Banana Zone Alert? Bitcoin Reclaims $100K While ETH Leads Alts | REKT Vision
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please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much. We're back, and OSF is back with me. Looking good, actually, today. I know you've been boxing this morning, but you still look fresh. You look like a man who's had a good week. Yeah, luckily this show's at this time, because if it was at a few hours earlier, my nose was very big from getting punched there, so...

The swelling has gone down. I don't need an ice pack on stage. No, you look good. You look good, man. Thank you. And I thought everyone does feel good at the moment. Crypto has had another great week. We spoke about this last week that, you know, we were trending, I think, around 95k last week, it was. And I thought we'd hang out there for a little bit longer. But it feels as though you can't hold down Bitcoin for that long. Bitcoin rallied up.

all the way through 100k yesterday, it's now hanging out around 102, 103k. And you've seen a little bit of just whisper at this moment, but a bit of an altcoin season has happened at least over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance have been hanging out at multi-year highs. It was around 65.5%, 66%. And then what we saw is

drumroll was a rally in ETH and a pretty monumental one. ETH went from trading a month ago at $1,450 to today trading at $2,300. Huge move in ETH this week. Normally ETH rallies have been met with kind of tops. Like it's only a bit of a risky moment. This time it kind of led and it's continued to be pretty strong. That's definitely going to be the number one topic today.

We are finally going to have to talk about whether this is now Eve's time. And I, you know, I'm less... I've changed my tone a little bit. Oh, wow. We can get into it. But yeah, definitely a good week. Eve bled. Then you saw a big move in a bunch of...

Firstly, it was ETH meme coins, but then more broadly, a bunch of other meme coins. Some of the class of 2024 meme coins had a big run even today. General frothiness, AI agents...

you couldn't even talk about them a couple months ago. Now they're back up to $11 billion as a sector. So actually up, I think even on the year now as a sector that was led by a bit, big rallies in virtuals, fart coin, um, and I 16 Z had been nice run. It's been, it's been a big, big move in a bunch of the AI coins, um,

And just general, we are so back vibes. We've definitely outperformed pretty much versus everything else, every other major asset class this week. How are you feeling this week, Osef? I know you're positioned well, like we both are actually. Yeah, good. I mean, I've owned a lot of risk and I didn't take anything off on that first post-tariff pump. Just felt like we would have a bigger move higher and

I don't think we've seen it. We're starting to see it. And that chart that Julian and Raoul keeps posting of the Bitcoin price overlaid with the global liquidity is once again coming to fruition. And I think while it seems like there's more upside there, I think people will still have more hope and belief that there is more room to run here. So my view personally...

is I think we keep going. Um, I've mentioned a few times, um, this concept of, uh, the famous concept of a lovely summer of risk and we're, um, we're well on our way to it, I think. And so, um, my view is, I think we get to like, um, we go through new all-time highs on Bitcoin. I think we will see like 120, 130 K levels this summer. And I also believe that

in the alt season thesis. Now, I don't necessarily believe that Bitcoin dominance is falling through the floor. That's not my view, but I do think that Bitcoin dominance maybe stabilizes here. Maybe we lose a little bit, maybe we drop back under 60-ish at some point. I think it will still remain relatively elevated in the context of a one or two year chart. But I do think you will start to see some big performance in other coins, whether it's alt coins, meme coins, AI coins, whatever it is. I think all this stuff

is going to potentially move a lot, lot higher. And we're starting to see it already. Like, you know, many of these coins are up three to 400% off their lows, off the low prints of April, but yet they're still down 60 or 70% from the highs.

And I'm not saying every single thing will return back to all time high. And I think if you've been in this space long enough, you know, that can often be a fool's game to always chase that. But I do think there's still a lot of upside in many, many altcoins and meme coins. I feel more...

I feel warmer towards meme coins now than I did, you know, I've sort of been staying away from them for most of this year, but I kind of, in the last month or so, we spoke about fart coin, et cetera. I do feel like you can, that market beta for meme coins is back in the right direction. And I think the,

the casino crowd will always seem to still be punting meme coins when the market rallies. So I do like that as a sector, but you just have to be selective. So for me, I'm still bullish. I think as long as we are still tracking that global liquidity chart and while that still goes higher, it shows to me that there's more room to go higher on Bitcoin. And on the fundamental side, I think there are some positive catalysts. I think we still haven't really seen the full impact or power of Bitcoin reserve stuff. You know, it's been, you know, have been almost, um,

six months since that task force started coming up towards the summer. And I think we'll start to hear back some results, some findings, some potential action points, maybe some of the stuff that we were hoping people were overexcited for in January after the six-month period, but now people have forgotten about it. Maybe some of that stuff can start to come to fruition or some more noise about it hits the market. So I think that's a potential positive thing in the background. And as we've spoken about many times on the show with regard to tariffs, I think for me,

Hi, Raoul here.

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But I do think like with Russia, Ukraine and other things, eventually markets become desensitized to it until, um, you know, until maybe it has a big impact on inflation and whatnot. And it starts showing through in the numbers, which are very delayed and lagged and takes time to see for that to show through. So, um, my view is like, um,

Still very constructive, still very bullish. I did take a little bit of profits today just to capture something. I think in my head, I was like, if Bitcoin gets back to 100K, I would take a little bit off. So I stuck to that rule, but I'm still pretty much risk on. And I've been looking at other...

potential coins to buy mainly in the meme coin land i think on stuff where we're still stuff where it's like down 70 or 80 percent from highs and then you the question you're asking yourself is will it bounce back but something with a chart like that but it's also doing a lot of volume it's doing a lot of volume and it's down 80 percent from highs that to me tells me it has a chance to uh bounce back and i see you smiling because um which which coins i'm talking about

Let's talk about maybe the big movement of the week in pages. So Bitcoin has had a great week, but it normally has a good week. The big move has been ETH. ETH had an upgrade, a Hector upgrade, in the middle of the week, which had been spoken about, but ETH does a number of upgrades. But this one

I think the big one is to see the results. And the big result has been that ETH suddenly has gone deflationary again. It's gone from having a small inflation, I think of around 1% to 2%, to suddenly being deflationary. And this narrative of ultrasound money has slightly returned, which I think is... That's what caused ETH to move. No doubt in my mind that suddenly...

ETH being viewed as kind of a store of value again, potentially even deflationary, is a big deal. And you saw ETH go from just put in success, very aggressive candles. It's selling off a little bit right now, but it still looks strong to me. 2,300 right now. It's up 13% today. It was up similarly yesterday and even the day before that. So it's put in like three back-to-back 10-plus candles since Pectra.

which I think is something to pay attention to. We talk about stuff week to week, and I was lucky in that I caught Mog and Pepe this week on that, and I wasn't even really paying attention to the Pectodruct until after it happened, and I was like, oh, okay, this could change. And then I still had the Mog and Pepe, and obviously Rek had a big move this week as well, which are all ETH coins.

But I do think for the first time in a while, that's an interesting narrative. That's an interesting narrative because the merge obviously was like this horrific situation where ETH went inflationary again. It wasn't gaining on the fees and everyone was like, well, it doesn't look good on a burn metric. It doesn't even look good on a revenue generation metric. But now if it goes deflationary again, the L1,

Is this the time to get into the ETH and ETH beta here? That's what I would say. Like, yeah, obviously it's bounced up. I'm not saying part of that trade hasn't happened. It was trading at last week when we did this show. It was, looks like it was around 1870, 1850 area. And now it's at 2200, 2290. So it's moved 20%, 25%.

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I'm starting to think that this could be it. Like if he's going to have a run, this is it. Because it's a pretty big change in narrative. And what I have done this week, because I like to update the whole show, I have reduced today, actually, mainly, all or a large bit of my major Solana memes. So I reduced all my fart coin. I reduced my Pengu. I reduced, apart from the stuff that we're involved in, but I reduced...

a lot and I reduced my soul long as well and I have gone long well I've actually paid off a lot of positions today but on this dip I am going to buy ETH FA MOG REX what do you think of that? I like it I think yeah I think that's very interesting I think I think with ETH I always felt like for me it was like

1500 600 700 1800 like surely this is just a really cheap level for eth and it was less about like will eth ever go up again for me but more about can eth relatively outperform other ecosystems and other coins and and also eth eth eth memes i guess as well or eth beta um you're right like this whole deep base reality i think is a pretty big one for it and

My opinion is this kind of goes one of two ways. One way is like all the .eths start saying now's our time, you know, we've been waiting for this moment, etc. And then this is it. And

um then nothing happens or you have the narrative that everyone's like oh shit this is actually really cheap and it's underperformed for the best part of a year now or best part of six months let's say like fuck this should be like twice as high as it is and the price action today i think tells you that the market view on it is starting to change like a 13 candle on eath is no joke that's a big move it's a big single day move and um

I think if it can sustain this performance and to be honest with you, I think a lot of it, a lot of the, the kind of sentiment around ETH seems to, seems to be stemmed or pegged towards what the ETH foundation does and, you know, and that kind of stuff as well. If those guys can not fuck it up, I do think, I do think this narrative can turn and people can kind of get behind it a bit more. And yeah, like if you look at that move and Pepe was up by 50%,

I don't know. Like, Mog is up, what, 150% in the last

two weeks or so. Rekt is up like 350% in the last couple of weeks or so. You are seeing some of these ETH beta coins also move up aggressively and they still have a lot to move. Like Pepe's $5 billion market cap. Mog is like $400 million market cap. That went to $1.5 billion. Rekt is just a $60 million market cap. That was at $120 or so before. These are still coins, I think, with a lot of upside. So

that are clearly going to benefit from this eth tailwind because that's the way they're performing so i think it's a good bet you know i think it's i think it's one of those things where it's like yeah you had a bit of a move here and maybe just fade to get a move back down and we're all just like oh we hate eth but you only had a bit of a move but you only really had a small move in the grand scheme of things and in the context of like what eth has done and the ecosystem has done in the last six months so i do i like that trade and i have a lot of exposure to eth

and ETH beta as well at the moment. And I think that's a good punt. I think it's a good risk. Now that stuff's moved a lot and you're still constructive in the market and trying to figure out where to deploy risk, a hard thing to do is how do I find things with good upside downside where my downside is still relatively capped but it's still a very convex trade. And I do think

that falls into that bucket. I do think ETH falls into the convex trade bucket. It's not without risk and it's not without PTSD, but you have to have those elements for it to have the upside, if that makes sense. So I like it. I think that's smart. And I think all those three beta coins, like Kepe hit, what, 11, 12 bills last time, I think. These things can move up a lot and they can move very quickly.

The reason why I've done this and the reason why I'm thinking like this is because last, every single other time we've talked about ETH rallying, it has been, it looks cheap, right? It looks cheap and it's underperformed. But like there were so many fundamental issues there about ETH being a currency, in my opinion. And now it's like,

there's actually a reason that it's rallied. There's a reason that it's rallied, which I think is an important thing here. I think if you're just buying it because it looks cheap, we saw a lot of those with wicks high and then just sold straight back down. But here, it just feels like something may have changed. So I'm ready to get hurt again. I'm ready to be hurt again.

I, I obviously, to be clear here, I am still mainly Bitcoin, but the, I had, as you know, on this show, I had bought a number of more risky things. Kind of when Bitcoin was at 78 to 85 K and a lot of, none of those really were ETH pizza. None of those. So,

Now, I personally think we put a little bit of a top today, like just with some of the price action on some of the coins, it just feels a little bit like, oh yeah, people are just jumping it. It was a bit grabby, I would say this morning. It just felt a little bit like you needed to wake up and buy something. And I've learned over time that when that happens, it's normally a good time to just chill. But if we dip, which I think we could on a number of different coins here,

I will be buying ETH beta. And I think this, what do you think that means though for like Sol? If some of the left curve stuff and starts running on ETH and the L1s. Yeah. If ETH rallies, Sol rallies too? Or do you think now we're in this sort of like period where that could change? I think they can both rally together still. You may see Sol ETH go lower.

But in terms of meme coins, casinos, DJing kind of stuff, it's hard to... People are literally gambling there with $1 on Sol and you can't do that on ETH. So that's still something that's going to exist. But I do think people do like the way that ETH coins can often be a bit more controlled in volatility, controlled in supply, etc.

generally better stronger holder base and that kind of stuff i do think larger wallets are attracted to those kind of mechanics and dynamics um and in my opinion that will drive more capital into some of these youth um tokens i think um especially stuff which is proven that can like bounce back um actually bounce back after a big sell-off and not just get stuck in the mud basically yeah yeah exactly

So, and that's what we've basically seen. A lot more of the established memes have rallied first here. Established coins kind of from last year have done way better than newer coins this cycle, which I think points to the fact that we haven't had that many new entrants into the market over the last few weeks. It's kind of just been us trading amongst each other. And it's kind of the coins which CT likes the most or like crypto...

core users perhaps are drawn to at least in the meme coin space and I think that's probably the same for some of the other spaces other subsectors as well but it does feel as though this isn't got it's weird to see Bitcoin 103k and I don't think there's been that many new buyers recently we saw a lot of institutional onboarding but not really that many retailers not here you can feel it it's not here

Yeah, I agree. It's not retail here. I think there's a lot of institutional buying. I think it's all of us. People always assume, oh, well, all of CT has lost money and who's there to buy it back? But I do think a large amount of CT, whether you realize it or not,

have real jobs and have real salaries and real income and get paid bonuses and all that kind of stuff like there's a lot of tradfi people within crypto who are part of ct that have good income so like people do have money to spend even if they've lost money in the past because they're earning income from other sources from uh which aren't just like crypto trading so um

I feel like it's contained within the crypto community, but the crypto community does have the most propensity to spend, I think. But it's going to be interesting to see what happens from here, I think, because I do feel like a lot of people got caught with their pants down a little bit by selling or being too bearish. I think people were very quick to fade moves higher, just like PTSD. And...

This feels like the type of move where I'm not a chartist, but if you look at charts, they're all sort of like breakout moves, if that makes sense. It looks like the start of a breakout on many coins. So I think that typically does attract a lot of capital and give people confidence to buy here. I mean, if I had no exposure to the market now, would I be buying right now?

I don't know, to be honest with you. I think I probably still would be. I think I'd probably get a bit of risk on now and then wait for a dip to add more. And that, to me, tells me that I think we can keep going higher. It's not, it doesn't yet feel frothy to me, is what I'm trying to say. It doesn't yet feel frothy. Maybe locally, sure. But like, it's not, this isn't like what it was in January, for example. So I just gave you a detail of London.

um yeah you know my bitcoin i've rotated my more risky stuff to eth style beta um was kind of doing that already uh the last few days um and then now i might be a bit more conscious about it but what what did you do yeah so um you know i obviously i spoke about buying a few ai coins um

a few weeks ago and which they're up decently I don't think they're the best performers in the market but they're still up a lot off the lows I've kind of kept some of them monetized some of them I did buy I did buy peanut yesterday which I think is a really interesting one so I think you had some big movers in coins that have moved off the lows that people were familiar with from like that

2024 Q4 era of meme coins. So like, Fartcoin is up massively off the lows. Popcat is up massively off the lows. If anyone follows BonkGuy on Twitter, they should definitely... I think we had him on the show, actually, didn't we? They should definitely... They should definitely share because he's had some pretty good calls. We haven't had BonkGuy, I don't think. Not yet. Not BonkGuy, sorry. We had...

We have Natchez, but we can't go on. You are right. It makes them up. But I think he's a really good follow. And I think he's had some really good calls on buying things at the stone cold lows that have moved up crazy amounts on leverage. So I think this is an interesting trade, this peanut thing, because you're trying to figure out, right? Lots of coins are down 90%. What will bounce back?

if it's doing zero volume, the chances are it's probably not going to bounce back because no one's buying it. Or you have to hope some capital comes in for it to bounce back. If it's doing a lot of volume and starting to recover, then it has a good chance of returning. And with this one,

It's done a billion dollars of spot volume in the last 24 hours, which is insane. It's like complete madness. Now that's probably a market maker. There's probably something going on there. Like it's not just like a billion dollars of organic volume. But to me, that's a sign that like something or someone is behind this. And I think

This is an example for me where it's like, people might be like, oh, peanut, the squirrel, that's such an old story. Like who cares about that now? It's just some random dead animal, which was like from last year. That's completely irrelevant. Like whatever the underlying token is, is irrelevant. I'm just talking about what's going on in the huge surge in volume and chart. If he's, if he's flipped to the one year chart on that, um,

This was the famous coin. Just give some context. This was the famous coin that came out probably a day after Trump came into office or the day before, I think it was. And then it was touted by, you know, that was a popular meme around the election. It then got listed on Coinbase, I think Spot. It got listed on Binance for Spot. Went to $2.5 billion. And then went down ever since.

Yeah. So I think, I think that's a good punt for like a near term trade where I just see something that's still down, whatever it is, 90%, but is randomly doing a billion dollars of volume. To me, that's always a good sign and it has listings on Coinbase, et cetera. So, um, I think that's an interesting one to keep an eye on that. So, so I kind of bought a bunch of that yesterday as a, as a bit of a punt. Um,

My answer to that is that when this, because you told me to buy some and I bought some too, but when this started rallying, I was like, this is the sign that it's a bit frothy. Because when it's just like something's going on, like the memes, not really relevant, but just something's going on and people are reaching for that and they're like all in.

I normally get a little bit worried because I'm like, oh, okay, we're at that bit of the market where it doesn't even matter what you buy. It's just buy because something might be going on. That was, that's what made me pause. I sold quite a few things. Hey man, buy this coin. Yes.

It's almost irrespective of the price of Peanut, right? Peanut could go to like 700 million now. But if it does, it kind of tells me that we're towards... We're not in the first innings. That's basically what I would say if that's happened. It's a fair comment. It's definitely a fair comment. For me, I just think we've seen... A trend that we're seeing is some of these coins from last year, which are down massively, start to rebound. And...

you may have missed some of the fart coin move or you may have missed mudeng is up 200% you may have missed some of these moves so my thing is which ones are out there that haven't moved or are starting to move and this is one of them but when you see that volume number to put into context where does this even rank it's one of the highest volume meme coins at the moment right if not the highest it's definitely up there

I just want to take a step back and talk about our... We go from talking about macro for like a week, and we said now we can go in and say the best thing to own right now is peanut with some random meme. Not the best thing to own, but a good punt is the way I view it. And a billion dollars of pubs as well. Which is... Given Pepe's done a billion, that's not a small amount. Yeah.

I think this is not a bad, like you said, there's some other coins that move like this. The 2024 crop of memes, Mudang had a big move, Chillguy is up like 6x from the low, and now Peanut is as well. So this isn't just by itself, but it is true that the market is looking for things to pump. Now, do I think that these sort of trades are often towards the end of

like a structured structural rally sometimes sometimes when it's just like this it can be but and I don't love the other thing I don't love is like zooming out on a meme coin chart because I actually don't think I think that is often how people get wrecked always just pay attention to where Bitcoin is

So like Bitcoin is $103,000. So like you have to assume that that's a decent move. And the market will not care where this, where peanut is in relation to its all-time high. It will care where Bitcoin is in relation to its all-time high. And I just think the Bitcoin, I guess I've been expecting it to slow down for a little bit here, but I do think that maybe it will slow down a little bit. So yeah.

Yeah, this weekend, just zooming back onto our macro rather than peanut hat, we've obviously had a lot of good sentiment around the trade deals. It's been a mixed week, though, I think, for news around crypto, if I'm honest. Crypto appears to be drifting away from popular support in the US Senate and House, mainly because there's just been some questions about Trump and the Trump family personally,

ingratiating themselves with crypto. And that has meant that regulation looks like it's going to be more difficult to pass. So today you saw, for example, the main stablecoin bill didn't pass the Senate. There's been a lot of talk about it's going to be much more difficult to get some of that regulation through. And then the markets are kind of flattish today, broadly and macro. There is some, there was a UK trade deal which was done, which I think was better for the UK than it was maybe for the US. And then

There's some talk about the US and China meeting this weekend, although I really doubt anything will come from that, other than potentially they reduce tariffs into that meeting as a form of goodwill, of which it's kind of expected that they may reduce into like 80%. But I just, I get the feeling that we have a bit of a wobble this weekend, but that's

But I think you're meant to buy Heath Beater on the dip, basically. So I've taken some profits. Hopefully it doesn't keep on ripping in my face. Last time I did this, you told me to get back in and I did. This time you're telling me... Actually, you saw a little bit right now. I took a little bit of risk off today for the first time since January.

um having bought risk in you know like march april time so it did take a little bit off today but i you know it's a very small amount i still feel like i'm very much risk on here um but i just think it's one of those i was we were chatting about this earlier today you have you have times when you're trading and you're sort of like fading the strength and buying it when it goes lower again you're trying to multiply your positions and

Then you just have these periods where things just go up every day or every week. They just keep going up and up. Then you get to price discovery and then it's like, oh, well, how much higher can it go? Until eventually it starts to feel frothy. And contrary to your feeling on the innings and that kind of stuff, I still feel like we're kind of early in this move. And again, I think the global liquidity chart gives me confidence on that. I think the momentum feels like

it's still there too and i think still things are still like off meaningful amount off high so to me it feels like i'm i'm what i don't have like amazing confidence to say this is the time where things are going to keep going up and up and up and up but the way i look at it is like oh cool i could sell i don't think the downside from here is more than 20 or 30 percent and that's a big number i don't even think it's that i think maybe it's like 10 percent

So it's like, what would I rather? Would I rather try and save myself that 10% and buy back in? Do I just eat that 10% and hold on? Because I don't want to be in a position where I sell a material amount of risk, doesn't drop 10%, and then it goes up a lot. And then I'm just going to be like, fuck, what do I do now? I don't want to be in that position.

And that position is always worse than even losing money. Which is what the whole move has felt like, right? Although we have said, when we were risking up and said this could be the breakout. It felt as though that was not the case around crypto. This move has felt like people desperate to put on risk as it's gone higher and waiting for a pullback. And the pullback has been very shallow recently.

Kind of since last month around this time, you know, we were at 75 K a month ago today. It looks like that's crazy. So we're about 76. Yeah.

And it just has been a very consistent rally all the way up. And I agree with that. And like I said, Bitcoin is easily my biggest bag and I have not sold any of that. It's more just the more frothy stuff. And I think the reason for that, I've just rotated it more into ETH. Or my plan is to rotate it more into ETH and out of some of this Solana stuff. Is there...

Yeah, like what do you think about the broader market though here? Like do you think, you've obviously got involved in stocks a bit more recently as well, and they've bounced, but they're not bouncing maybe as hard. Are you, they've had a decent bounce. They've had a decent, I'm not saying they haven't. Which of you? I mean, that's the first time I bought stocks in about four years or something. And just to be clear, the only reason why, I'm a bit annoyed about it actually, because the only reason why I bought stocks was I couldn't,

send money to I couldn't send fiat to my exchange accounts to buy crypto I couldn't send a material amount and um I was like I just need to get some risk on today otherwise um

you know otherwise i'm gonna miss this move so i end up having to like put money into some random managed equity fund which is the only thing i could get the risk on like i said like same day basically um but it's not it's not okay i mean it's like for the equity market i think that's up maybe like the stuff that i bought was up maybe like 15 or 16 percent from when i bought it but obviously like nowhere near as much as crypto's up so i'm a bit frustrated by that but um i do think um

I think the overall market got to a level that was like really exciting to buy because I think the medium term trend on risk assets here is still a lot, lot higher. And I think just have some like, for me, most geopolitical tension is

is always they always create buying opportunities if they're not real economic reasons for us to sell off they're more just sort of like fear reasons for us to sell off just top down I know tariffs are a bit different because like if you do have these massive tariffs that get fully implemented that is going to

have a big impact on inflation. Powell has made his stance very clear and that will put the US into a tricky spot. And I do think there are real cases right now where tariffs are high and it's costing people a lot of money to import stuff. But in these situations, I do believe people just immediately jump to the worst case scenario or like bad conclusions. It's kind of like Brexit. Everyone like,

panicked when Brexit happened and they were like oh actually it's not that bad or everyone panicked the first time Trump got the first time Trump got elected and they were like oh actually it's not that bad and I still feel like even if some tariffs are implemented and if tariffs are up high it's not going to be that bad I think and do you remember Brexit? do you remember? I marked my entire book down a lot and then I started were you in London at that time? we were in London yeah it was my last year in London yeah

I got told off by Blue Bay Asset Management for calling my bonds too low. Because I was sending out like 20 point wide markets on like Iceland and like Matalan. You got in and you called the whole market down 50% on your own positions. Where I was long. So like I lost, like I marked my book down massively.

They were the only runs that got sent out. And then, and then. So yeah. A PM called the desk and told the sales guy to tell me to stop sending out stupid markets. I was like, trade all Titan. Apparently it wasn't, it wasn't a good thing to do. Been like that. Yeah. And then there was Trump as well. That, that same year was, it was too early. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, it did feel a lot like that a few weeks ago, obviously. And we said that at the time. I've said throughout that whole period, I'm not as bullish on stocks, though. I do think there's a long-term impact to some of the stuff that's happening here. I don't think it's just like buy markets because of that. But I think crypto is one of the ones that will really outperform in that world. And gold has been the other one.

And interestingly, gold is still kind of hanging out around that all-time high level, even while crypto is kind of caught up. And that was the trade. When gold moved and then just started flatlining, the trade really was to buy crypto. And everyone was like, oh, why isn't it caught up? And then it's just caught up, you know, straight away it's caught back up now. So that was the trade. Here, I am, you know, if we were...

saying definitely you want to own it in that 78 to 85k range and particularly towards the low end we were saying that I think now is the time where I am more wary of the more risky stuff but I'm just going to I just think a good risk reward now is maybe ETH just because of that change in narrative

hurt me again hurt me again it's actually gone down since the since the show started imagine if imagine if it just went down not as much as peanut peanut's going back down to zero mate handle change handle change or peanut we'll delete that bit of the pod um it seems like everything's coming off a little bit here yeah yeah it would back to one or two yeah it feels feels like that's what I'm saying um

Yeah, like in terms of meme coins, you think you're following volume. What about NFTs? That's been the other one that if ETH comes back, punks back above 100k floor. And maybe we should have a little bit of a sector here about NFT meets meme coins. The Rekt was easily one of the best performers over the last two weeks. You've obviously...

been leading that. Do you maybe want to talk a little bit about what's been going on there? I had somebody in my DMs being like, I had no idea you guys were even involved in this. And it feels like something that we should talk about. Yeah, I think we've been working on Wrecked and Wrecked Drinks. We use the IP from our NFT project to make a brand and create flavoured sparkling water. And we have been selling our drinks in one-off limited drops. So we sold...

We did a drop in October, which was about 223,000 cans. And we sold out that entire supply in 48 hours, under 48 hours. And we did our next drop on Wednesday, which was a collaboration with Abstract, which is an L2 company.

built for consumer crypto and that was a similar amount of drinks that was a 223 000 cans which we sold out in 40 minutes um which is well well well beyond our expectations i think we were on some podcasts that day actually when michael and i was saying if we can sell out in under 24 hours that would be like an amazing result i don't know if we can do that and we sold out in 40 minutes so um

With these purchases, last time people bought drinks, they were able to claim some Rectcoin afterwards and they made money on that. With this one, people were able to earn Rect points and abstract XP as well. So they're incentivized, but I think it does show, kind of just shows the appetite, I think, for the product and also for the reward system. And I think it's like a novel way for consumer crypto to

to have a place in like a traditional industry um like the amount of drinks we've sold in a short space of time is very very large by the standards of a traditional beverage company um especially one that's just started so it's something that would not have been possible without being in crypto like if i started a drinks company tomorrow definitely wouldn't be possible but yeah the rep token is up like something like 350 off the lows but still down

about 60% off the highs. And for me, that's just like, you know, the Rekt coin itself, it doesn't own the IP to Rekt. It doesn't earn the revenues that we make at Rekt Brands. It has no real like economic sort of connection to it. But I think the way that this market trades is on attention. It is on sentiment. And my belief is if we do really well and make massive drink sales and that company,

really large, then I think how does someone express that as a trade? How does someone get involved? The only thing you can really do is buy a rect coin. So that's my view on that. And we've also even, something that I really like that people have started doing recently is, you know, corporates buying Bitcoin and obviously you've had Tesla and, you know,

uh gamestop announcing it and canter yeah announcing it and i do i believe that many corporates will have some crypto and bitcoin on their balance sheet and corporates also buy back their own stock so we actually acquired some retcoin in the open market as well with kind of like a similar view and that i think is an interesting thing as well it's definitely triple or quadrupling down on yourself but um

I'm very excited for the stuff that we have coming this year. I mean, next month even, like a lot more things coming. And our goal is like, can we sell a million drinks within the space of 12 months? That's what Red Bull did in their first 12 months. And we're about 44% of the way there with six months to go. So there's a chance. It won't be easy, but I do think there's a good chance. And that is the quick two minutes on what's going on with Wrecked.

So potentially could sell a million cans this year. We're already halfway there? About half, just under halfway there, yeah. Which would match Red Bull in its first year. And the Corning has got some sort of feedback loop to that via...

Buy bags and got a whole community behind it from NFTs. And the product seems to be well-received, right? It's a good drink, yeah. Highly, well, they're sold out now, but I actually think it's a good drink. It's quite tasty. I drink them a lot myself. Okay. All right. And what about broader NFTs then? Because that's been something that if ETH has a run, is ETH beta...

NFTs there. We've seen Xcopy. I don't know if you've seen, but Grifters. Grifters just has like a good baseline for Xcopy right now. They're at 20 ETH floor. What's at 20 ETH floor? Wow. Well, 20 ETH floor and they are obviously ETH is now at 2,000

200 or 2,300. So do you think, and they haven't, a lot of these ETH place NFTs haven't dipped here. They've dipped a little bit, but not a huge amount. Do you think that if you want another way to express an ETH long here, would be to start buying some NFTs? I'm still cautious on NFTs. I do think

You will continue to have pockets of outperformance. I do think stuff like Xcopy will age very well. I don't think you can go wrong with those trades. It's just a question of when you get your return. But the move so far feels like we're running back last year rather than running back 2021.

And for me, NFTs are truly like collectibles, like art, a lot of sentimental value, less liquid. It's just not where I personally want to have a significant amount of capital tied up. But for multi-year holdings and trades and things where you appreciate the art or the collectible, yeah, absolutely. But as we spoke about a few weeks ago, I sold my Autoglyph to...

buy you know ai coins for example which is which has been a good trade like i think that when i yeah i did that it's like i made four times my money on that coin while all took this to stay at the same level so my view is like while i can keep doing that um it's worth having some exposure to nfts but it's really hard for me to be like yes let me start waving in a lot of entities with the material amount of capital here because i think it will just take a lot to get it to move

Okay, so we've gone down. Macro, we're starting a little bit more shaky. L1 feels like we're definitely more interested in ETH right now. Risky coins, look for volume. We've obviously named a few, again, more ETH, beta, lead, but there's been some other ones which are on Solano showing decent volume and have good risk-reward. And then

NFTs feels still be selective. Um, I go to take that rec. If you guys have time, should we maybe go to questions of other questions this week? Yeah, we have questions. We're back with questions. So, um, let me go now. Obviously we're still in partnership with the public guys. So go, go check them out. Um, I think they probably had a crush this week again on, on the Bitcoin news. They're going to be coming on. Head over to realvision.com for slash arch. Um,

you'll be able to check out all the information there. But yeah, I think that algo continues to kill it in terms of buying lows and selling highs. That's probably sold a lot of Bitcoin today. I'm guessing I need to check what, what trades have done actually. I would imagine it's been selling a lot of Bitcoin today. So, okay. First question from Francisco. Hey boys, can we discuss your expectations on Solana DeFi over the next few months?

I know you've dabbled with like Sonic, DeFi, that kind of stuff. Have you ever looked at Starland DeFi much? Oh yeah, a lot, a lot. The most interesting coin right now in Starland DeFi, in my opinion, is Radium. Just because they have a good flywheel with the token and they have a relatively successful launchpad now. Now, that being said, like there was a recent launch of Boop, which has potentially taken some of the wind out of their sails.

Now, I think you can't really talk about Solana DeFi without talking about the L1. You have seen a return to pump fund volumes, general Solana DeFi volumes, this, that, and the other. My guess is that if we do see a decent move here in ETH, which I am now thinking is my base case, and if beta coins move, I am not...

certain that Solana moves higher if ETH moves higher. That's basically what I'm saying here. And I think that if a lot of the left curve stuff on ETH starts doing well, there could be FOMO there from the Sol gambling community, which is dominated. So I don't know if now's the time I would get into Sol DeFi. That's basically what I'm saying. I would potentially look at ETH

beta is my more risky place. Yeah. Yeah. That's fair enough. I kind of agree with that. Okay, next question. Given the different fundamentals drivers behind Bitcoin and other altcoins, why ought a higher Bitcoin price necessarily lead to higher altcoins? That's a good point. It has, I mean, the correlation is there, but it's not exactly been that amazing with Bitcoin dominant. If you look at the Bitcoin dominance chart, I think

I think that's one of the things that I potentially have deviated from the Rao and Julian kind of view in that I think that global liquidity is really linked to Bitcoin. I don't know if it necessarily is linked to altcoins and the altcoin market gap. And that correlation, particularly for things like ETH, has been slightly more tenuous. I...

I think they are perhaps driven by other things. I don't know if it's necessarily global liquidity that is the main correlation there. I am...

It's weird. Like, it's just like, I feel like with the altcoin bag, it's, it's a lot of it is PDP. Like it's, it's kind of you to be good in altcoins. You need to be here every single day knowing what, what trends are being picked up on. And if you kind of don't look at them, don't look at this space every single day, you can get really badly hurt over a long period of time. And I, I think that's,

we could even have a period here where some like i've just said where some coins do well and that maybe it's eth and eth beta and some coins don't so i'm not even too sure if if if bitcoin goes 105k necessarily would you see like a massive rally in all altcoins i do think that interesting bitcoin dominance would go down though in this scenario just because eth is such a big bit of of the altcoin potentially market let's say yeah yeah i think that makes sense i think um

it's just something we've been back and forth on you know for a long time this year and it's not clear to me um if this time is different uh but i don't think you have to if you have if you have a true alt season literally every altcoin will go mental like it did in 2021 um but if you don't have a true alt season there'll still be pockets of outperformance and so i'm just kind of like assuming there's pockets of outperformance and i think it's clear what

where they are and trying to allocate capital to that. And if we have an, actually do you have an alt season on top of that, then those coins go mental, right? So that's kind of what, that's the way I view it really. Okay, next question. Thoughts on when you will take some profits? Well, I think we both mentioned we took some profits today. Is there, do you have any more thoughts on where you would take more off or plans regarding that?

I've just learned never to do that. Never to believe that like, oh, it's this level or not. I just make a call kind of on this show weekly and like leading up into it. And right now I've taken some profits this week. I've kept Bitcoin. I've reduced a lot of my non-Eth exposure. Like Farcoin have taken off. I've got...

Hengu I had a trade on. I took off some of my Tao even and some of my Sonic and now I'm focused on ETH and ETH buying a potential dip, let's say. Yeah, I agree. I think my plan is like I took a little bit off today just to take some off and I think I'm still holding out for that move. I think once we go through all-time highs on Bitcoin,

My belief is we go through all kinds of Bitcoin. I think you'll see a big, big catch up moving alts and memes. And from that point onwards, I'm looking to just take chips off, I think. DCA out kind of thing. That's my plan. Maybe DCA out of like 50 or 75% of the risk and then keep the rest on for the moon back or whatever. I think that's my plan. Is XRP the new Bitcoin platform?

I really respect that question. Thank you, Noe Jose. I do like that question. I think it needs to be. Let's put it that way. If you're a holder, that's what you're hoping. One thing that I, the reason why I've got more bullish on ETH here, right, is if a L1's value was based on activity, Solana would be probably more than all the other L1s, like by a big distance.

Actually, one of the main uses of an L1 is also being seen as a currency itself. And we've spoken about that. That's the worry, is that stablecoins come in and they just dominate that narrative. Now, if ETH can be viewed as ultrasound money again, it can also be viewed like it was in 2021, 2022. It's like, right, this is a store of value. This is as good as Bitcoin or this has its own benefits.

xrp i think similarly has to have that kind of view where it's like it doesn't matter like we will own xrp because it's a currency and we will own it forever you know um because i don't think the swift stuff's happening guys i think they've got some they're going to do some other stuff around maybe stables and they there was some talk about them by trying to buy circle last week i i think um

I think it needs to be viewed as that sort of a thing. You know, like it's a currency because it's a currency and who cares about the use of the chain? Because XRP should not be valued where it is if it's based on use of the chain. Okay, next question. XLM or HBAR, the cycle, if you just picked one. I saw an interesting tweet on HBAR the other day, by the way. I think it was from G Money.

Here we go. My personal favorite. Hedera has generated 287K in fees over the last 12 months, which is nothing. I don't know if this number is correct, but I'm just reading a tweet. It trades at 8.6 billion FTV. Do you have any thoughts on either of these coins? Hedera is more of a B2B coin. No one really does anything on there from a...

From a retail standpoint, it has some cool activations with corporates. I don't know why it trades where it does. That being said, Stellar, I'm also not like, oh my God, that's the coin to earn. There are some of these coins with really high valuations, and I don't know why they trade so high. And often it's because they have some sort of like tight supply control, and they also often have corporate partnerships.

And that drives the use of the chain. I don't tend to buy any of those coins because then the odd time you get that other coin that we had, what was it? Oh, what was the OM mantra? Where it's like, if that drops, I don't even know why I own it. Because it's like, you have to rely on everything being correct. So, yeah.

I, I'm not a fan of either of those. I tend to stick to ones where it's very obvious why there's value in it on the coin. And for that reason, I'm, uh, I'm sticking to the majors right now. Yeah. For the last year, I've told you not to buy ETH. I'm telling you, as somebody who said that, now might be the time. So I love how the question was, um, which one would you pick? And you basically said neither. Yeah.

I wouldn't pick either of those comments. I'm sorry, but I wouldn't. I guess Stella, but I just wouldn't pick either of them because I don't know how to value them. I would not know why they trade where they are. What about you? I'm the one who gets to answer all the questions. You're wrong with the question.

You're the question master. The question master doesn't always have to answer. He can pick and choose which questions he answers. There we go. There's probably really easy other questions. You just hammer that one at me. Or H-bar.

Okay, next question. Do you expect this bull run to be similar to the last one where the following occurred? The ROI of Solana during the last cryptocurrency bull run said that they're saying early 2020 to November 2021 was approximately 51,892% because the price increased from 50 cents to $2.60. I think that's... Do you want to answer that or should I?

I mean, Solana had an amazing last cycle. Do I think, I don't know if there's any other coin. The only other one that I pointed out in previous shows has been Sonic, which I felt like had really good activity to market cap metrics. There's not many others in terms of L1s, which I think could do a Solana type move. If Bitcoin goes to 150K. Yeah, like I think the question is, do you think that this bull run will be similar to the last one? And Ruth, you've,

highlighted Solana which is one of the best performers of that time period there will be some coins that will move that much I don't know that's a really special case of like an L1 moving a crazy amount did Solana launch in 2020? I guess it did right so it was a it was a coin that was a VC coin that had launched and then it completely took off so I don't know it feels like

The number of L1s, the number of L2s and the number of infrastructure coins now compared to the number of coins in 2020 are materially higher. So is that type of return I feel like is diluted and split across many coins. So I think it's unlikely for something of that scale, a new L1 to come and produce that type of return. I think that's very challenging. There will be some coins that will produce that type of return, but it will be in like the degenerate part of the market, which is likely to be meme coins and perhaps other things.

Yeah, that's the actual case. And then FTX gave another buy of the cherry there. Very last question. Thoughts on Trump coin in the wake of trade agreements? Do you have any views there? I think Trump coin could go high. They delayed the unlocks. I would never short Trump coin. Not here. Not here.

Yeah, I agree. I agree. I think whoever is running it is aware of the impact of unlock, selling, etc. I think they know they need to get to a higher level before they can start selling it.

Okay, cool. Well, with that, that brings us to the end of the show. Oh, what did you say? Because Trump's also aware that he's got this slightly, this to protect as well, a little bit more now in crypto. So maybe they just indefinitely delayed their unlocks for four years, something like that. Then that thing really pumps. Well, that's the thing. Whoever has launched it, they've obviously been tapped on the shoulder and they're like, look,

You guys can't slaughter this thing. We're going to have to figure out something else here. So, yeah, that's right. Cool. Well, with that, that brings us to the end of this week. That was Great Vision. Question for you before we go. Do you think this is the start of the phase two of the banana zone? Please let us know in the comments. Is this the second coming of the banana zone? Also known as the lovely summer of risk. Otherwise known as the lovely summer of risk. Yeah. Yeah.

Make sure you follow us on X, RSF underscore, RET, RET Mando. And please make sure to check out realvision.com forward slash ARCH to register for ARCH Public's product. It is free to register at the entry level. So I'd highly recommend checking that out. We'll be back as usual next Friday, 11.30 a.m. Eastern time, 4.30 p.m. British summertime. I hope everyone has a great weekend and long may this price action continue.

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