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cover of episode If No One Follows the 4% Rule, What IS the Right Withdrawal Rate?

If No One Follows the 4% Rule, What IS the Right Withdrawal Rate?

2025/5/23
logo of podcast BiggerPockets Money Podcast

BiggerPockets Money Podcast

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
K
Karsten Jesker
M
Mindy Jensen
S
Scott Tretch
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Karsten Jesker: 我认为人们不应该对安全提款率过于激进,尤其是在非常长的时间范围内。即使在最糟糕的时候和很长的时间范围内,也不是完全不能退休,也许只是降低退休标准。过度保守和过度谨慎会带来巨大的机会成本。4%的规则适用于传统退休者,我更多地服务于提前退休或略微提前退休的人。如果你的投资组合不太集中,并且有一些股票债券多元化,那么4%的规则在大多数情况下是有效的。 Scott Tretch: 我坚信4%规则的数学是合理的,研究也支持它。实际上,很少有人会提前退休,除非他们能够从他们的投资组合中产生可收获的、可花费的、也许是应纳税的现金流,并且花费少于或至少大大低于他们的投资组合产生的现金流。 Mindy Jensen: 我应该成为最能适应它的人,因为我做了所有的研究。我没有卖掉我的股票来资助我的生活方式,因为我有一份工作,可以赚到比我生活所需的更多的钱。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the 4% rule's limitations, particularly for early retirees with longer time horizons. Experts discuss the challenges of relying solely on the 4% rule and the importance of considering individual circumstances.

Shownotes Transcript

Most people assume the** “safe withdrawal rate” for retirement (or early retirement) is 4%. But, if that’s the case, why is it SO hard to find anyone who’s gotten to their FIRE number), quit their job, and lived entirely off of the 4% rule)? If the 4% rule is so safe and backed by solid math, why are so few FIRE followers confident enough to actually use it? We don’t know. So we asked Karsten, AKA “Big Ern,”** from** Early Retirement Now **to help answer!

Karsten has done the math, and the 4% rule checks out. But even he, an early retiree, doesn’t follow it. So, instead of the safe withdrawal rate, what’s the comfortable withdrawal rate early retirees should be following to FIRE) on time and with less stress? And with turbulence in today’s stock market, and rising prices (which cause your spending to rise), what does the right FIRE portfolio look like?

Karsten walks through how your portfolio should change as you approach FIRE. He explains why hedging with cash-flowing assets may be a smart move, how much cash to keep on hand, and whether those reserves can actually **protect against **sequence risk). Plus, should you pay off your mortgage on the path to FIRE? Scott and Karsten offer two different perspectives on whether it’s smarter to pay off your mortgage or invest that money instead.

If you’re planning to FIRE, this is info you need to know!

In This Episode We Cover

Is the 4% rule math or myth, and why doesn’t anyone actually trust it enough to use it?

The** optimal FIRE portfolio **for less risk and higher potential returns 

Cash reserves and emergency “buckets” to limit your sequence of returns risk 

Should you pay off your mortgage early or invest) that money instead?

One smart hedge to protect your portfolio against a stock market downturn 

And **So **Much More!

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/money-643)

*Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email *⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected])

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