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cover of episode IMF's Gita Gopinath: What's ahead for economic growth in 2025 - and what leaders must do now

IMF's Gita Gopinath: What's ahead for economic growth in 2025 - and what leaders must do now

2025/1/22
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World Economic Forum
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Gita Gopinath: 我认为,对2025年经济增长的预测,最需要注意的两个词是“差异”和“不确定性”。一方面,美国经济表现好于预期,相当强劲;另一方面,欧洲经济疲软,中国面临诸多挑战。这种差异非常重要。此外,全球政策存在巨大不确定性,包括财政政策、移民政策和投资方向等,这些都增加了不确定性。 就机遇而言,新兴技术,特别是生成式人工智能,有潜力提高全球生产力。如果进展顺利,它可能将全球GDP提高0.8个百分点,这将是巨大的进步。各国还可以寻求融入全球供应链的机会。 至于风险,全球政策存在诸多不确定性,借贷成本高企,一些国家的货币兑美元贬值,这些都可能带来挑战。 Linda Lucina: 根据Gita Gopinath的分析,我们需要关注哪些关键风险和机遇?全球公共债务高企,达到100万亿美元,并且还在增长,这需要立即关注。各国需要采取有利于增长的财政调整措施,优先考虑公共投资,同时提高支出效率。政府应关注三个方面的财政政策:确保其有利于增长;建立保障措施,即健全的财政框架;以及争取公众支持。

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How will inflation, conflict and technological change shape economies in the year ahead? The International Monetary Fund’s First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath sat down with Meet The Leader at the World Economic Forum‘s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland to share what's next for global growth. She identified the statistics that she found most compelling and the risks and opportunities leaders must prioritize in 2025. She also described the pivot countries will need to make in fiscal policy to tackle historic levels of global public debt (levels that could hit the $100 trillion mark) and how "optimism bias" could stand in the way.  This special episode of interview of Meet The Leader was recorded at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. About the research cited: IMF World Economic Outlook: Find a transcript here: