Financial experts recommend keeping 1-3 years of cash reserves to weather potential economic downturns or market corrections. This ensures individuals can cover expenses without needing to withdraw investments during a market slump, which could lock in losses. Inflation is a key concern, as keeping money in cash or safe deposit boxes erodes its value over time.
Pulling out investments during a market downturn locks in losses and prevents recovery when the market rebounds. For example, after the Great Recession, many who withdrew their investments missed the subsequent recovery. Staying invested allows for long-term growth, especially in tax-advantaged retirement accounts.
Inflation erodes the value of cash savings over time. If savings are kept in low-yield accounts or physical cash, their purchasing power decreases as prices rise. For instance, with inflation at 3%, cash earning 1% in a savings account loses 2% of its value annually.
A Trump administration in 2025 could bring economic unpredictability, including potential market volatility, changes to tax policies, and geopolitical tensions. Trump's past policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, boosted markets but also increased inequality. His unpredictability and potential for authoritarian governance add to economic uncertainty.
AI is seen as a major economic disruptor because it could automate 30-60% of jobs, similar to how globalization disrupted manufacturing. This could lead to significant job market shifts, political instability, and economic volatility. While AI offers transformative gains in industries like healthcare, its long-term impact on employment and inequality remains uncertain.
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed under Trump, is set to expire in 2025, potentially raising taxes for many Americans. Key provisions, such as lower individual tax rates and the SALT deduction cap, could sunset, impacting household budgets. While Republicans may seek to renew the cuts, political volatility in Congress adds uncertainty.
The U.S. debt ceiling limits government borrowing, and failure to raise it could lead to default. Unlike many countries, the U.S. has this mechanism, which often results in political brinkmanship and economic uncertainty. A default could increase long-term interest rates and destabilize financial markets.
Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, making it more expensive for consumers to finance purchases. This can reduce spending and slow economic growth. Additionally, higher rates can push the Federal Reserve into tighter monetary policies, further impacting the economy.
Social Security faces funding challenges due to an aging population and insufficient payroll tax revenue. Reforms, such as raising the retirement age or increasing the tax cap, are needed to ensure its sustainability. Privatization, as proposed by some, is controversial and could undermine the program's role as a safety net.
Low-cost index funds provide broad market exposure at minimal expense, making them an accessible investment option for average investors. They reduce the risk of poor stock selection and offer long-term growth potential. For those with limited funds, even small, regular contributions can build wealth over time.
On Point’s 'money ladies' Michelle Singletary and Rana Foroohar are back to start 2025 with frank talk about the macro and micro of the American economy in a new year, and under a new presidential administration.