cover of episode The Jackpod: Strategic empathy

The Jackpod: Strategic empathy

2025/3/14
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H
Heidi Hallett
J
Jack Beatty
J
Justin Green
M
Meghna Chakrabarty
Topics
Jack Beatty: 普京入侵乌克兰的主要动机是为了阻止乌克兰加入北约。理解这一动机对于结束战争至关重要。预防性战争在国际关系理论和历史中有其依据,例如中国在朝鲜战争中的介入和美国入侵伊拉克。然而,预防性战争往往得不偿失,如同“害怕死亡而自杀”。历史上,国家在面临权力平衡可能不可逆转地转向不利时,往往会选择发动预防性战争,尽管这种行动常常失败。北约的扩张以及西方对乌克兰加入北约的推动,加剧了俄罗斯的安全担忧,并最终导致了这场战争。 Meghna Chakrabarty: 虽然普京的行动可以被解读为预防性战争,但这并不能完全解释其背后的俄罗斯帝国主义思想。普京认为乌克兰是俄罗斯的一部分,这种观念也深深影响了他的决策。此外,西方在推动乌克兰加入北约的过程中,忽视了乌克兰人民的意愿,他们视俄罗斯为威胁并寻求安全保障。理解俄罗斯的动机固然重要,但也不能忽视其他国家对边境国家安全问题的担忧,例如中国对台湾的态度。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores Barry Posen's analysis of Putin's invasion of Ukraine as a preventive war, drawing parallels to historical examples like the Chinese intervention in Korea and the US invasion of Iraq. It highlights the concept of a 'window of opportunity' and the illegality of preventive wars under international law.
  • Posen's analysis views Putin's invasion as a preventive war to stop Ukraine from joining NATO.
  • Historical examples of preventive wars are given, including the Chinese intervention in Korea and the US invasion of Iraq.
  • Preventive wars are illegal under international law.

Shownotes Transcript

On Point news analyst Jack Beatty looks at the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine from Russian president Vladimir Putin’s perspective, as a ‘preventive war.’