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cover of episode Has the FIRE Formula Changed? Why 100% Index Funds Isn’t the Answer

Has the FIRE Formula Changed? Why 100% Index Funds Isn’t the Answer

2025/2/14
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BiggerPockets Money Podcast

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Mindy Jensen
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Scott Trench
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Scott Trench: 我在FIRE旅程中积累了十多年的经验,意识到将大部分财富(80%)投资于指数基金并非最佳策略,尤其是在已经达到FIRE目标之后。我目前正处于人生的不同阶段,我的风险承受能力和投资目标与刚开始FIRE旅程时有所不同。考虑到当前市场的高估值和潜在的市场风险,我决定出售40%的指数基金,并将资金重新配置到房地产投资中。我相信房地产投资在市场下行期间的风险更低,并且可以提供稳定的现金流。 我选择房地产投资而非债券投资,是因为我不愿意在市场崩盘的情况下承担债券收益率下降的风险。虽然从长期来看,指数基金的回报率可能更高,但我更看重风险控制和财富的长期保值。 我意识到出售部分指数基金可能会让我对之前在播客中倡导的指数基金投资策略有所背叛,但我认为这是基于当前市场状况的合理决定。我并非盲目跟风,而是经过深思熟虑,并基于我自己的信息和判断做出的决定。 我出售股票的流程非常简单,税务负担也不是主要问题。我将利用房地产投资产生的现金流来支付一些主要的家庭支出,例如孩子的托儿费和房屋税费。 我相信未来30年税率会上升,因此我不害怕现在就实现一些资本收益并缴纳税款。我目前的税率较高,未来也可能保持较高税率,因此现在缴税可能比未来缴税更有利。 Mindy Jensen: 我已经经历过多次市场低迷,并不害怕未来的市场下跌,因此继续将资金保持在股市中。我和Scott处于人生的不同阶段,我们的风险承受能力和投资目标也不同。我距离FIRE目标还有很大差距,因此继续将资金投资于股市。 我不预测市场崩盘,但我希望Scott的预测是错误的,市场会持续上涨。虽然从数学角度来看,我的投资策略可能不如Scott的策略,但我更看重长期投资的稳定性和风险控制。 Bengen的4%规则是基于60%股票和40%债券的投资组合,而不是100%股票投资组合。对于接近FIRE目标的人来说,应该重新评估风险,因为市场下跌可能会导致无法维持FIRE状态。 Scott的决定是基于他自己的情况和对信息的判断,不应盲目模仿。他考虑了多种因素,并利用其房地产经验,将房地产投资视为一种类似债券的稳健投资。 FIRE社区中很多人对市场风险的认知不足,盲目乐观,认为无论价格如何都应该买入股票或指数基金。这种观点是危险的,应该引起重视。

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Shownotes Transcript

Is a 100% index fund) portfolio no longer the FIRE formula? The market has changed, and maybe your portfolio allocation needs to change with it. With index funds at all-time-high prices and price-to-earnings ratios) at an eye-watering 29, you might be feeling a bit worried about whether your FIRE will last or you’ll even make it to FIRE in the first place. You’re not crazy; Scott is feeling the same way, too.

Recently,** Scott decided to make a move** much of the FIRE) community would protest—**he sold 40% of his index fund portfolio **to reallocate to real estate. Why did he do it now, even as a strong index fund believer? On the other hand, why is Mindy sticking with her stock and index fund portfolio, ready to ride out whatever potential market downturn could be coming our way?

Scott explains, in detail,** why real estate is a better choice for him at the moment**, the reason prudent FIRE chasers should question the conventional wisdom of a 100% index fund portfolio, and why his new rental property could act as a hedge against a significant market downturn. **If Scott is selling his index funds, should you? **

In This Episode We Cover

The **historical price-to-earnings **ratios making **index funds **a **riskier bet **

How holding 100% index funds could** throw your FIRE off by a decade**

The** optimal portfolio for retiring early **on the four percent rule 

**Is **real estate) a safer bet than stocks in 2025?

Real estate cash flow) vs. selling stocks for income and why one is much easier to actualize 

And **So **Much More!

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BiggerPockets Money 599 - The Macro Analysis is Clear: Why We Are Reallocating (Away From Stocks) to Real Estate in 2025)

 

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com) and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/money-607)

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