The Jackpod: Casualties of war
On Point | Podcast
Deep Dive
What is the connection between the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the rise of ISIS?
The general consensus among researchers is that ISIS would not exist without the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The invasion and subsequent mismanagement of Iraq created the conditions for ISIS to emerge, as it destabilized the region and provided a power vacuum that ISIS exploited.
How did ISIS impact the U.S. domestically despite not directly attacking the country?
ISIS inspired several lone-wolf attacks in the U.S., such as the 2017 truck attack in Times Square and the 2025 New Orleans incident. These attacks, though not directly orchestrated by ISIS, were motivated by its ideology, leading to domestic casualties and highlighting the indirect impact of the U.S.-ISIS conflict.
What role did Donald Trump's anti-war rhetoric play in his 2016 election victory?
Donald Trump's anti-war rhetoric, particularly his criticism of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, resonated with voters in counties with high war casualties. Research shows that these areas, which had previously voted against George Bush in 2004, heavily supported Trump in 2016. His stance against 'stupid wars' helped him secure key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which were crucial to his victory.
What are the potential economic consequences of a war with Iran?
A war with Iran could cost between $60 billion to $2 trillion in the first three months alone, with oil prices potentially spiking to $250 a barrel. This would have a staggering impact on the global economy, particularly the U.S., as Iran is a major oil producer. The Iraq War, by comparison, saw oil prices rise from $23 to $140 a barrel in 2008.
How did U.S. support for the Mujahideen in the 1980s contribute to later conflicts?
U.S. support for the Mujahideen in Afghanistan during the 1980s helped them defeat the Soviets, but the Mujahideen later evolved into the Taliban, which provided safe harbor for Osama bin Laden. This chain of events, known as 'blowback,' illustrates how U.S. interventions abroad can have long-term, unintended consequences, including the rise of groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
What is the 'meddler's trap' and how does it relate to U.S. foreign policy?
The 'meddler's trap' refers to the unintended consequences of foreign interventions, where actions taken to address one problem often create new ones. For example, the U.S. invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein led to the rise of ISIS. This pattern highlights the risks of interventionist policies and the difficulty of predicting their long-term effects.
How did war casualties influence voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election?
Counties with higher war casualties, particularly those that lost loved ones in Iraq and Afghanistan, voted heavily for Donald Trump in 2016. Research indicates that if the casualty rates in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan had been lower, similar to New York's rates, Hillary Clinton might have won the election. This suggests a hidden anti-war sentiment among voters directly affected by the wars.
What is the potential impact of a Trump presidency on American democracy?
If Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promises to use federal power for political revenge, it could lead to an authoritarian state, significantly abridging American democracy. His rhetoric and actions suggest a willingness to undermine democratic norms, which could have long-lasting consequences for the U.S. political system.
What is the significance of Trump's stance on war compared to other political figures?
Trump was unique among 2016 presidential candidates in openly denouncing the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as 'stupid' and wasteful. This contrasted sharply with figures like Hillary Clinton, who supported military interventions in Syria and Libya. Trump's anti-war stance resonated with voters weary of prolonged conflicts, helping him gain support in key battleground states.
What are the potential risks of a military conflict with Iran under Trump?
A military conflict with Iran could escalate into a catastrophic war, with estimates suggesting costs of up to $2 trillion in the first three months. Such a conflict would likely cause a massive spike in oil prices, destabilize the Middle East further, and strain U.S. military resources. Trump's previous rhetoric against war raises questions about whether he would prioritize diplomacy or military action in such a crisis.
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