Bitcoin Pushes For $100K Despite Macro Uncertainty | Mando & Wizard of SoHo | REKT VISION
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please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much. Hello. We're back for another episode of Wrecked Vision. We have another special guest because SF couldn't make it this week. He's in Dubai shilling wrecked drinks all over the place.

UAE. This week we are going to be joined by Wizard of Soho, pseudonymous. I'll keep you as Wiz for the rest of the show, but ex-Wall Street, ex-macro trader, bond trader, I think to be specific, moved into crypto I think just before we got in, but obviously had been dancing around prop trading and crypto before that. And I guess we got kind of close when I got in in 2021 and

I think I've only really gone closer just by being one of the more professional heads who's stuck around. Great to have you on, Wiz. How are you doing? Very good. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. No worries. I think it'll be good. We'll be able to get through a ton of different topics today. I know you have a ton of different macro views as well as views on meme coins, NFTs, all that sort of stuff. Later, we are going to be joined by the Art Republic guys, which will go to all the Bitcoin setup, but...

How are you feeling about the market in general here? Obviously, today, we've had a bit of a macro day. You had payrolls, which kind of came in slightly better. Middle of the week, you had that very weak GDP figure, and you had the higher inflation figure, which everyone was screaming stagflation. But the market just has kind of shrugged it off, and we've just kind of gone higher in stocks. I think part of that is positioning. Part of that is maybe an expectation that we're going to see some more, like a more dovish reaction to inflation.

a weaker economic picture. How do you think about the market right now? You know, honestly, it's, I was talking to my community this morning. I think it's not that simple anymore. Like if you ask me,

a week ago, or at least when Bitcoin was around under $80K or $75K, or when NASDAQ was lower, I could give you a much stronger view. But now you're in a situation where gold is still sitting at $3,200 plus. Rates are moving higher. 30 years, I'd like $4.75 something. Stocks are moving higher. Volatility is going lower. So there's a lot of contradictory moves. At the same time, you have

It's been nine consecutive days of stocks going up. And this is the first time that's happened since November 2004 or some point in 2004. So almost like 30 years ago.

we haven't seen a move like this, like a consecutive run. Now you could say that we really shouldn't have gotten lower that much on the back of tariffs and so on. And that's a good argument. And we're just kind of repricing that. And a lot of stuff's nowhere close to where it should be. Obviously, Bitcoin is nowhere close. I mean, it is getting closer all the time, but it's still a ways to go. Even if we look at stocks, look at Meta, look at Tesla,

there's still a long ways to go. But it makes it seem like we had great earnings, met up with great earnings, Apple had great earnings. Stocks are still doing well. So we're back to the max seven thing. It's not like everyone's doing well. But then you have this contradictory market thing. Like today, when payrolls are coming up, people ask me, what do you think

If the number is good, you're long or short. And I was like, you know what? I don't know. Because good news can be bad news and good news. It just depends how the market takes it. Like you could have a strong beat on payroll so you could have a higher, you know, employment number.

say, say unemployment number rates stay the same, but you have a headline number that's higher, which we did have, we had 127K. You could be like, okay, so strong economy. So maybe inflation worries, Powell's not going to want to cut. He'll still stay hawkish.

But at the same time, you're like, okay, we were worried about a recession, which what the market was kind of pricing in. So maybe we should reprice that because the economy is doing good because GDP was so bad. But it was kind of like a fake GDP number, but still, it's not great. So it's like, wait, so are we going into recession or not? So we need to reprice that. But then gold didn't go down. So it's like, wait, we're still worried about recession? So, you know, we're at this point where it's like,

I think you could literally flip a coin and that's how it is. There's nobody who can convince me with a strong conviction other than some kind of bad bias that the market should go a certain way. If you're gun to head, I think markets should pull back a bit. I mean, we're seeing like

It doesn't seem like people are as euphoric, though, because I think most of the people are not in the positions that have moved a lot. That's what it feels like to me. It feels like it's positioning. It feels like it's positioning. Yeah, that's what it is. But the numbers are so crazy, right? This whole cycle has been positioning because there's only certain things that are moving.

you know, like premium cycles, you could just buy anything with like, say, 5X leverage and you were going to prank. Like it was a, it didn't, it did not matter. You did not have to have any

coin selection, stock selection, anything. The 2021 cycle, everything moved up. Now, if you're not in the right stocks, if you're not in the right coins, it's night and day. I don't know. I think it's a very tough market, especially right now after this little rally. You want to take profits if you've been long, but then it's like, look at Bitcoin chart. It could just go straight to 100K plus, and then it's like,

I think I need that about 95K with like all the confirmation traders gone in because that like was the reversal on Bitcoin after it hit like 74. Like 95K is what a lot of people were looking for. So those guys are not going to sell to the hits like at least 105K plus. So I think it's tough right now, at least.

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Thank you.

Hi, Raoul here.

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Look, just to dissect some of the things you said there, like I think for me, this kind of reminded me a little bit of COVID. And obviously, I guess the drawdown was not that dissimilar. It was quite a deep drawdown. But when it started rallying and it felt like, oh, you know, this is just like a relief rally and we're going to continue down lower. And then it's kept going. And now it's whatever it is, like,

the longest winning streak for stocks in 20 years. And that points to me that like, nothing's really gotten that much better over this period. Like the trade situation doesn't feel like it's going to be resolved anytime soon, or at least doesn't feel that much closer to being resolved.

You have some pretty weak economic prints. And economic prints point to stagflation. So it's not like you can just be like, oh, he's going to immediately print money and we're going to be fine. I think the Fed's still got to make a decision there if inflation kind of heads higher. Maybe they'll do QE by another name. And

I kind of think like even big tech, obviously at the start of the year you kind of had some of the China worries around AI and various big... catching up on various big tech stuff. I don't think that's...

necessarily in the rearview mirror either. So I think a lot of those more secular shifts, I just feel like are still with us, but it's rallied and it's continued to rally. And then people make a narrative after it's gone up and go like, well, that's what happened. For me, it just feels like it was chasing. And we can kind of see that because every single dip that you saw, it's got immediately bought. It got immediately bought.

And the fact that retail was buying and institutions were selling hedge funds were like the most short stocks they'd ever been. It just feels like one of those squeezy rallies where the narrative will make sense at the end and then we'll all realize what actually happened. That's why it reminded me of COVID. I remember when we first started rallying at the bottom of COVID and it was like, oh, don't buy this rally. This one's going to be bad. And then it just kept going and going and going and going. And that has a little bit of a feeling like that to me.

So macro, I agree with you. It hasn't made a lot of sense for me for a little bit here because bond yields going back up to 5%, I think that's really quite scary. Gold going higher, you would normally assume is not that great an environment. But now stocks are rallying and taking back a lot of their losses.

It's still a mag seven. It's earnings-based. We had earnings this week, and you did see good earnings, which is great, but it's on the back of tech again. Look at that. Apple and Amazon beat expectations, but it's not rosy underneath. That's a great point. We're rallying because we just saw these good numbers on these big tech stocks, but the underlying is still...

Yeah, like, we probably never should have dumped that much.

We had 12% moves, 15% moves in stocks, which you saw during COVID. There was no reason we should have seen moves that big. So yeah, we're seeing some volatility correction. Look at VIX. It's come from 50 plus. It's still elevated at 23. 23 is still elevated. Maybe around 15, you can say that we're back in up only move.

But I don't know. Oil at 58 is like, oh, God, stuff's about to get really bad. But that's the thing, right? See, gold's saying recession. Rates are now saying, like, rates going higher, just saying that, yo, we're back full in, that the market can sustain 5% bond yields means you think growth is going to be amazing.

Or maybe it's just, you know, you have foreign nationals or something like selling bonds or like long end of the curve. Or like you think that, you know, Fed's not going to be as bullish as you think. Like look, two-year notes moved 10 basis points today, right? How does that make sense that stocks are up? It's like Nasdaq's up 1.5%. Yeah, there's like two free stocks that are up. It's just pushing it up. Why is Bitcoin at 97K?

when interest rates are moving up to 12 basis points. Someone's wrong, right? Clearly, someone's wrong. Let's actually get into crypto. Obviously, this is not just a macro show. It's more of a crypto show. I think in this show, we've really been kind of Bitcoin-focused, at least for the last couple of months. It's really been a mixture of Bitcoin plus what are the left curve plays that you want to do. Obi's been more on the AI stuff.

I've been more Bitcoin heavy, but got into Fartcoin and Tau as my two. What are you looking at? Are you also just of the view that Bitcoin dominance is going to go to the moon here and watch out? Yeah, I mean, it is ridiculous. It's like, you see, I mean, I think I still don't understand why people keep pushing this altcoin narrative. I mean,

There is an altcoin rally happening. I mean, look at things like virtuals. It's up like crazy. Go even look at certain meme coins. Look at Popcat, obviously Partcoin. Look at even Chilga. Chilga is up at like $50 million from $10-some million. I mean, it's not the best comparison, but

There are things happening. Look at Sui. Sui is a great example. Sui hit like, what, four something? Yeah, look at the virtual chart. How insane is that? You're telling me a 2-3x, because that's almost going to be a 4x from the lows on medium to large cap, like AI coins, meme coins. That's the alt rally. That's the altcoin season happening. It looks like it's getting close to topping out, at least I would think so.

Bitcoin dominance has been so tricky to play because you see when Bitcoin runs, everything else tries to run with it. But then at every red candle, it dumps. So net-net, you end up lower everything else as Bitcoin dominance goes up. But then when Bitcoin starts dropping, you would think Bitcoin dominance would go down, but it increases even more. And then you have everything double-dumped. You know what I mean? It's...

If you kind of figured that part out early this cycle, you've done really well trading-wise. And it's still tough. I don't see a scenario where Bitcoin dominance is just all of a sudden going to go to 40%, 50% or whatever, even 55%. I don't see it. Bitcoin has become such a strong...

Like macro piece and like, you know, the liquidity in it is so insane. Like nobody wants to buy like dog shit coins at the large scale. Right. Like if you're a fund, large fund and you want crypto exposure, you're like, oh, I did ETFs. It's very liquid. I'm not going to buy that. I'm not going to buy some, you know, random EVM layer five ETFs.

a VC coin, right? Like that world is done. I mean, look at all this, even look at like Bear and stuff, or Bear or whatever that's called. Any of the new launches, like tell me any new launches that have like,

Maybe hype is back up. Hype's the one. Hype seems to be the one. But I think the L1 trade, we've spoken about a bit on this show, that I think the L1 trade is being really affected by just stablecoins. I think the need for the L1 is actually a currency is massively diminishing and they're really becoming gas tokens. And even as gas tokens, they're kind of being replaced. Like Metamask is allowing you to do...

Transact and any token, including stable coins. And a lot of apps are either going gas-free or they're making it so you can basically do it in dollars. So it feels as though, for me, that's like a shift that I don't see. The one chart alongside Bitcoin, which I'm super bullish on in crypto, is stable coin TVL. It's just going to keep on going, right? And then you just kind of have to wonder how...

Do you need other currencies? That's a great point. So can you pull up the chart of stable coins? Like this rally we have had, how much of stable coins have been deployed? Like, are you seeing that chart go down? No, no, no. It's up only. Exactly. It just keeps going up. It just keeps going up. So the way, so that's exactly good point. So where no one's deploying, but market's going up.

Funds are not deploying. They're doing the whole Omaha thing right now, right? Like his annual thing. He hasn't deployed anything. No funds are deploying, but market keeps going up. Why is SUI up so much? Why is virtuals up so much? I think...

With altcoins, it's a zero-sum game right now. In fact, in many ways, it can be a shrinking game. I don't know what the altcoin market cap has done over this period, but it's definitely obviously not as much as the Bitcoin market cap. So it feels as though SUI is probably winning versus ETH. Do you know what I mean? Yeah. Well, that's the thing. It's pushing the sand aside.

That's exactly what's happening this whole cycle, right? If you consider right now from 2023, the move, like 2023 December to...

sorry, 2023 January to now, to like Trump coming in, that's what I consider one cycle. I remember like Bitcoin 16K to like 110K, whatever, right? You saw a lot of like, you saw Solana go from $8, whatever, to like 250 plus. So that's what I, that cycle was all pushing the sand aside, which it still is right now. The only time it's not that is when you have a stimulus, right? Because it's like a,

That's when meme coins and NFTs and stuff really run, right? Because it's like, think about a cap with buckets, and then you have money flowing in to, say, Bitcoin, which is what people always... This is how it historically worked, and people thought it was going to work again, because they were like, oh, once Bitcoin pumps, then that money, where people are going to take profits, and then they're going to invest that into ETH and SOL, and then when that pumps, that's going to go into altcoins, and then that pumps, that's going to go into meme coins, and then that pumps, that goes to NFTs. But

But it's not like that because that first bucket, there's no connection to the second bucket anymore because all the first bucket volume sits on ETFs and like tradfib books, not on centralized exchanges as much. Centralized exchanges are just playing around mostly with leverage, right? Like it's not just the fact that stable coins have gone up so much, like stable

TVL of stablecoins kind of proves that that you're not seeing stablecoins being deployed in like spot Bitcoin as much on centralized exchanges as you did or like decentralized exchanges as you did historically. That's why there is no like that trickle down effect doesn't exist. But for somebody like that to come back, you would need like like just the whole M2 supply that makes Bitcoin go up. That's like

It's not really working out as it should. You know what I mean? Because that money is just staying. It's not getting deployed. And whatever is getting deployed, it's going in tech. And that's kind of it. Maybe in dollar. Yeah, it's difficult to work out where it's kind of going. Do you have a strong view on that? Also from an international perspective here, do you think the reason why Bitcoin's maybe going up

Is this questioning of dollar hedge money or do you think it's more just... No, I don't think that's... So my view was when I saw this rally, especially when... So you know when there was this rumor, maybe two or three weeks ago, that China's dumping treasuries?

that's safe, like selling. It was like when the trade wars had escalated, I think when the second set of cards went in. So my view was that, because gold started rallying like crazy, it was being like three, 4% candles every day, which is insane, right? Like it shouldn't do that. My view is that they were, because if they're selling treasures, which they probably were, seems like it was from like whatever color I got off the street,

where's that money going to go? It's got to get deployed somewhere. You can't just sell and be like, what are you going to keep it in yen? Or you could like euros maybe, but there's not enough of that for how much they sell, right? So like, okay, you're going to keep it in dollars, but,

Then what's the difference between you keeping in treasuries or keeping in dollars anyways? What was the purpose of that? Just making rates go up and weakening your own existing position? So I think what they were doing is that whatever they sold, I think they deployed it in gold and they deployed a small chunk in Bitcoin. But because Bitcoin is such a small liquidity pool out there relative to all the other assets, that's one of the reasons it's been pumping so much, that initial pump that it had.

I think it was just whoever was selling, maybe some of these, like, I think it was just China just selling the treasuries and buying a small component. But I don't think it has anything to do with their view on the dollar or anything else because they still own the shit kind of dollars and treasuries. But I think they were just deploying it because you have to deploy it into something. You can't just keep it like, you know, dollar cash. Yeah.

I think at least that's my view. I don't know if that's true or not. The price action kind of shows that. Like, you know, who has the money out there all of a sudden got liquidity during the trade war to start buying gold and Bitcoin like that? Forget Bitcoin. Just start buying gold. And then you think it trickled down to Bitcoin as well. But China always has been kind of bullish on Bitcoin, right? Yeah.

So changing gears slightly, because we're obviously in a slightly more macro, and then we just talked about an overview top-down for Bitcoin. I think you're basically saying similar things to me. Is it Bitcoin? And then it's maybe you've got to pick your spots. It was kind of similar to what it was last year, where Bitcoin dominance went higher and meme coins dropped.

kind of feels like having a little bit of that this time, except it's memes and it's maybe AI and a couple of other small coins. What AI coins do you like? I wasn't like all the, I wasn't that stuff like A16Z and... Well, you're in Farcoin. You're in Farcoin. Yeah, I'm a big, I mean, yeah, there's a, there's a,

I mean, I am very bullish on Farcoin, but I do think we should see, I mean, do you not think we should pull back to like one at least or zero point? Like I'm really trying to bid again at zero point. It's very consensus as a trade right now. I think that's the one risk to Farcoin is that everyone thinks it's the coin. And generally that's not a great time. Right. Like it needs to, the hope needs to die a little bit again and then it catches everyone off guard. Yeah.

So, and that's why I think it's weirdly the rally and things like virtuals

has been stronger because that feels like it's just caught people out. You know, it's, it's these sort of narratives that have caught people out. And Ovi was actually pretty good at that stuff to be like, that narrative will come back and everyone's suddenly underinvested to it. He probably was buying way too high to begin with. Um, but he was right in that actually the stuff that bounced the hardest off the bottom was in the AI, in his AI coins. And, uh,

I own Tau, which I quite like, but it's really just Tau and Farquaad are mainly AI coins. Tau's pretty good, yeah. Tau's pretty good. What do you think of the L1s between Solana and ETH? Will, do you own any of those? It's just Bitcoin? No, no, I do like L1s. So I'm excited for that Tari coming out.

That should be good. I think you can still mine it. I know a lot of people mining it. I've been mining it. I think that's an easy play right now where you invest like no money, just need a laptop and start mining. I think it's going to get tougher as more people are going to, especially after mainnet launch this week or next week, I think it's going to get a little bit challenging to just mine from just a regular laptop. Maybe I could be wrong, but I think if you're just looking to farm something, I think that's going to be an easy thing

play with almost close to no base level investment that you can print. Hyperliquid airdrop was you had to trade a lot. That was a legitimate risk. But Tari airdrop is no real risk involved. Just go and mine and hope for the best.

I think it's going to do really well because I think privacy layer narrative is definitely going to come back. And I think you should see Monero as well start moving up. I think that's kind of being pushed in America as well. Like you're kind of seeing those coins, like they were kind of on the ban list, like any privacy layer stuff, like, you know, like tornado and stuff. And I think with the Trump administration, they have kind of eased up on it. So I think Tariq narrative would work.

you know, like maybe that's, you know, it's not the best way to say it, but it seems like there's a lot of people in power who want to like, you know, not showcase their money on the public ledger are going to push for, you know, maybe privacy is a good thing, even though the, you know, it's kind of antithesis of what crypto is supposed to be. But I think there was a lot of demand from Monero before, you know, people started banning it. So I think now that it's getting unbanned, we should see push.

There's a mix, isn't there? Like I saw today, I'd see the Europe said it wants to, it plans to ban some of these privacy points by 2027. But at the same time, the U S has basically just allowed tornado cash. Yeah. That's a court ruling. So it feels like that's going to be a difficult one to just suddenly come in and overturn. So,

I'm interested to see how they develop. There is definitely a need for privacy changes. I don't think people love the idea that when you want to do anything on the blockchain, everyone can see it at times. No, I think that's definitely going to be... I think that's what I think. I think privacy layers are going to have a big comeback

And all that stuff is extremely undervalued. And I think if Tari does well, especially, it'll bring that narrative massively. Because then if that does, people are going to chase betas. And then you'll see more investments in that sector as well. And obviously, like Monero used to be like,

the cult of Monero was like an XRP cult, like in its heyday. So I think, uh, especially now that America is like a pro privacy layers and they're, you know, completely okay with all these things. Like I think you're going to see a big comeback, um,

on that side. I think that narrative will see a lot of flow of money, which is going to be cake, which is, again, it's going to be a lot of sand being pushed aside again. So you'll see that money go from the Eats, the Solanas, the Suis, stuff like that, into like Atari or Monero.

One of the other big stories this week was, was Saylor came out today or yesterday and said, I think in October, he'd announced a $42 billion that he plans over the next three years to raise $42 billion to buy Bitcoin today. Oh, yes. He said he wants to double that. So, and he wants to split it between 42 billion of equity and 42 billion of fixed income, which I assume would be debt. Yeah.

What do you make of all this situation? Because when I saw 42 billion, I think of B, he's a B credit, I think, maybe B plus, but like, yeah, it's 42 billion.

Things could get spicy. What do you think? Maybe that's a consensus thing too, that everybody thinks it's going to result in the next big crash of Bitcoin. And we don't really make the real big, big move like that 200, 250K move on Bitcoin until you redistribute a sailor's position.

But at the same time, management just keeps going up and he keeps printing and the demand is there. The demand is so much that you got, you know, guys like at Cantor and other funds that are like, we're going to do this too. It's just free money. And you're going to see more. You're going to see more people. Like the fact that Cantor is doing it and Cantor stock, like what I run like

Up like 2, 3x or some shit like that Like it pumped like crazy when they said They're going to do the same thing I think you're going to see more and more people do it And you're just going to have this massive Centralized risk He's got how many percent? 1, 2% now? Maybe more? He's got 2% I think right now So he's going to aim for what? 5%?

I think he's got just less than 2%. I think his original aim was to get to 2%. Yeah, he's not at 2% now, but when he's going to have with the new funds, it's going to be like 5% almost, no? Yeah, it's going to be high, right? Yeah, that's insane. A 5% concentration risk?

I mean, you tell me, would you ever invest in a meme coin? Levered. Yeah, levered concentration. So just like, you don't even have to be like a big time investor. Say you're buying a meme coin. You just look at a meme coin and you see on a bundle, there's a 5%. What would you do? Would you buy it?

I always give a different example, which is like, if your friend told you, I'm going to buy $42 billion of Bitcoin and take a loan out to do it,

you'd probably be like that's madness it's worked though it's worked for him that's the thing right that's the thing it's worked so well that as i'm not saying it's not but like it worked till it won't i mean this issue always will repeat itself and there's been these kind of things in like every market and you need to have that cleanse at some point and it'll just be a history lesson um

But look at it this way. If 5% of Bitcoin was dumped, I mean, it's not going to be like that. But even if it was, the liquidity that exists in Bitcoin now is significant. Like probably 100x what it was even like three years ago with the ETFs, right? So I don't think we're going to see a scenario where you went from like 67k to 16k. Like maybe you go to 50k.

Maybe. Maybe you go all the way up to $150K and then you go back down to $90K or $80K. Like, okay. So that's best case scenario. So let's hope that that's what happens. Or that he just, you know, he says he's never going to sell. So whatever that means. Maybe you need a black swan event. Like, I don't even know. What's a black swan event that could cause a 50% dump in Bitcoin? Like, what kind of move? You're never going to have COVID scenario again.

no one's going to go for that. People would rather just die than shut down again. So what, like asteroid hitting us? Does that matter, I think, is the question. If he has up-coming maturities, which he has to roll, right? If he's refinanced it, what do you mean? But will he be able to refinance it? People are giving him infinite, like just money, bro, for whatever. Well, let's say he has 84, let's say he has 40 billion of debt he has to refi.

I think there's a chance where he may not issue more debt to just do that. Of course, yeah. America has been doing this for hundreds of years. He might have to just sell the asset, though. There's two options there. There's three options. He either gets liquidated, he can just sell to save space. He could sell. At a big profit, he's up a lot.

Who knows in two years, right? He's only been doing this for two years. So I think you have to think about it this way. What would be a scenario that would send Bitcoin to $40K? You had this massive trade war shit where stocks dumped that they haven't dumped since COVID, which was the last big real black swan event. We had bigger dumps in stocks and NASDAQ than we did during COVID a couple of weeks ago. And Bitcoin got to, what, $74K?

He was still buying. I actually, but this is the thing. I think he's done really well so far to keep his leverage low. Like he's been really low, right? He got well below his average price during the last. But this is going to be more equity too, right? Like it's kind of runnables. Oh, what is the structure? I think it's, I need to check his current holdings at all, but like this is going to add some level of depth.

And the maturities and interest payments, obviously, most probably if he raises 42 billion. I agree, remote or maybe remote, really depends. Like, he might have a sell-sell. Maybe, maybe. Maybe he has a sell. But the question is, are we mid-curving it? Or by even, like, thinking that we shouldn't be... Like, what's the... Is there a trade here?

By saying like, okay, he's going to get destroyed. Is that something we trade? The trade every hedge fund put on was short, micro-sourced, and go long Bitcoin. And that's been a good trade this year, right? Or maybe for the back end of the launch. Okay, fine. The risk premium, right? Like you're shorting, you're collecting that carry. Yeah. The bull case for an equity owner is that you own a lot of Bitcoin.

Part of your capital is to repay debt and that you basically have a levered position there. And

The bull case is that he's able to create some equity value with the Bitcoin. Like he turns it into some sort of Bitcoin bank or there's some sort of unlock there maybe with Bitcoin DeFi that he can actually give you real yields. I'm not just saying. That's a good point. That is a possibility. There's nothing. It's very possible that he turns into like a Bitcoin bank kind of thing.

Are we becoming micro-strategy bulls during this call? Is that what we've turned around? I mean, I'm not saying a bull, but I don't think we should ponder so much and mid-curve it by using that as an input in our trade anytime soon. You can't get bearish just because he's levered up and that's stupid.

Yes, at some point, probably it's going to be the house built on cards or whatever that's saying. It's going to happen at some point, but I don't think it's going to be that easy to figure out. I think the moment you do see a black swan that comes and you see like, okay, like a 6%, 7% move down on Bitcoin, I think that's when you start shorting MSTR in size. Yeah.

Because you'll just build on that narrative that we're talking about. Then it becomes the right curve trade. I think right now, it's just if you're getting bearish because of MSTR buying, like, yeah, short MSTR buy Bitcoin. That's the only trade you can do. That's about it. So we're going to come towards the end and bring up the public guides. But let's summarize this a little bit.

Long or short, and what do you want to own right now with? You look across a lot of different things. What is the majority of your portfolio? What do you think is the best thing right now? Or do you think after this bounce to stay nimble, go back into cash? Yeah, I'm more nimble here. I've been closing a lot of positions. I've just kept...

some spot Bitcoin that I've hedged with Bitcoin puts. I have May 16 puts on Bitcoin just because if power comes out hawkish or we see a pullback, I mean, one of the biggest moves in 25 years, you got to think there's some pull coming at some point. So I got those Bitcoin puts as hedge. I like

but I want to see a pullback to under one again. And, you know, like you said, you should see it is a consensus trade. So we should pull back a little bit.

at some point. Uh, my other thing I like, I actually like Pepe kind of more than, uh, uh, eat. Uh, I think Solana obviously has the best rebounds on dips. If you see any big dips again, I'll definitely go back into Solana. I think people thought like it was what, 95 and almost a two X on the, um, on that trade. Like that's pretty amazing. Uh,

Other than that, you know, I like pudgy penguins, obviously. I kind of like pengu just because they've been... What about rex? Have you seen them being erected? Yeah, yeah. So, well, that's what I was about to say. Erected as well. Like, instead of eat, like, if you're an eat maxi, you should, you would, you're better off deploying into, say, Pepe, Rekt, and...

into Pudgy Penguins, Mog, stuff like that. Mog's been struggling a little bit, but Pepe starts moving, Mongo probably starts moving too. Same with Rekt. I kind of see those trio together, like Pepe, Mog, and Rekt. So I think that's a good portfolio to have, a little bit of higher risk. I like Pengu just because I saw that they were, they filed for like a ETF thing. Maybe it's a little like fluff, but it's still a good narrative behind it.

Especially because there's a Doge ETF that's getting pushed as well. So that kind of legitimizes meme coins a little bit at a bigger scale. I saw those guys going to White House and they're probably talking to people to try and get these approvals. Other than that, man, I'm probably like 50% stables cash here. I'm not looking to get in unless I see a dip again. That makes me bullish, man. We'll...

That I'm 50% stables? Damn. Yeah. Dude, I think everyone's like that. Everyone's so scared. When Ovi, we have a chat, me, you, and I, actually, we talk a lot of stuff. And I think we're about 85K. We were like, oh, you know, maybe it'll range around here for a little bit. And then he just said, I think everyone thinks that. And then... He was right on that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It went long after that. And I haven't looked back since. Yeah, that 88K level, I remember, because Ovi was like,

Yeah, everyone's literally thinking we're going to pull back. I thought that too. I took a lot of profits at 88K and 95K because those were the key levels. I'm like, this keeps going. Oh, God damn it. But yeah, let's see. So we're going to bring up the ArchPublic, guys. I know there's a ton of content being created at the moment in Dubai. Raoul's done a ton of different things. I know he's at the SUI conference at the moment. So go check out a ton of different stuff happening, I think, on Real Vision.com.

some very interesting talks and views. I think over the last few days, people are going to come back from Dubai and have a better view of the market. But we have it in the eye of the public, guys. Thank you, Tillman, for coming on. Absolutely. What have you made so far? What have you made so far? Bitcoin. I think the noise is not the signal. I think they're separate more than ever at this point. I think you saw in January, February, and March,

An average of about seven publicly traded companies add Bitcoin to their balance sheet or announce that. We saw 15 in April. So I think retail is caught in limbo where they're questioning what the direction looks like because there are so many mixed signals that are coming across, like you guys discussed. But at the same time, I don't think the institutional buy-in that's really supporting this next bull run is

I think they move a lot slower than we're used to moving in this space. And I think that there are significant, there's significant flywheel energy that's been created that is not going to dissipate anytime soon. It's actually going to continue to build. It takes a long time for a publicly traded company to get to the point where they're willing to add Bitcoin to the balance sheet. Regulatory changes in the last four months have been,

you know, lent that to be kind of the trend. I think it's going to be a mega trend. I think we've just started to see kind of the early adopters take that on. But I think eventually you're not going to, if you're in a highly competitive environment or market sector, you're not going to be able to afford not to put Bitcoin on your balance sheet at some point, in my opinion. So, you know, that's kind of where I look at it is the macro trend is still so strong that

In these micro pullbacks or even intermediary pullbacks, I look at as buying opportunities, especially on Bitcoin. I think one of the most important things y'all talked about was this Bitcoin dominance number being, it's tricky because I think this cycle is going to be a lot different than the previous cycles. I think Bitcoin is going to absorb a lot of the liquidity in the space, and I think that

that if you look at like eight times the monetary value of futures contracts were traded over spot in the last week, you know, we've already seen the big money turn

tell us where their preference is as it pertains to playing the Bitcoin market. And a lot of the charters preclude them from owning Bitcoin in physical form. So they're forced to buy some alternative like MicroStrategy, like the ETFs. And that trend is going to continue because those charters don't get changed. They're permanently etched in stone. And so they're going to be continuing. Michael Saylor said something that really, you know,

He always says things, and if you look behind the comment, you really see the truth. He always says, I buy on the dips. I buy on all the tops. I don't care about buying on the dips. Well, I think a lot of the crypto retail space interprets that as he loves Bitcoin so much, he doesn't care where the price is.

Well, that's not what he's doing, right? He gets the most leverage when Bitcoin's price is the highest. Therefore, he gets to buy more Bitcoin. So there's this hidden truth that I think a lot of retail is not seeing. But he also said something when somebody asked him, like, why are you seeing this infinite money in terms of demand that's coming to these products?

And he pointed out exactly what I just said. A lot of these companies want to have exposure to Bitcoin, but they cannot through spot. So I am going to continue to make products that facilitate large liquidity pools getting exposure to Bitcoin.

in the way in which they are most comfortable. And I don't think that trend is even, we haven't even scratched the surface. If you look at Bitwise and some of the major things that they are launching in terms of like the Bitcoin standard ETF,

They're creating volatility above Bitcoin's volatility, just like the altcoins provided us in previous cycles. So in my opinion, more money is going to flow into Bitcoin. And then if you want to play the speculative game and the high risk game, you just get into some of the Bitcoin derivatives products and you have no need to then like he was like Bitcoin.

The bucket from layer one to layer two has been disconnected. I would completely agree with that. So yeah, that's, I think you guys are pretty spot on. It's retail is chasing their tail, wondering where, where the next direction is. And if you look though, at kind of the biggest players out there, their forecast for this bull run, like,

you know, BlackRock, $700,000 Bitcoin. Well, that's a lot different than even what we all think is traditional Bitcoiners is like, oh, can we hit 200, 250? These people are seeing a mega trend behind the curtain and they have the deepest pockets. The amount of supply that exists in Bitcoin compared to the liquidity that exists on the earth coupled with the fact that we're printing a new $5 trillion of liquidity, you know, it's, it,

It almost has to go up because money has to go somewhere. And when you're looking at the macro environment as unstable as we see on the brink of war, wars going on, all these things, that uncertainty drives people towards failure.

And I think that's why we've seen the run in gold. I also think that's why we've seen the decoupling of Bitcoin from the traditional markets and from the altcoins. If you look at even the last few months of volatility in the NASDAQ,

It's more volatile than Bitcoin. So that has never happened before in our lifetime. And I think it's a testimony to the amount of real trad five dollars that are now supporting the dips on buying Bitcoin. But I do think, you know, in order for the mass supply.

amount of companies that want to add it to their balance sheet or will want to add it to the balance sheet, they're going to have to create short term volatility to accumulate those positions. And so that chop is an opportunity if you can handle it. And it's a liability if you don't know what to do with it. And that's what Saylor has also said is like the volatility of Bitcoin is a feature, not a short side.

Yeah, I agree with actually all of that. I think, I think Bitcoin dominance, we're kind of all saying that on this show here. You've got to be careful if you, first, you've got to be very, very aware that Bitcoin correlation to altcoins is not always that amazing. And then secondly, that you just gotta be careful when you kind of dip into the altcoins, like which ones you're going to buy. Like it's,

Bitcoin is just on its own plane. And clearly, you're saying what Joy said earlier about the institutional backing for it all. Which trades did we do this week in Bitcoin? I know you kind of freaked out. Do you want to have them? I know...

Yeah. So the best way to follow all the trades is we picked up John Deaton, if you're familiar with him, is now using our software on a variety of instances, six hour, one hour, one day. And he's posting all of those trades to his Twitter account. He wants to kind of give a fully transparent follow my account view of what he's doing. And he's doing it aggressively enough where it's a great spot for everybody to kind of pay attention to how the algos work and how they take advantage of

volatility that we see in the market. But yeah, we've taken multiple trades this week, timed those bottoms perfectly in a lot of those instances. And, you

And continuing to build the stack, if the trade goes against you, it becomes a long-term hodl position. And if the trade's in profit, then you're able to take that profit and produce a yield component to hold your hodl bag. So it's going exceptionally well. We've got over 1,500 customers joining per week.

excuse me, per month to see what the software is about. And we also have taken over the whale experience at the Bitcoin conference this year with Gemini, Gemini and ArchPublic.

we're sponsors of the entire whale room and the whale stage. So we will have, we'll be giving away about $50,000 worth of Louis Vuitton Rolex watches, those types of things at the conference. And we'll also have a private room where you can come in and meet the team and see the products and we can answer questions and kind of go through all that. We'll have Scott Melker doing interviews also in that room. So big, big,

big fun event at the end of this month that we're looking forward to uh how much you need to have to be in the bitcoin well room is that is that i think tickets just went up i i don't quote me on this but i think they started about 7 000 at the beginning and i think they're close to 10 000 that's not well come on it's not wales come on we were hoping for like 100 bitcoin minimum yeah yeah yeah exactly

Well, I wish that that was the case, but I also don't because if you have no stack, right, and you're willing to pay the dollars, we're going to see a lot of politicians in that room this year. There's supposedly 1,800 plus whales that could be participating in politics.

room this year. So a lot of, I think we're going to see at the Bitcoin conference, a new range of faces that we've never seen before. I think up until this point, you've kind of seen the peripheral politicians come in and try to use it as a way to get votes. I think you're going to see mainstay people in office that have a lot of power and responsibility showing up. And I know some of the

the folks that are on Trump's crypto cabinet are absolutely going to be there. So it should be a fun time specifically because it's in Vegas. I mean, you can't go wrong. At least you're going to Vegas if not going to a conference. I agree. Definitely going to be a fun time. All right. Well, yeah, I guess go check them out at the Bitcoin conference. That seems like a fun event. And yeah, we've obviously...

We've obviously been a big supporter of you guys and the product that came out. It was very good during the ranging market. It'll be interesting to see if we range again here, as Joy kind of says. If we go back down, I think this product is really going to outperform well again. At the moment, at least for the last couple of weeks, it's been kind of a nice, gentle rally pretty much the whole time. So let's see how the next few months go.

Absolutely. Yeah, volatility is where it feeds. So the more volatile the price is and the tighter the range, the more trades that are going to be triggered.

Okay. All right. Well, look, that's it for this week. We have Wizard of Soho. Go check him out. Wizard of Soho on X. You can find him, I think, on Instagram too, right? You have a bit of an Instagram game. Good follow for a range of different reasons. You'll enjoy the content. Also has his own community and his own newsletter as well. So go check those out. And obviously, you know where to find the Archpublic, guys. Thank you again for coming on, Tillman. I really appreciate your time.

Okay, guys. Thank you. Appreciate it. See you guys next week. OSF will be back and hopefully Bitcoin will be above 100K. All right. Bye, guys. Bye. If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.

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