What Are We Getting Wrong About Young Voters?, with Cathy Cohen
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There's one question on just about everyone's mind this year. It's all anyone can think about, all anyone can talk about, and that is what's going to happen with the elections in November. This race for the White House certainly looked a lot different than it does now. But after a chaotic summer unfolded before our eyes, a race has changed and brought with it historic moments sure to be discussed for generations to come. This race is crazy.

Close. Yes. Historically close. Historically close. There are many unique features of this race, but there is one aspect of every election season that is always the same.

A question asked time and again: How are young people going to vote? A new poll shows young voters could be the ones to ultimately decide this race. The power of the Gen Z vote is making some presidential candidates shift their focus. And in this election, there is special attention being paid to how young people of color are going to vote. Vice President Harris is leading the push to court voters of color. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns

are looking to court voters in the state's so-called Latino belt. Pennsylvania put President Joe Biden over the top in 2020 and is expected to play a big role in this year's election. - Well, you know, I think there's a real interest in young people and if they will turn out. My concern is it's complicated. - That's Kathy Cohn, a distinguished professor of political science at the University of Chicago. - The votes and the actions and the beliefs and agendas of young people

matter and they're going to matter in this election possibly even more because they're going to be razor thin margins by which candidates win states and electoral and win the electoral college. When it comes to studying what young people care about politically, what their biggest concerns are and how they feel about the candidates, there is surprisingly very little good research out there.

Cohn changed all that with her one-of-a-kind GenForward survey. So I started this project in 2016 with the kind of changing demographics of the country on our way to becoming a majority people of color country. And at the time in 2016, the movements that were being led by young people, for example, the Black Lives Matter global movement, it seemed to me that we should be kind of hearing from centering people

the opinions, the politics, the preferences of young people and in particular young folks of color. And I just didn't see that showing up in our discourse and our decision making.

And then when you pair that with the kind of growing evolution of the 24-hour news cycle, right, where there was a need for content all the time, and increasingly that content showed up as polls, right? The American public thinks this, and then there'd be a panel of people interpreting what the American public said in a survey. Those surveys underrepresented the number of young people and folks of color and young people of color.

to really dig deep and interrogate how they were thinking about the world. So really, GenForward is an attempt to intervene and to solve some of those problems. With turnout often lower amongst young people, despite the size of their cohort, every political candidate is always trying to understand what animates them.

If young people aren't voting, it's in part their fault. But we know that from lots of data that in fact the way people get to vote is one, it's habitual, so we start them early. Two, we provide the infrastructure, so we need to mobilize people. Three, we need to make sure in fact that there are politicians who speak to the needs and the issues and concerns of young people.

That's what we're trying to build, right? We're trying to say, if you build an agenda, they will come, right? It's the building dreams. So what exactly is the agenda that young people are looking for this election year?

And are the current candidates building it? And so I do think it matters. And I think it matters in particular in swinging states where this is going to be a very close election and a higher turnout by young people can move those states. Welcome to Big Brains, where we translate the biggest ideas and complex discoveries into digestible brain food. Big Brains, Little Bites from the University of Chicago Podcast Network.

I'm your host, Paul Rand. On today's episode, what the research says about reaching young voters. The University of Chicago Leadership and Society Initiative guides accomplished executive leaders in transitioning from their longstanding careers into purposeful on-court chapters of leadership for society.

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In a crowded landscape of political surveys and polls, the GenForward survey is truly one of a kind. So our survey is both complicated and pretty straightforward. Like most, when we decide we're going to do a survey, we figure out the outline and what are the subject areas that we want to cover.

We then go out and I don't do it, but they're often postdocs and research analysts who help with this process. They'll go out and find, let's say, 300 questions that cover the subjects that we're investigating or interrogating. We then kind of spend weeks narrowing that down to about 60 questions. And we turn that over to NORC and they produce data for us. Usually takes about two weeks to be in the field.

We get the data back.

We investigate and interrogate and make sure the data is up to par. It always is. Then we analyze it and disseminate it, right? The idea is not just to collect data, but in fact, try to engage people in thinking with young people about the political world. So let me just say one other thing about our sample, which is because we have this deep commitment to young people and folks of color and young people of color,

We do this thing called oversampling. So we sample many more African-American, Latinx, Asian Pacific Islander respondents than traditional surveys do, in part because we want to feel comfortable and confident when we disaggregate that data. And we want to be able to say something about Black men versus Black women.

Okay. If I can just start digging into some of the survey results that come out, is that really many of the young people really are just unfavorable toward both parties at this stage. Yes. And is that different than what you've seen historically? And why do we think we are where we are? Yeah.

Yeah, I think this is something we find over and over again. This is a pretty consistent finding. Young adults generally are not happy with either party or really the two party system, they would say. Moreover, when we ask a question about do you think democracy is working, majorities maybe except for Democrats and Republicans.

an interesting finding this time, young African-American adults believe that our current democratic system also is not working, right? And I think it makes sense. I always say that these young people are working with an expansive understanding of democracy. They're not just talking about, am I able to vote? They're saying, you know, how do you handle criminal justice?

Young Black people are still being killed. They're thinking about foreign policy, and they may not like Biden's policies around Gaza, right? They may not like how the Republicans think about and talk about immigration. I think for many young people, they believe the government is not functioning to their advantage or to focus on them. So it's kind of not surprising that they would say,

I disapprove of both the Republicans and the Democrats at this point. But within that broader trend, there are nuances. One of the major narratives in 2024 has been what many consider a surprising shift among voters of color.

With the elections so close between Trump and Harris, not a single voting block or vote can be taken for granted. When it comes to the Latino vote, Harris has, well, a complicated relationship. Former President Donald Trump made a fresh pitch to Black voters in the battleground state of Michigan over the weekend.

If you visit this street corner in Milwaukee's historically black Bronzeville neighborhood, you'll find a Republican Party outpost in a Democratic stronghold. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows former President Trump gaining ground among Latino voters. Yeah, you know, I think there is a trend where, I'm not sure I'd say the Republican Party, but I think Trump is winning over some voters of color, okay?

So for example, in our last survey in May, 2024, we found that not only did about a quarter of young black men, 25% say they were gonna vote for Trump, but for the first time, 22% of young black women also indicated

that they would vote for Trump. We saw a similar dynamic among other groups with, for example, 25% of Latinas, young Latinx women, and 40% of Latino men saying they plan to vote for Trump. However, with the announcement of Vice President Harris as the head of the Democratic ticket, we've seen kind of changes in those numbers, especially among those who identify as women.

So in the most recent survey, there was a 34 percentage point increase among young black women from 34 percent for white to 68 percent. Yes. To 68 percent for Harris. Not surprising. Right. With only about 12 percent indicating that they would vote for Trump. So what we're seeing Harris do, at least initially, is consolidate the Democratic base.

in particular women across racial groups who are coming back to Harris. Now, there are still 27% of Black men who will indicate, right, that they're going to vote for Trump. And so in our previous survey, we wanted to get a better sense of kind of why

This is a big data point for the media, but let's ask why. And I guess I want to be clear that those respondents are not making what some believe to be a kind of nonsensical decision about supporting Trump, at least from their assessment. So, for example, when we ask who was best able to manage the government, more chose Trump than Biden.

When we asked, especially for young men, who was the strongest leader, more chose Trump over Biden. When we asked, you know, who would have the most positive impact on improving your life and your family's life, young men, especially white and Latinx young men, they were choosing Trump over Biden.

In their heads, Trump is a strong leader, right? He represents a type of strong masculinity maybe that they identify with or they want to replicate. They believe that, in fact, he will do more for their families. When we ask about assessments of the economy, Biden gets a negative assessment of the economy.

When we ask about Trump's handling of the economy, majorities of young whites say, yes, he will improve the economy and he did improve the economy. And pluralities of Latinx respondents said Trump improved the economy.

So for these voters, young voters, in particular young men, Trump will improve their lives. Cohen's research doesn't just ask how these voters are thinking about the candidates, but also about the issues, specifically how young people rank their importance. If you watch the news or read the headlines, you might think that social issues like LGBTQ plus rights or the war in Gaza would be at the top of the list.

but the real answers might surprise you. That's after the break. If you're getting a lot out of the important research shared on big brains, there's another University of Chicago podcast network show you should check out. It's called Entitled, and it's about human rights. Co-hosted by lawyers and New Chicago Law School professors Claudia Flores and Tom Ginsberg, Entitled explores the stories around why rights matter and what's the matter with rights.

A crucial part of the GenForward survey is having participants rank the issues they find most concerning or important. There's this narrative out there that young people are only focused on social issues, but... When we ask a question like, thinking about the 2024 election, what's the most important issue you're considering? What we find across young adults...

you know, whether it is by race or by party, the issue that emerges as a number one issue is inflation over and over and over again, often followed by kind of other economic issues such as income inequality, economic growth, and even high taxes.

This trend is evident even when we ask about what's the most important issue facing your community. When we ask that the number one issue across groups again is housing affordability. So the economy is and was front of mind for young adults. And when you kind of combine that focus on the economy with their assessment of Biden's handling of the economy, you begin to see kind of where the low approval ratings come from.

Majorities of young adults, independent, again, of age, of race, gender, disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy. And as we talk about this, how much shadow of this disapproval floats over Harris? Yeah, this is going to be the question that, in fact, I probably can't answer for you. But it is going to be the question she is going to have to navigate, right? And we see it happening already. I think she is...

dealing with a president who feels uh very proud of his record and continues to say it's the strongest economy in the world but as others have said many many pundits have noted right that is not how people feel about the economy that might be a structural truth it is not a daily lived experience truth for for many people especially for young people so i think what we see harris um

pivoting a bit is to say, let's think about the issue. So I thought it was quite interesting that, you know, in our survey, we find young people saying, hey, housing affordability is our issue. And then we see Harris offering up a plan to make housing more affordable, right? Give folks $25,000 plus build out the surplus of housing. So, you know, I think she's going to have to walk that line, right? And I think it's going to be interesting to see if she's successful.

So are you seeing the Harris-Waltz ticket paying attention in a way that you find encouraging of targeting or engaging younger voters? Well, I think that ticket is paying attention, right? I think it's the memes that everyone laughs about. We know that about 70% of our respondents say that they get their information and news

about politics on social media, including, yes, TikTok. And so it's kind of like, if you want to speak to them, you've got to go in those spaces, in fact, where they are populating, and you have to communicate with them in a way that they recognize and resonate with. So I think that's one thing.

Maybe more importantly to me are what will the policies do for young people? And I think, for example, this question about building an opportunity economy that Harris has been articulating, I think could speak to young people, right? It is both the housing affordability. It is probably the continuation of student loan debt forgiveness, right? In our survey, we asked a question about...

Do you support student debt forgiveness? And surprisingly, both grads and non-grads support that idea, right? So there was an argument that said, look, kids who don't go to college don't support this because it doesn't do anything for them. But in fact, they do support it. So I think that's another issue.

We know that there's real concern among young people around gun violence. I think she will be able to articulate a policy about, you know, ban on assault weapons that will matter to young people. So I think there's the potential and we have 11 weeks now or however long to see, you

If she can articulate that agenda or if for some, maybe Trump also articulates an agenda that speaks to young people. If you watch the news, especially in the spring, you would assume that Gaza was the overwhelming topic of concern to young people. But in actuality, that's not necessarily, as you're saying, the point. No.

And I want to be careful here, right? Because we can say, well, it didn't rise to the top. It doesn't mean that people don't have strong feelings. It's, you know, we're asking what's going to be the most important issue for you when you make your decision in November. Doesn't mean that there aren't other issues that are important. It's just not the most important. So that's the first thing. Second thing I would say is, you know, Gaza is an example of where there is real variation. So, for example, when we ask a question about do you approve

the US providing military aid to Israel there aren't clear for most groups there aren't clear majorities there are more people who say they disapprove then say they approve okay and then there are significant numbers in the middle who say I neither approve nor disapprove right so to your point we would think that everyone has a clear opinion about

on Gaza, and that is not necessarily the case. Now, I'm going to say that when we ask the question, do you approve or disapprove of providing humanitarian aid to Gaza, to Palestinians in Gaza, there is much more support for that.

right than the military aid to israel and much less disapproval than the military aid to israel right so i would say that there is more support for humanitarian aid to gaza than there is for military aid to israel but there are still those young people in the middle who

who are unwilling to kind of line up and take a position on this. Last thing I'm going to say about Gaza, which is, again, remember, this is a national survey. And I want to say that there's a strong contingent of young people in Michigan who feel very strongly about Gaza. And that's because? Well, that's because there's a large population of Arab Americans. And those young people

feel so strongly that they are willing to possibly withhold their vote from the Democratic Party. That's not going to show up on a national survey because maybe there are 200 respondents on a national survey from Michigan. And when you're, you know, when you're surveying over 2,000, it's just not going to have the same impact. Are they not worried about the environment and climate change anymore? Yes, they are worried about the environment. So if you ask the question,

Do you think we all have a responsibility to deal with climate change and the environment? They say yes. Does the government have a responsibility? They say yes. But at this moment, when you're saying, what are the top five issues animating your thoughts about the country, about your communities, even about the election?

Climate change is not in those top fives right now. It's a cross-sectional survey, meaning at one point, and that could change by the time we get back to it. Even though the economy may be the most concerning issue for young voters, there are still important nuances. Young people are deeply concerned about the economy. Absolutely.

But another finding that has been consistent since 2016 when I started this survey is that when you ask young African-Americans about issues that are most important to them,

They say racism, right? They say gun violence. These are issues that you can think of them also as economic issues. Racism impacts your ability, for example, to get the job of your choice. And by the way, is there a standard or agreed upon definition of what racism means in this case? On a survey, you don't define it. And so people define it for themselves.

In this case, we could be talking about structural racism, the way in which race impacts the distribution of opportunities and resources, disadvantaging groups that have been racialized in negative ways. Right. So we'll we'll go with that one. So, you know, young people are saying young black people are saying, well, of course, the economy is an issue for me at this moment.

consistently throughout my life, I am worried about issues of racism. I am worried that in fact, there's over-policing in my community or that there's police harassment or that I won't be able to get into school or that the Supreme Court has rejected affirmative action. We can take the Latinx community also where in fact, immigration pops to number two issue. And

Again, behind the economy. Yeah, behind the economy. But we can also think of immigration as an economic issue. But I think for young Latinx folks that we have talked to, it is both concerns about how we are treating migrants as they are bussed throughout the country. It is proposals about deporting immigrants.

individuals who might be undocumented, who might be their family members, right? So there's a kind of deep concern, again, about a social justice issue. In this case, the issue of immigration. And then, you know, I'll say the concerns about a

rise to number two, abortion and reproductive rights. When we look at what Democrats are concerned with, yes, the economy, but also reproductive rights. Number two for Democrats. Okay. Democrats. And that is driven a lot by young women, in particular white women and Asian and Pacific Islander young women. Right. So there are just lots of issues out there. And while we can read the data as all this is about the economy, and it is,

There are other issues that are also animating their vote choice and how they think about the political world that we have to pay attention to. You mentioned, but I want you to dig into this a little bit more about where people are getting their information from. If it's not newspapers or traditional news channels, where are young people getting their information and how is that changing the way candidates are working to reach them?

So when we ask young people about where you get your news and we go through an entire list, do you get it from the radio? Do you get it from newspapers? Do you get it from local news programs?

overwhelmingly they say they get it from social media. The question for candidates is how do you both talk to young people, young adults on social media in a way that is providing important information, but that is also engaging. And some of that I think we're beginning to realize is

the intermediaries of influencers, right? So we've seen Trump do a number of interviews as well as Harris with important influencers who have millions of followers. So while the press is saying Harris needs to do an interview, right?

I think her handlers may be saying, you need to do an interview, but not with Lester Holt, but with an influencer online. That's who you need, who may not ask the hard hitting questions that we would expect. But I think the kind of media strategy for candidates today is evolving quickly and looks very different maybe than even when a Barack Obama was running in 2008 to 2019.

Well, based on that, as we're talking about how they would take those words and of the work that you're doing, do you look at this and say, I feel confident at this stage that

making a prediction on who I think is going to cross the finish line. Oh, no, no, no, no. I mean, I think I believe this is going to be an incredibly tight race. I'm going to be conservative. I think it's going to be an incredibly tight race. It is possible. If anyone's going to have a blowout, I think it will be Harris. If there's enough

engagement, if she could get enough of the swing states in play that were in play back with Obama, for example, North Carolina really becomes a possibility. If Georgia moves to leaning blue, if Arizona, you know, I think there's an upside for Harris to go beyond, far beyond 270. However,

That is, I think, unlikely. And I think it will be a tight race where turnout in precincts and swing states will really matter. And so in the end, it may be who has the best infrastructure.

not just message, but infrastructure, as we talked about earlier, to truly mobilize individuals, to bring new people into a kind of electoral arena, to make sure that they have, as Michelle Obama would say, a voting plan, and that we're knocking on their door on the day of the election and making sure that they get to the polls. I think in the end, that will probably be the determination of who wins this election. In terms of...

Ending on maybe a more positive note, is this idea, are our young people feeling more or less optimistic versus pessimistic? And what did you find? Well, here's the thing. All the data, all our data suggests they are pessimistic.

Very pessimistic about the state of the economy, their position in the economy, their ability to handle an emergency of $1,000. So I say all of that. But then we always ask this question. Do you feel optimistic about your future? Mm-hmm.

And generally they say yes. So they can say, oh, the economy is horrible. I'm not sure I can pay my rent, but I feel optimistic about my future. And I think this is young people betting on themselves, right? To say even amongst this kind of chaos that is not built to facilitate my growth,

I feel like I'm going to find a way, right? I'm going to bet on myself. I'm going to get a job. If I have to, I'm going to get to, I'm going to find a way to get to school, you know, to pay, you know, to pay tuition. And in the end, after I go through all this, hopefully I will have had a good life, right? And if we can really facilitate their growth, right, then they are already waiting for

in terms of their optimism about what is possible, that they can truly transform the country. Big Brains is a production of the University of Chicago Podcast Network. We're sponsored by the Graham School. Are you a lifelong learner with an insatiable curiosity? Access more than 50 open enrollment courses every quarter. Learn more at graham.uchicago.edu slash bigbrains. If you like what you heard on our podcast, please leave us a rating and review.

The show is hosted by Paul M. Rand and produced by Leah Cesarine and me, Matt Hodap. Thanks for listening.