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cover of episode The 4% “Rule” is Wrong for FIRE—Here’s a Better Alternative

The 4% “Rule” is Wrong for FIRE—Here’s a Better Alternative

2025/5/6
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BiggerPockets Money Podcast

AI Deep Dive Transcript
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M
Mindy Jensen
S
Scott Trench
T
Tyler Gardner
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Tyler Gardner: 我对于4%规则的看法是,它不应被视为一个严格的规则,而应该是一个灵活的指导方针。4%规则忽略了人们的动态需求和市场波动。在退休初期,保守的取款策略至关重要,避免因市场下跌导致的资金链断裂风险。建议在退休初期准备两年的生活费现金储备,这可以降低市场波动带来的风险,并给予投资更多自由度。拥有两年的现金储备,可以让人们在投资其余资金时更有信心,不必过于担心市场下跌带来的风险。对于资产规模较小的人来说,市场下跌带来的序列风险非常重要,而对于资产规模较大的人来说,影响相对较小。两年的安全边际通常足够,但具体取决于个人的风险承受能力。平衡工作时间与储蓄之间的关系是一个非常个性化的决定,没有标准答案。许多接近退休或刚退休的人都会纠结于“再工作一年”的问题,因为工作是已知数,而退休是未知数。“再工作一年”的思维模式可能会让人无限期地推迟退休,因为未知的风险总是大于已知的辛苦。考虑到税收、医疗保健和意外支出等因素,建议退休储蓄至少达到所需金额的两倍。退休投资组合的配置应取决于投资目标,如果目标是保值,则可以选择低风险的固定收益产品;如果目标是保值增值,则可以选择增长型资产。如果债券收益率达到15%,那么我会毫不犹豫地将全部资产投入债券。为了应对通货膨胀,退休投资组合中需要包含一些增长型资产。个人理想的投资组合配置比例可能为90%增长型资产和10%固定收益产品,但这取决于个人的风险承受能力和投资目标。目标日期退休基金对于那些希望设定目标并忘记投资的人来说是一个不错的选择,但它也存在局限性,因为其风险等级是基于年龄而非个人情况而定的。房地产投资是值得考虑的,因为它可以作为一种税收避风港,并可能产生收入,而且与股票和债券的关联性较低。房地产投资是一种重要的资产类别,而非仅仅是替代投资。在规划FIRE时,应该考虑个人技能的提升和持续收入的获取,将其作为投资组合之外的额外保障。4%规则过于保守,应该根据个人情况和风险承受能力灵活调整。 Mindy Jensen: 许多FIRE追随者盲目地遵循4%规则,而没有根据自身情况进行调整。FIRE的本质是永久脱离工作,因此人们对4%规则和各种风险规避措施如此重视。许多人实际上并没有完全依赖于投资组合来维持生活,而是会采取一些额外的措施,例如兼职工作或其他收入来源。在追求FIRE的过程中,不必等到达到FIRE目标才换工作,可以提前换到更令人满意但薪水较低的工作。一旦决定永久离开职场,技能就会开始逐渐衰退。 Scott Trench: FIRE社区对投资组合理论的理解和应用存在偏差,许多人忽略了相关的学术研究。许多人忽略了投资组合理论,甚至不理解它。很多人盲目地遵循所谓的“100%股票投资组合”策略,而没有考虑到市场波动和风险。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

For decades, the 4% rule) has been the calculation every FIRE chaser has used to determine when they can** retire early)—risk-free**. The math is simple: have a portfolio big enough to withdraw 4% per year to fund your lifestyle. But there’s one BIG problem with the 4% rule that nobody is talking about—a problem that could force you to work longer,** ruin your retirement **lifestyle, and put your portfolio in jeopardy if you don’t plan carefully. Tyler Gardner, former portfolio manager and financial advisor, is back on the show to share why much of **the FIRE community may be wrong **about this “rule.”

Scared of not having enough to retire, retiring during a market crash, or being forced to be frugal once you leave the workforce? That’s precisely what we’re talking about in today’s episode. The 4% rule has become untouchable within the FIRE movement), but its hard-and-fast downsides may lead to your FIRE’s demise. 

Tyler shares what he thinks is** the ultimate FIRE portfolio allocation**, why he’s way more bullish on stocks and index funds than bonds, EVEN during retirement, and why target date retirement funds—often scoffed at—can actually help** protect your portfolio** once you FIRE. If you’re planning on retiring early with the 4% rule, think again. All of us have our doubts, and we’re sharing them today. 

In This Episode We Cover

Why** the 4% “rule” is WRONG** for most FIRE chasers, and why withdrawing only 4% could be a mistake 

The** new (updated!) **FIRE number) that most people should be chasing 

Hate your job)** **and want to retire early? Here’s why you should find a better career (NOT quit) instead 

The** ultimate FIRE portfolio allocation** and why a target date retirement fund actually makes sense for many 

And **So **Much More!

Links from the Show

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Your Money Guide on the Side Podcast)

Want to FIRE in 2025? How to Prepare for Early Retirement w/Emma von Weise)

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(00:00) Intro (02:05) Is the 4% Rule Wrong?(06:05) This Saves Your FIRE (10:09) “One More Year” Syndrome(14:33) Healthcare in Early Retirement(16:34) Ultimate FIRE Portfolio Allocation(24:29) Include Real Estate?(29:49) Target Date Retirement Funds(36:25) Don’t Quit Working? (54:30) Find a Job You LOVE(57:02) Connect with Tyler!(58:30) FIRE Chasers Are Wrong!

Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠) and ⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/money-637)

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