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Is the 4% Rule Dead?

2025/3/21

BiggerPockets Money Podcast

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript

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Mindy Jensen

Scott Trench

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Mindy Jensen: 我认为4%法则仍然有效，即使在2025年的经济环境下，其数学模型依然成立。但是，许多FIRE运动的参与者并没有完全遵循60/40的股票债券配置，这使得他们面临市场回调的风险。我个人虽然没有完全遵循4%法则，但我的投资组合已经远远超过了退休所需的资金，这让我不必过于担心市场波动。此外，我还从事房地产中介工作，这为我提供了额外的收入来源，让我对未来的财务状况更有信心。对于那些即将退休的人，我建议在退休前3-5年开始调整投资组合，逐渐增加债券投资比例，降低风险。在控制生活成本方面，我认为提前还清抵押贷款、安装太阳能电池板、种植菜园等措施都能有效降低生活成本，从而提高退休资金的安全性。 Scott Trench: 我是4%法则的坚定支持者，其数学模型经历史数据验证，即使在经济萧条时期，也能保证资金不会在30年内耗尽。然而，实际生活中，很少有人完全依赖4%法则退休，大多数人会采取其他措施来保障财务安全。我个人虽然是4%法则的支持者，但我并没有完全遵循60/40的股票债券配置，而是增加了房地产等其他投资。当前股市估值过高，存在风险，市场的不确定性导致投资者担忧。许多FIRE社区成员过度依赖股票投资，缺乏债券配置，这使得他们面临市场回调的风险。为了降低风险，我将部分资产转移到房地产、私人贷款和现金等其他投资领域。除了4%法则，还可以通过其他投资方式来降低风险，例如房地产、私人贷款、增加现金储备、创办副业等。 4%法则假设退休者不会在市场低迷时减少开支或增加其他收入，这在实际中并不总是成立。控制生活成本、增加额外收入等措施也能提高退休资金的安全性。

Deep Dive

Chapters

This chapter introduces the 4% rule, a retirement planning guideline suggesting withdrawing 4% of your portfolio annually. The discussion covers its historical performance, even during economic downturns, and recent updates suggesting higher withdrawal rates. However, it also highlights the paradox that few have truly retired using only this rule.

The 4% rule, based on historical data, suggests a portfolio can sustain 4% annual withdrawals for 30 years.
Recent research suggests the possibility of a 5% withdrawal rate.
Few people rely solely on the 4% rule for retirement; most have additional income sources or assets.

Shownotes Transcript

Is the 4% rule) dead? Most FIRE-chasers are using this retirement rule completely wrong, and it could cost them their financial freedom. With stock prices falling and many Americans fearing another recession), now is the time to tighten up your retirement portfolio and ensure you can survive if stock prices correct or crash. If you get this wrong, you could delay your FIRE for years or have to go back to work mid-retirement.

The 4% rule is one of the most bulletproof retirement formulas. It’s simple: Build a portfolio from which you can comfortably withdraw 4% annually. Need $40,000 per year to live? Your FIRE) number is $1,000,000. Need $100,000 per year? Then you’re looking at $2,500,000. This math has been checked, double-checked, and triple-checked to withstand even the greatest economic depressions. However, most people have their portfolio set up WRONG, and it could put them at significant risk.

So, how do you ENSURE you can retire (early) with the 4% rule? What hedges should you make in your portfolio so your wealth stays afloat even as the economic tide starts to turn? What are Scott and Mindy doing now to prepare for a rocky stock market? Don’t miss this one—it could cost you your FIRE!

In This Episode We Cover

The **4% rule explained **and whether it still works in 2025 and during market downturns

Why your FIRE portfolio) is WRONG, and it could be at massive risk right now

How to prepare for an economic downturn to ensure you stay FIREd or on the path to FIRE

What Scott is selling) and buying right now to protect his wealth (will his strategy work?)

Alternatives to the 4% rule that will protect your retirement portfolio even during the greatest of depressions

And **So **Much More!

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