little bit more comfortable going heavy in that.
because you are disciplined and you know your levels. So maybe you can walk me through. You often say that your entries are a little bit easier, which I find that to be the case so many times. The entries are easier. It's the cell signals that are a little bit more nebulous. It's not just one. Sometimes it's multiple things and you have to kind of add them all together. So let's start with your buys.
What is it that you look for when you're going to enter a TQQQ position? Yeah, there's really only two spots. Although, as you said, now maybe because I have to figure out what a true follow-through day is, I have to adjust my criteria a little bit. But it's typically after the market has gone into an intermediate correction.
So in my mind for, you know, whether it's the NASDAQ or S&P, maybe like an 8% correction, 5% to 8% correction, like something that tends to happen pretty frequently, then I'm starting to look for a bottom. I do not buy on the bottom day. You know, a lot of people, they ask me, oh, if you go and you look at the chart, like you could have bought on this day. And I'm like, yeah, but...
When it is the bottom day, you don't know it's the bottom day until many days after. And if you pull up, if you 73, 34, 39 was the most recent bottom, if you set your market surge to that date and look at it, it doesn't look like that's the bottom. It looks like it's going to keep going lower. So you really don't know until it's a few days after. So I wait for three to four days of either higher highs and higher lows or – yeah, I'm going to –
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Okay, I'm going to put on my glasses. I was just putting this up so that you could... So people that are watching this, a lot of people do listen to it, but here's that 7334. Yeah, so Justin, if you change... So it's 226. Change it to... I think it was January 13th, 15th, something like that in January. I want to go to what the 7334 day was. Okay, yes. Okay, so...
Again, for anyone that's a technical trader, if you look at this, like, is your first spot going to be, oh, today is a bottom. For me, I was like, okay, it's going to go down to the 200-day moving average. Like, look to the left of the chart. To me, charts are like people. They have personalities, right? And some personalities can change. But if I'm looking at this chart, I expected it to go down to the 200-day moving average. It did not. Okay.
But I didn't know that on this day. So when I go in my entry point, I'm thinking I don't want to risk more than 10% of my capital and I need a place to get out. So if you look at that day, the 200-day moving average, I believe it was more than...
Again, first of all, it was the first day of it showing some support, so I wouldn't normally get in at that. So yes, it was 8% above the 200-day moving average. But I was thinking, if you look to the left of the chart, any time it undercut the 50-day, it generally went down to the 200-day. So in my mind, my hypothesis is it's going to go down to the 200-day. And yeah, if you...
You know, push forward a few days. It didn't do that, but I didn't know that at the time. And so, yeah, so look at maybe the third day. So generally when I look for the third to fourth day of, you know, you can do the fourth day. That's fine too, because so on, right. Okay. So basically,
That third day, it had an up day, but it was a gap up. And so, again, I was a little bit slow here. And I know, you know, I love listening to Mike Webster. He said that the, you know, the follow through day that we didn't really need happen, like even the day after this red bread thing that you have.
But at the time, I didn't know that. So I'm thinking to myself, okay, all the other times in recent days, it has come down to the 200-day moving average. It didn't do that. Do I know that this is a follow-through day? I didn't know that. And then when you go to that fifth day, if you can click on that fifth bar and look at how far extended is it from the 200-day. 17.6%. 17.6%.
I was not willing to enter at that point because I would be, I would have to be mentally prepared for it to go down 17.6%. Now people can look at it and say, well, why wouldn't you set it at the 50 day moving average, which is a very reasonable place that I typically set. But when I look to the left of the chart, when it's,
you know, when it's like kind of circling around this 50 days, sometimes it goes down to the 200 day. So I was not willing to risk my capital. And there were other people, some people have rejudged me. They were like, Oh, they bought on the, the, and, and, and great. But again,
But if you had bought on that follow-through day, my sell rule, which again, I have a lot of sell signals. And my brother was telling me, he said, you know, he said, there's a lot of things you don't say that you actually do because I think it's so ingrained in me that I don't even think to mention it. Like my line in the sand is if it undercuts day one of a rally, then
That is a sell rule that there's no thinking of what percent I'm out. So day one of this rally was that 73, 34. It's so far above it that I, and as you can see, if you look on the daily chart to the left, TQQQ has lots of gaps up and gaps down. I could not find a place where I felt like
The stock is going to do what it's going to do. Am I willing to go down to 73.34 on that follow-through day? I'm not. So I did not get in. So let's fast forward a few more days. Yeah, you can fast forward.
You know, it really, you know, started again, gapping up really strongly. And then on Friday, we started getting deep seek news coming out and a big hit on January 27th. So again, this kind of is back in that little chop fest that we were dealing with and are still dealing with to a degree. So talk a little bit about this. Now it's closer to that 73-34, but...
in a really weird position because you're gapping down below the 50 day moving average line. Yes. And you guys are going to think I'm crazy. This is against every rule, probably that Bill O'Neill or Mark Minervini or all the market experts would have said, this is the day I got in. Okay. And, uh,
Again, I would not do this with an individual stock. So the rules I follow for TQQQ are very different from in general what I do with my individual holdings. But OK, so this is my thought process. OK, so we're on January 27. So I'm looking at this and I'm saying, OK, my hypothesis was that it was going to pull down to the 200 day moving average.
Based on, you know, that 73 34 day, it did not do that. Right. And and so and that that day where we had the follow through day at that point, I was it was too far extended from the 200 day moving average. I could not see a point of where can I get in and have like a reasonable place to get out.
So by this point, by January 27th, there were enough trading days that happened that to me I felt like I can set a stop loss at $73.34 because if you look at a weekly chart. Here we go.
It's trading in a range, right? And it's trading in a range. And so if it undercuts that range, then it's still trying to find a bottom. Then it's probably going to go to the 200-day. If it does not undercut that range, then it's basing and it should hopefully be going up from there. So I got in that day because even though it was a gap down, it closed in the upper half of the range. The volume was high, right?
Right. So even if it's a pink day, if it closes in the upper half of the range and the volume is high to me, it's a sign of support. It's not going lower. And if it did go lower, if I was wrong, I got in at 78. If I was wrong and it went down below 73, 34, I'm not risking more than 10 percent of my cap. So, yes, sometimes, you know, like it.
in some of these strategies, it has to be counterintuitive. You know, it's like, okay, maybe, you know, the sharks are circling and you, you kind of feel that even with what's happened, like since, since Friday, you and I, we were, we were talking about this, right. That it's like, most of the time I come on your show and I'm like, I'm defensive, I'm defensive, you know, like I think the market is extended and, you know, Friday was an ugly day. A lot of things came off my chart, but I'm actually optimistic here. You know, maybe I'm crazy, but I, I,
I feel like, again, you have to look at the ranges. There's no stock that's going to go up, you
You know, like all the time. If it does, it's going to come down at some point, you know, but like you have to understand the market is going to go up and down. And and so you just have to be prepared for when it comes down. And I was prepared. You know, today was a really important day because it had multiple down days. Right. But it held 73 34 down.
That's my line in the sand. And now the 200-day moving average is moving up. So if it undercuts the 200-day moving average and 7334, I'm going to be completely out. If it doesn't do that, then I'm going to, you know, yes, it's not fun. You know, I...
on days when the market is down, like it was on Friday, I don't, I don't look at where my portfolio is. Cause I know it's going to be down. I'm looking at the chart and saying, did it do something wrong? No, it does come down. You know, it's, it's, it's watching how it responds to where it is. And then you make a decision, but you need to know that in, in advance because, because otherwise you're going to see a bad down day and you're going to be like, you know, you're, you're, you're just going to get out. And again, even that bad down date was down 6% on December 11th.
it was down 10%. So yes, it was a bad day, but it was not as bad as how it was in December, which is where I got out on December 16th. So that's also another thing that when I'm, you know, again, like, you know, when we were talking about the competition and the competition, it's calendar year or whatever, but I'm looking at my real money. So yes, if I got out at 93 and now I'm attempting to get back in at, you know, 78, if I'm wrong, I'll get out, but I'm still in a better place.
that I was, I just loved it. So let's, let's talk about that a little bit. Um, because it's, it's really interesting. Um, you know, you, you have mentioned a number of times, uh, kind of really trying to find your spot. Uh, it's too extended here. Um, it's, it's the bottom here. You're really looking for that kind of Goldilocks scenario. And, and I really appreciate that you spend so much time really kind of nailing, uh, your spot, uh,
buying right so that you have your exit strategy in place. But let's talk a little bit about the selling side because, of course, you've been talking about your defensive part, where you're going to protect yourself, where you're going to protect your capital. But for a lot of folks looking at this on December 16th, they'd be like, why on earth are you selling? This looks great. Okay. So...
So there are the technical signs and there's also like the, you know, my personality and psychology. So let's go to the technical signs first. So I got in on September 11th. Okay. So go to September 11th.
Okay, right. So three strong days. And again, we were talking about recently about the 200 day moving average. This is where it was a strong day, three days up, no gap up, and it was above the 200 day moving average. So I got in somewhere in the middle of the range of that day once it overtook the like, I felt confident once it overtook the 200 day moving average.
But even if you look at the peak, right? So now if you go to December 16th, look how much it's gained, right? In a very short period of time. And I shared this with you guys on IBD Live that the reason I do investing is to take care of my family and to have financial freedom. And in order to do those things, you have to sell, right?
you know, like on paper, things look great, but if you don't actually have the cash, I don't work. I need to take money out. And usually I do that at the end of the year. So on December 16th, usually I'll like look in December between mid December to end of December. I'm trying to get, you know, raise cash. I'm trying to figure out what I need for the next couple of years so that I don't have to trade under stress. So,
So when I looked at this, and also I have two December birthdays in my immediate family. So I'm thinking to myself, okay, you know, it's December 16th. My family's coming, like, you know, my daughter's birthday. We're going to New York, whatever. I'm like, I don't want to spend the next two weeks looking at charts. So...
I'm happy with the gain I've gotten. And from a technical perspective, so those are the psychological things. From a technical perspective, it was more than 10% extended above the 21 EMA, which is something that I do look at. And the bulls versus bears, which are typically a secondary indicator, had been above 60% for a few weeks. I think when I was on your show on December 6th, I was saying I'm starting to get a little bit anxious about this.
So in my mind, the question I always ask myself is, what is the probability that it's going to go up 10% from here? Or what is the probability it's going to go down 10% from here? And again, like Bill's thing was you need a three to one profit to loss ratio. Mark Minervini talks about at least two to one. But in this case, I was already at a profit, right? So I'm not thinking about that profit and loss. I'm just thinking about what is the probability? And I said to myself, you know what?
where it is right now. I'm very happy with the gain I've gotten. Yes, maybe I'm going to miss a little bit on the way up, but I'm getting out. I got out at, it was 93.17, I think. And then you can fast forward a couple of days. Yeah.
So again, there's a little bit of luck involved, but it's also recognizing that because of the volatility, when you look at something like TQQQ, when you have a good gain, take something off the table. Yes, you're going to leave stuff. I never get in at the bottom and I never get out at the top. I think that 93 was probably the closest I've
ever gotten to getting out of that. Most of the time I get out well before, you know, but it's, you know, when you think about compounding, right, there's like the rule of 72. I'm sure a lot of your viewers are familiar with that. It's, you know, if you look at whatever your gain is and you take 72 divided by that, that will tell you how long it takes to double your money, right? And so I always kind of look at it from the perspective of I need to lock in some gains and, you know, I
I don't remember who said this. It was somebody super famous, but I don't remember off the top of my head. But they were like, either you if you don't get out early, you're going to get out too late. Right. Yeah. So so so you need a strategy for when to get out. And for me, part of it is when I've done really well, I'm locking in gains. And yes, I leave money on the table for sure.
Well, and one of the things in talking to you, Viva, that really strikes me is that you do not trade from a position of fear. And for someone who has to live off of your trading, you know, that's...
There's something to be said for that. And again, I think you have a lot of rules in place to make sure that you don't trade from a place of fear. And that includes fear of missing out, which is really hard for a lot of people because one of the things we were talking about is you can see a lot of stocks come back.
and you're like, oh, I missed it, it gapped up, or I just wasn't paying attention. And you seem very disciplined, again, on not chasing things and recognizing, hey, I've got to take my shot when everything is kind of in place as opposed to, oh, you know, I missed it. I don't want to be left behind. Let me chase this thing. No. To me...
I mean, this seems so obvious, but I think for a lot of people, they don't think this way. Cash is a position. And if I'm in cash, that doesn't bother me, right? Like, yes, there's inflationary risk, whatever. But to me, cash is a position. And if I don't feel like I have a good...
Because buying right is, if you buy right, then you can let things come down, right? Like I shared with you guys, I bought NVIDIA in 2016. I have gotten, I have sold most of it. I still have a small position in NVIDIA. But when you buy right, you can sit through pullbacks. You can sit through drawdowns. You can sit through because you've already capitalized.
your gains. And, and, but you know, cash is a position. And I, I believe that I don't believe in chasing things. You know, Palantir, that's another, it's a beautiful stock. And, and, but not now, but it was a beautiful stock and people were like, you know, they're, they're, they're getting in at the highs because, because of that FOMO. But if you got in at the highs, you know, I, I,
I'm watching it now because it's very close to the 50 day moving average. It's come down super hard. So am I going to buy it now? No, but I'm going to look for it to form a base. And if I can get like a good entry point that is within 8% of the, of the 10 week moving average, I will get in, but no, I'm going to look for strength. But yes. So a lot of people, they were like, how did you, you know, you weren't in Palantir or, you know, like, didn't you have FOMO? I'm like, no, I missed it, you know, but yeah,
you have to be disciplined. And when you trade out of fear, like I honestly believe this, right? Like if you do anything out of fear, you're going to make decisions that aren't the best for you. So, you know, and, and as you said, so again, I know not everyone, I I'm, I'm so grateful for the life I've had. I'm so grateful for the opportunities I've had, but you know, I, I keep a few years worth of cash because when I read how to make money in stocks, I,
Bill O'Neill had said that in general, again, you've got years that are going to be different, but I think the average correction was two and a half years. I'm saying this to you, Justin, you know, you probably know this way better than me. You can correct my numbers. But so my thought was if I have three years worth of cash,
even if the market crashes, I'm not worried about how am I going to pay my mortgage? How am I going to get food? How am I going to, you know, I'm thinking from, okay, when, from a stock perspective, when is the right time to get in? And again, for, for, for people that, that aren't retired, for people that are working, think of it, you know, it's like you have your paycheck, right? So, so, you know, invest the money that you can, um,
invest without being scared of it going down because it's going to go down. You just have to be prepared. So for me, I, I, I've shared this before. I know all the, the, the best, you know, uh, uh, Bill O'Neill, Mark Minervini, they have super concentrated positions. I was not able to do that. Why? Because I don't watch the market every day. If I had a 10% position and then I, or a
20% position, I missed something, it would like come down really hard. I couldn't sit and let it come down to the levels that I really like. So I go with smaller positions. And yes, does that mean that, you know, because I'm not concentrated that I'm leaving money on the table when I have an NVIDIA? Of course. But at the same time, I could sit through NVIDIA's drawdowns because I let it pull back because I'm prepared. And, you know, I
A number of people have said this, that the best stocks, you know, when the market crashes, 80% of stocks will go down 50% or more, and maybe 50% of stocks will go down 80% or more. So am I prepared for that? And I only will have a position size where if that happens, not that I want it to happen or not that I'm expecting it to happen, but if it happens, I'm not, you know, I'm not out. Like I'm still able to do what I need to do.
So let's shift a little bit to kind of a little bit more of the stock discussion. And then I want to circle back and kind of talk about the current market. But...
You are talking about some longer-term holdings here on your stock. You already told us about how precise you are on your entries for TQQQ. What about for stocks? What is it that you're looking for when you're getting into a stock? How much of it is fundamental? How much of it is technical? What's your process there?
Yeah. So I've been asked that before. I always start with fundamentals. So it's hard for me to put a percentage because if it does not meet my fundamentals, I don't even look at it. Again, I've missed a lot of stocks that had great technicals and I just never got in. And again, that doesn't bother me. So from a fundamental perspective, I am a can't slim person.
So I look for like very strong, you know, even to kind of narrow it down, very strong earnings and sales, a minimum of 25%. Most of the stocks where I have done well, I think they had earnings and sales of 40% or higher. That's just going back and looking at, at,
my stuff, there's not any rule about that, but 25%, I look for the market to be in an uptrend. I buy early stage basis, stage one or stage two, as Bill O'Neill defined them. And why do I buy early stage basis? Because he said many of the great leaders, they do pull back. They will undercut the 50-day. They will undercut the 10-week when they're forming a new base. And again, hopefully at that point, you have a profit cushion.
But I'm buying an early stage base so that I can hold it for a few pullbacks and not...
Again, yes, it doesn't feel good when it pulls back. But if it's to be expected and the great stocks have done that, then I'm thinking, okay, you know, I have a position size I'm comfortable with. It's pulling back, but this is to be expected. You know, it's going to happen and I'm going to just let it do its thing. Yes, when you have it, when it comes down like a knife and it's not acting right, that's different. But a lot of the great stocks, they have orderly pullbacks, but they still go down.
You know, and so that's okay. So early stage basis, very strong, you know, earnings and sales. I do care about like the institutional sponsorship. So I look at things like the up-down ratio. I look at your accumulation distribution rating. You guys have made it so easy with the tools that you provide. And I look at price and volume. And, you know, again, I don't watch...
the news that much, but again, I've heard some rumblings about, okay, it's volume accurate. Is it not accurate? It's not so much about the volume. It's more about like, is there, look at the supply and demand. And to me, the easiest way to gauge supply and demand is the price and volume action for other people. They might have other rules, but if, you know, I'm, I'm looking at that and, and that's where I pick things. And so a lot of times when I'm getting in,
And it's hard, like when the market right now, right, like we've had some recent pullbacks or whatever, but really the market has been going up since the end of 2022, right? So a lot of stocks are in like higher stage basis. So if I'm buying with the intention to hold it through pullbacks, I generally won't go in if it's a stage three or stage four base, you know? Right.
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So let's maybe talk about a few of the stocks that are on your radar right now, and you can kind of talk about why. Where would you like to start? Duolingo. Duolingo. And, yeah, this is one that I actually owned, you know,
pretty recently. I bought it here, but I got scared out, especially ahead of earnings. So what is it that you're looking for on this one? And do you use this? I know that you know Spanish very well, right? Well, I was...
I, Spanish was one of my majors in college, which was many years ago. So I, so I'm still working on Spanish myself. So maybe I need to, you know, so my husband and I were going to Machu Picchu. So I'm going to do like a crash refresher course on Spanish. Yeah. So I, I did many, many years ago. I'm in my fifties now in my twenties, I was a very good Spanish speaker. Not so much anymore. Okay.
But I did use Duolingo. I used it when my family was going to France. I used it to learn French, which was another language I learned when I was in high school and college. And one other thing I have to share about Duolingo. So when I was in the investing championship in 2024, I had Duolingo and I got shaken out. I bought it like in February or March. I got shaken out and and.
So when it recovered in August of 2024, I bought it in a different account. I didn't buy it in my championship account. I bought it in a different account. But so what I like about it, first of all, it's a product I've used and it's very fun. So, you know, you and I, we've talked before, we joke around that usually I follow what my kids are doing and it's served me very well. This is something I did myself and I liked it.
So I believe in the product. And, you know, if you look at the fundamentals on the weekly chart, they have great earnings and sales in the last quarter. You know, again, 600 percent earnings, 40 percent sales increase.
You know, after COVID, there's been a huge demand for travel. And when people are traveling, a lot of times they want to learn if they're going to a country where they don't know the language they want to learn. So Duolingo, to me, it fits that trend of traveling. I do look ahead to the next one to two quarters. I don't look ahead more than that because when I was at Aetna and I was responsible for earnings for the business segment that I owned,
It doesn't matter how great of a strategy you have. You can't predict what's going to happen in the world, right? So any company that's trying to tell you what they're going to do for five years, that's their intention. But can they actually achieve it? I don't know. I have my doubts. But generally, the next few quarters, companies know because they have contracts locked in or they know what's going on with the short-term direction.
So this has, you know, it has great, you know, prospects going forward. And I know the stock. And one of my favorite things, as I've said, is I need to size to, not size, I need to set a stop loss to a level that I can,
I believe even if a stock is acting right, it can pull back too. And many times it's the 10 week moving average. So here it is, if I, and again, it has earnings in two days, I don't, or one day now, I guess. I don't buy right before earnings, but
But I'm going to wait for earnings. If I can get in within 8% of the 10-week moving average, I'm getting in like when it's turning up from forming a base. That's what attracts me. The fundamentals as well as from a technical perspective and from my stop-loss setting perspective, it's something where I would be comfortable with this. Mm-hmm.
No, it makes sense. You know, one of the stocks that you were putting on my radar, one that hadn't really kind of crossed my liquidity requirements, was a United Kingdom stock. And remind me what the name of that was, Marex? MRX. MRX, yeah. So this is a recent IPO. And, you know, again, sometimes, you
you know, overseas, it might have a little bit less liquidity here, but maybe it's a big blockbuster. Now, this one looks like it's already gone on quite a run. So how do you kind of see yourself getting into this one?
So I'm not in it right now. So you've had Kathy Donnelly on your show. I love her. I love the IPO, you know, the IPO book that she and Eve Babak and other people have written about. The Life Cycle Trade. Yeah. Life Cycle Trade. Yeah. So...
So this to me looks like it's on a run, but I have not gotten in. I would need to find a position where it would be able to pull back to the 10 week moving average. And right now I think it's pretty extended. So I would not be able to get it now, but it is on my radar because when you see, you know, I'm thinking back to like how to make money in stocks and all those, you know, hundred charts.
that Bill shared. A lot of the strong companies, they have charts that look like this, right? So it's finding the right time to get in. So for me, I have not yet, as you said, the market cap is pretty small. I would probably, if I were to initiate, I would go with a small position. But right now it's not at a level where I think I could set
a good stop loss. And, you know, we didn't talk too much about this, but with your individual stocks, how much are you willing to let it come in on you? You know, especially when you've had something for a long time, you've got some good gains on it. How much of those are you willing to give up in order to get an even bigger gain potentially?
Yeah, so I have a couple of rules. Again, these are not scientific. I'm not a professional investor. I'm kind of like a regular person who's figured out how to make this work for me. So this is something I learned from one of my brothers. If I have a stock that goes up 100%, I sell half of it. And that way, even if it comes down to zero, I'm still having... Again...
you know, a lot of people, whatever gains you have, that is your real money, right? But I still think of it as, okay, like if it's proven itself, I'm going to take my gains and then I'm going to let it run. The other rule that I have that I think I shared this on IBD Live is every year at the end of the year, I look at my whole portfolio. I decide what I want to keep. I look at the position sizes and I decide what position size am I comfortable with if this stock were to go down 80% or 50%. And so...
Again, it's the opposite of the concentration that a lot of the true experts do. I'm not a true expert, so I scale down. NVIDIA is a perfect example. My dollar cost basis on the position I have in NVIDIA is under $1.
It can pull back to whatever. I'm still going to make money on it. So once I have made my game... And I sold a lot of it, a lot of it on the way up. So right now, the only reason I'm holding NVIDIA is because I believe in their story. And at the point that I no longer believe in their story, I'm getting out. So I...
You know, once I've made the gains I want to make, the only companies I hold are the ones where I believe in their story. Otherwise, there are so many other opportunities out there. And if I believe in the story, then I'm going to wait until I no longer believe in the story. Once I've made my money and I have a gain, then I wait. So the pullbacks, they don't.
They don't bother me. And in order to get to your cost basis, I mean, we have to go on a monthly chart to kind of get down to the dollar level. It was 2016. Yeah. So 2016, you know, I mean, it was coming out of a perfect cup with handle in March of 2016. It was around $32 at the time. Of course, now it's had some splits.
Um, do you ever, you know, if you're selling into some of this strength and taking some off the table, uh, do you ever buy back the position and kind of go, go back in heavier?
Yeah, so people have asked me that. So remember, I quit my job in 2013. I have no new money coming in. So in order for me to add or buy back, I have to sell something else. So I think that's why I don't add because I don't have new money coming in. But yes, I had new money coming in for sure. NVIDIA gave you multiple opportunities to get in.
okay, I want to circle back. Let's go back to the market. And I'm just going to pull up the NASDAQ, you know, or, or, you know what, let's, let's do the cues. And I was wondering the, the entire time when you're looking at the levels, you were looking at TQQQ, which again, sometimes will act a little bit differently long-term, especially when you get into a choppy market. So based on the QQQ action here, you know,
Um, what, what is kind of, um, and we can switch back to TQQQ since you know that those numbers so much better. Um, but what, what is kind of your, your assessment of the market? We're still kind of in this choppy phase, so that can be kind of detrimental for leveraged, um, instruments. Um, how do you, how do you handle that? Are you selling some as we get to the top of the range or are you, um, how are you handling it?
Yeah, so again, it's trading in a range. So it's not doing anything that is unexpected. So my entry level where I got in, it was where...
If it undercut that, if you look at the Q's, the 499.7, if it undercut that, it's no longer trading in a range. So whatever my hypothesis would have been would be wrong. And then maybe it's going to go down to the 200-day. So I would get out. As long as it's trading in a range, I agree.
I let it fluctuate. It's volatile. And if you can't handle the volatility, then this isn't the right stock for you. Right now, the range is 93.79, 73.34. So as long as it stays above the 200-day moving average, it stays above the 73.34, I'm holding it. When it goes to the 93.79, I'm going to be looking for, does it hit resistance or does it break through that? If it hits resistance, the first time it hits resistance, I'm still going to watch.
The second time it hits resistance, maybe I will sell some. I'm still going to watch. The third time it hits resistance and it's not able to break through, then I'm getting out because most likely it's going to pull back. And again, there's no science behind it. It's just what I've observed from watching this for many, many years.
And one other kind of question here is right now the, the queues seem a little bit weaker than SPY. Um, so the relative strength has come in. Um, if we just look at the S and P 500 or, you know, we can, we can pull up SPY, uh, the, the ETF, um, you know, this, this has been holding up a little bit better. It didn't undercut this level, uh, like the NASDAQ did or the queues, um,
It's still holding well above that level, but do you ever switch to Upro to get the triple leverage there instead of TQQQ? I have not. And again, a lot of people, they ask me about Upro. A lot of people ask me about SQQQ. Again,
again, SQQQ is the opposite, right? Of what you're talking about here. But I have not because I don't know those charts. Right. And so my, my strategy is I trade TQQQ or individual stocks. So as you said, yes, TQQQ is not acting as strong. So I have, I have different individual stocks that are on my watch list. And my intention is not to hold TQQQ long-term. It's okay. When I find something to get into, I'm going to get out. Um,
But yes, for that as a source of funds to fund your individual stock purchases. And instead of like being in cash when the market looks like it has turned around, I'm getting some gains. Right. And then again, it takes some of the pressure off that FOMO you talked about.
I don't have FOMO because my money is invested in something that I feel confident in. So yeah, so then I'm going to be super selective. On IBD Live, we talked about, you know, I don't marry stocks, but I do move in with them. I want something I can hold for some period of time, hopefully a long time, you know, so that's my strategy. And if I can't, then I will just let it be in TQQQ and I go in and out of
TQQQ and cash. But yes, I think, you know, like the S&P 500, it has a lot more, you know, QQQ is more technology or whatever, like the growth stocks. You have financial stocks in S&P 500. So it is much more diverse. And, you know, when I started my trading career, I took...
Yeah.
Yeah, again, there's a lot of ways to make money in the market. You do have to find what's right for you. And it really does seem like you've found that. You found what works for you and lets you lead the lifestyle that you want. So congratulations on that. Congratulations on being on the U.S. Investing Championship Leaderboard once again. Again, it's a nice accomplishment. So while you keep on referring to yourself as not a true expert,
You know, you're no slouch. You know, I should also mention that that wasn't that was in the million dollar plus money manager division. So you weren't you know, you weren't using chump change to get those results. This is this is real money. This is real money. And this is what I live off. So I you know, again, it's great to have big gains. But my goal is to, you know,
I can't touch my IRAs yet. I'm not at that age. My goal is to be able to live my life, you know? And so, yeah, Viva, it was so great having you on the podcast. I I'm, I'm just sad that we, we waited so long, you know? So, uh, uh, I'm sure we'll do it again, but really appreciate you coming on.
Absolutely. That's going to wrap it up for us this week. Thank you so much for joining us. And of course, next week, we're going to be right back here live at five on Wednesday. And this time around, we're going to have Dan Fitzpatrick, who is visiting us again. He, of course, is from the stockmarketmentor.com. He has been on IBD Live a number of times, trained under John Bollinger. He's a real fascinating trader and we'll get into what he thinks about the market and some of his strategies.
This IBD podcast is brought to you by Directions Daily Leveraged and Inverse ETFs. Whether you are a bull or a bear, you choose the direction. Visit direction.com.
Investing in the funds involves significant risk and should only be utilized by investors who understand the impact of leverage and actively monitor their portfolio. They are not designed to track the underlying index for more than a day. Before investing, carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses contained in the prospectus available at direction.com. Read carefully. Distributor, Alps Distributors, Inc.