Crypto Whipsaws on Tariff Uncertainty | OSF and Mando | Rekt Vision
58:53 Share

Before we start, I want to take a minute to talk about our friends at Bitwise. Bitwise has a lot to offer to people like us who live and breathe crypto every single day. They're a crypto asset manager with $10 billion in client assets and a team of more than 100 people across the US and Europe.

They've got the world's largest crypto index fund, a wide range of crypto ETFs, on-chain solutions, you name it. They also manage private alpha strategies, have SMAs for large investors, and are one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking providers. And by the way, they've been doing it all since 2017. These guys are pretty much OGs.

So check out Bitwise, go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all they've got to offer. That's bitwiseinvestments.com or just email [email protected] and let them know that Rekt brought you over.

There are a million ways to access crypto. Do it with those who are all in on crypto, who care about the ecosystem, who live and breathe crypto every day. Look for Bitwise at bitwiseinvestments.com. And of course, always carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto. Hi everyone, I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast,

please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much. Well, hello, guys. I'm on location, so to speak, but we are doing another episode of RekVision this week. Good to have you again, OSF. It does feel as though the market, I wouldn't say it's completely over, but it's definitely been a bit of a soggy end to the week, Bitcoin heading back towards 105K and some weakness and alts. I think we've

We kind of predicted that this could be a little bit of a mini top where we broke through all-time high, but how have you been doing over the last week? Yeah, I think I feel like the big theme this week has been the legendary British trader, James Wynn, who has been running billion-dollar risk positions in Bitcoin, levered longs, taking leverage up to like 40x, 50x, etc.,

And I think that's moved and created quite a lot of volatility in the Bitcoin price. I think when you're one person who does that and you have one position on, like you haven't split it across wallets and whatnot, everyone's out to get you, right? Like everyone, big whales can be like, okay, cool. Let's just liquidate him. Let's just short it, liquidate him, cover our short, go long and, you know, ride that whipsaw basically. And I think that's kind of what's been happening this week. People have been,

hunting his longs. And I almost think he's sort of been tricked into it, right? The market massively rallied when he was long. It all looked good. It probably gave themselves an entry point to short and then just nuked it in his face, basically. And then eventually he did get liquidated. And I think he lost almost $100 million in a week. Apparently just a random guy. Apparently some random guy in the UK. I don't know if I believe it's just some random guy or not. I don't know what you believe, but...

It's definitely an interesting one. I think that's what's caused volatility in Bitcoin. I think there was quite a lot of open interest out there on alts when I looked the other day on alts and memes. And some of that is now starting to get wiped out too. So that's generally, in my opinion, a bullish move for the market. You want the greedy leverage to come out of the system and to see those liquidations before we can move higher again in a...

scenario where the positioning is much cleaner. So I think we do, I personally think we do bounce from here, but yeah, like he was, when he was there swinging this stuff around, the writing was kind of on the wall for Bitcoin, I think. Hi, Raoul here.

Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now.

So I think that points to kind of what we've been saying is that we felt as though it was getting a little bit frothy. I think last week we said that you were about 70% invested. I was maybe slightly lower than that, more like 60%.

In today, I've got myself back up to like 80% because I felt as though a lot of that froth has kind of come out a little bit from alts and from even from majors even. And maybe people aren't familiar with James Wynn, but he's become this almost infamous trader in the crypto markets where...

He got himself long over a billion dollars of Bitcoin towards the top and then got short and then got long again, but chopped himself up and has lost $100 million, it looks like, on Hyperliquid over the last week. And I think he just, like you said, it points to...

What we were starting to see in the market, which is that money was becoming very easy to make, but like being long. And I think people were moving towards more risky stuff. And a lot of that stopped it down, you know, 20, 30% over the last week.

And now it feels like a good point for me to kind of get a bit more along. So I've been buying a lot more of the ETH beta players, which I feel like could play well over the next few months. ETH alongside FAA and a couple of other trades there. But

I think it's good for the market. This kind of have a little bit of a retest. If you just kind of went straight line up through 110 to 120 to 130, I just think that the pullback would be even more aggressive. Whereas now we can consolidate a little bit here around, you know, 105 to 110 K. And I think that that points a much better position for us to go higher in the, over the next month or two.

Have you been making any trades over the last 24 hours, 48 hours? I haven't really done much, to be honest with you. Like, I feel like I'm positioned for an alt season and I don't feel the need to have to trade around that position right now. I think like this week did seem like an obvious, it seemed like a really obvious point to sell risk and be able to buy that. Like, I think that was really rising on the wall, maybe on whenever it was Monday or Tuesday. Um,

But, you know, I just think the, for me, that's like forest and trees. And I think I'm just better off holding the positions I like for an all season and hoping that plays out. I think what we've seen is just clearly a very technical move. And I think it's a very short term technical move. And the underlying fundamentals haven't really changed. And, you know, if you look at,

global liquidity in the US money supply chart, et cetera, et cetera. But all of that stuff remains the same this week. I guess there has been some back and forth, some headlines on tariffs. But I don't think, when I saw the first headline on the court ruling,

My initial assumption was that there's no way this stands. It just seemed kind of irrelevant. So when the markets rallied on that, I felt like that wasn't really the reason why the markets rallied. I think it was just like markets wanting to rally, probably a sign of positioning or being under risk again. And we didn't even really sell off that much once it was overturned. So I think for me, that's a nothing headline. For me, the markets look like they're trading technically very strong in terms of equities.

um we still have a lot of room to follow and track on that global liquidity chart and i think crypto we just saw huge uptick in leverage and you know certain individuals displaying their positions for all to you know come and attack and i kind of think we've seen that story finished now with some liquidations across the board so from here i do think it's probably in my opinion i think it's a good point to buy risk and

What's interesting is we keep talking about alt season, but Bitcoin dominance has actually rallied in the last couple of days or so. We're back up to 64.1%. And a lot of alts are down. They're down pretty bad. Stuff is down...

15, 20, 25, 30% in the past week or so. And I think a couple of weeks now we've had people asking like, I have some spare dry powder. Should I buy now? Should I wait? And this to me feels like a good entry point now on that stuff with this backup, I think.

Yeah, I agree. I think it could last for another week or so, maybe even two weeks. I think this consolidation isn't just that you just go straight back to all-time high. I think you can kind of chop around this sort of level here. I think in terms of when I really start to reduce risk, it would be mid-June or late June, let's say. But I think we've got another week at least of chop, and then I think we can push on higher from there.

In terms of majors, maybe we can go through it a little bit because like you said, Bitcoin dominance has gone high. ETH hasn't had a terrible week though, right? And I think that's something that we flagged on the show again is that ETH has definitely been outperforming versus some of the other major L1s. The other trade has been hype, which maybe we'll get to a bit later. But out of those three majors, Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, maybe XRP, what are you drawn to at the moment?

I still really like ETH. I think, once again, nothing has changed from what we spoke about, and I spoke about this with Raoul the week before as well. It feels like it has momentum. Obviously, you had the ESPET news this week of...

I guess, trying to create like a macro strategy for ETH. We should get into that a little bit. It's been the first company that's really come out and done this ETH treasury strategy. It's been noticeable that Bitcoin has had this and even Solana has had this, but this is the first company to come and do this on ETH. They have bought $450 million, looks like, of ETH and they have a number of different ETH OGs as advisors to the company.

Is this going to be a trend, do you feel like? It feels like this could be the start of something good for ETH from institutional adoption, at least. I think so. Look, Sharplink's stock year-to-date is now up 10x. It's up 1,000%. And I think it moved, what, 500%, 600% on this news. It keeps going up, actually. It's gone pretty crazy. It's at $90 now. I saw DC Investor write about buying it at $20. Now it's at $90.

So this has gone completely parabolic. And we saw GameStop rally when that got announced. I believe there was something else that also went a lot higher when it got announced, but it seems like just having...

Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready?

Thank you.

The crypto treasury, whether it's Bitcoin or, you know, apparently ETH as well, it seems to allow...

or open your stock up to a new pool of buyers and whether that's a younger crowd and they start perceiving these stocks as meme stocks, whether in this case it's a bunch of ethos who have a lot of capital who decided, okay, now let's just buy this thing and pump it because that strengthens the narrative for us. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but if you're a corporate out there and you're crypto curious or crypto curious,

you know, friendly, I don't see why, and you have assets to allocate, or if you have the ability to raise capital, whether it's through debt or equity, I don't see why you wouldn't do this right now because it feels like you can instantly multiply your market cap. And that may be a short-term phenomenon. Who knows? Maybe this starts to feel diluted over time, but it's, you know, it's pretty crazy, really. I think there's a lot of first mover advantage that we see with this. You know, like Strategy was the first company to kind of do this

And it still trades at like 2x book. And maybe Sharpling will be the first person to do this for the ETH.

And we could see a number of different companies coming in now to do this very quickly. It's very clear that the equity markets have got the idea that buying crypto from an equity perspective is a good trade. We've seen this with Sol Strategies, with Soprano. We've seen this with strategy with Bitcoin. And now it feels like the trade is going to happen as well with ETH.

And it hasn't happened up until now with ETH. But it just feels like there's a bit. I'm going to say this, but it feels like when it goes higher, it's still a bit of a pain trade. It's the first time I felt that in about 18 months. It always felt like ETH was a pain trade lower.

And now it feels like when it rallies, no one really owns it or like everyone's kind of forgotten about it or sold it and moved on to L one. So I think the pain trade is maybe higher, even if it's more technical rather than fundamental as a move. Let's put it that way. Um, the other big mover has been hype hyperliquid, which is, it's kind of done roughly a three X now from its low about, uh, in early, uh, early April, uh,

What do you think of that as a trade? It's been very popular with some of the stalwarts of crypto at the moment, like some of the well-known traders. Some of those got involved with the airdrop early on. It's obviously a very, very well-known decentralized platform now. And it also does spot, you can buy a bunch of Bitcoin there or a bunch of other spot cryptos there.

What do you think of that at 32? FDV is quite high at 32 billion, but they are buying back 700 to 800 million of the current market cap a year. Do you think that's the thing to own here? Or do you think it's kind of that trade's done? I've started to become a bit more receptive to it. I think at the beginning, I was like, this is just another perp deck. It feels like a very crowded trade. I'm not sure why everyone thinks this thing is revolutionary anymore.

As time has gone on, I've sort of come to understand that, number one, they've obviously done a great job at marketing, where it's not even really the team that's marketing. They just have super diehard people, diehard whales on it, marketing it the entire time. Second thing is I think there is this sort of negative sentiment towards centralized exchanges for multiple reasons, and especially after the Coinbase thing recently. There are multiple, multiple reasons there is a negative sentiment

from ct towards centralized exchanges so this hyper liquid sort of feels like the protest against that right like i'm going to do all my part trading here because you know fuck you centralized exchanges all that kind of stuff so i think that's another reason um why people are onto it as well and it's obviously a good product you know like you never really hear it had some issue i think i guess like when was it like a couple of months ago when i hit when i hit 10 um

But since then, it seems like in terms of usability, I've not seen a single person complain about it. And it seems like it's a solid...

So I kind of get it and I kind of go all the way to 100. It feels like to me it clearly has market beta. So I think it will trade with Bitcoin and it won't be one of these alts that's left stuck in the mud. It's clearly going to move up and down with markets, I think. So I do think I would put hype. If you're looking for altcoins, I would put hype as one of my picks in that bucket. I don't own any personally, but...

I would have that as one of my picks now, I think. And I feel like that's the first time I've ever said that about Hyperliquid. Obviously, at the highs, but just my perception of it has changed. And again, with the whole James Wynn stuff, all his trading was on Hyperliquid, all his liquidations were on Hyperliquid. It's really capturing a lot of attention. He's probably going to make a ton of money from the next airdrop, right? From the crazy risk he's taken. But yeah, that I think is an interesting...

Well, I don't think he's going to make 100 million. But yeah, it is true that it's been at the forefront, I think, of people's minds. Obviously, this trade that got liquidated has been doing his trades on Hyperliquid. And that's been a very strong marketing. You could say the fact that he got liquidated maybe isn't the best marketing, but Hyperliquid is definitely capturing attention. That's for certain. A lot of big trades are being put on there. He had

He was long 1.2 billion Bitcoin at one stage. So it's good to see that there is kind of a competitor to Binance and Coinbase and all these other big exchanges when it comes to that from the decentralized realm, let's say. I would say that here, a 2X would put it close to like Solana's market cap. It would really...

put into question that FDV. A current market cap, it's much lower because a lot of it is still held by the foundation. But... What is the current market cap? I need to check, but... Yeah. I think, obviously, if it's 2X, you're talking about a market cap of close to $70 billion. So on an FDV, that's high, I would say. That's high.

I think it's a good trade. I... I've sold some this week. A large bit of what I'd owned this week. Just because I felt as though

That trade can still happen, but maybe everyone was piling into it this week. It's like, this is the thing to own. And I generally don't like... I like owning crypto when it feels like nobody owns it and it's a pain trade rather than when everyone owns it and it's like the consensus trade. And I feel like hype became a bit more consensus this week, right? Everyone was like, oh, this is the thing to own. So I think it's a really good platform. It's done very, very well. I just think it needs a period here of like...

consolidation, let's say, because it's not cheap anymore, or at least it's gone from being cheap to maybe not being cheap. It does feel as though you've seen a weakness across the board and a lot of the more risky stuff, though, like the AI coins are way back down again. The meme coins are way back down again. You've seen, particularly on Solana, I think, are you worried a little bit here about Solana and the fact that a lot of the more risky coins are Solana-based, like BART coin heading back to like $1 billion here?

ai 16z back to 240 million and yet coins like spx have gone above 1 billion and look pretty comfy do you think you think the market is maybe caught off side there a little bit on on what to own in the risky bits of the market do you think that they're too solana exposed i don't know if it's like too solana exposed like i feel like

Fart coin maybe started out as Solana beta, but I think it's just its own sort of meme coin now, really. I don't feel like anyone is buying fart coin thinking, oh, this is like good Sol beta. I'm going to outperform Sol. I think they're just looking at it as a meme coin in the set of meme coins and seeing it as a potential leader of it. Kind of like Pepe. And Pepe actually does move a lot with the youth, to be fair.

But I also think most people are just in Pepe for the meme coin itself rather than for the youth exposure. So I'm not too concerned about that stuff. I do think what these coins are showing, the same is just true for Pepe, actually, because that's moved up aggressively and down aggressively. I think what these coins are showing is they do have

a very high beta to the market. And, you know, Fartcoin is up a lot. Remember, it was traded as low as like 250 mil market cap. So even at the current price, one bill, it's up 5x off the lows. And that's a significant outperformance versus many other meme coins. There are very few other like, you know, nine figure market cap meme coins that went on and 5x, you know, back, not close to that close to all time highs, but like, you know, had a decent bounce off the bottom. So,

When you have something like that, when you have these pullbacks, it will move down very aggressively as well because lots of people are in the money in a big way and they're taking profits. So I'm not that worried. I think it's just going to be like a very volatile coin going forward. And again,

I mentioned at the beginning of the show, I think if you have Dry Powder, now is a good time to add risk and alts and memes. And Fartcoin would be another thing that would be on my list as well. Fartcoin and Hype. But that's a big, decent drop in Fartcoin. That's down from 1.6 to 1. So there's a pretty hefty backup there.

Yeah, I just noticed this from the last 12 months that all the major coins, I know Pepe and Margot and Rekt, I would say, is their own type of thing, but it feels as though a lot of the risk-taking happened on Solana. And Solana is the consensus chain for risk-taking. But if that changes at all, we've seen that with like these NFTs, they can almost underperform even more because people get worried about

than being an ETH exposure. You know what I mean? And part of me does think that the biggest risk to even like trades and things can do really well, like Farcoin is that they are Solana beta or they're perceived in some way as Solana beta.

you know, CryptoPunks is a great trade, but I think it got lost in ETH to a certain extent. And if Solana faces any sort of a challenge here, I think it is a bit of a worry. Hype is one angle and then ETH is kind of the other. And it has been underperforming this week. And I think we've picked up on that relatively early. And I've been vocal that I moved a lot of my Solana exposures to ETH here, but

If that continues, I would be worried for that bit of the market. I do think people are maybe underestimating how much these things can underperform if people get worried about the actual chain itself. And I'm, you know, I'm a big fan of Solana, but it is worth noting that a lot of this stuff feels like Solana beta on the bad days. It really does. Like Farcoin has had a really bad, basically, couple of weeks.

After having a very good few months or a couple of months, but you can tell that part of that is just like, is Solana a trade, right? People are a little bit worried about that being the main trade. So what have you bought then? You mentioned that you had started adding risk yesterday or today. What are you looking at? Like just Bitcoin or alts or majors or? I've been buying ETH. I've been buying ETH. Like, I think that is for me,

It is one of the better trades here. From a risk-reward standpoint, from a sleep-adjusted return standpoint, I feel as though ETH is in a good spot. It's suddenly now trading above its 200-day moving average. You have companies coming out and saying, hey, we're going to do the ETH treasury strategy for the first time. And I think that will grow because it's very easy to do with the ETFs.

And I think after Pektra, it had a bit of a, you know, it's got this ultrasound money bit back to it. I just think it, whenever ETH goes higher,

I just think it's a pain trade. Like ETH going to 4K and Solana staying where it is, I think is a massive pain trade for this market. And that's generally how, you know, people are asked how we trade. That's how I think we look at things. We look at where we think the most pain can get caused often by a trade. And then when that lines up with a good fundamental thesis, I think it can work. And for me, I think ETH can go to 3K pretty easily here and maybe even push on from there.

And, um, and I've been adding that, you know, my bags are mainly Bitcoin and I moved it from Solana to ETH or ETH exposure, but on this dip, I've been buying ETH and ETH exposure. So it's been, it's been ETH and some ETH memes as well. Um,

And you can see that's where the strength is. Like SPX going back above a billion, I think it's very noticeable. Pepe's been down a little bit today, but it's been relatively strong. Mog's been a bit weaker today, I would say. It's one I've been buying. But even Rex, you know, Rex has stayed very strong for a meme. And I think part of that is also like it's been seen as like a really emerging ETH meme or ETH

trade here and i think people like that so i um yeah that's what that's what i'm buying there i'm back up for like 80 let's say of max risk and if we go lower i would buy more if i don't this is a market where i'm worried in any way not really that worried about the tariff stuff i think i've kind of come to your sort of view here but everything gets sensationalized a little bit here and um

I think Bitcoin could hang out at like 104K for the next week or so, but I think it could outperform. I don't want to miss that rally to like three, maybe even three and a half quay. Yeah, I like that. I personally agree with your need. And I think as soon as it hits 3K, people are really going to start foaming again. That's my view. Because I think once you get back to 3K or above, people seem to have more confidence in like, oh shit, like,

this thing is back and the right people are pushing it and it has regained a narrative. And then people sort of like do the maths and look at ETHBTC and think, oh, wow, there's still, even at 3K, it's still whatever it is, like 60 or 70% below where it should be, where it should be in terms of that relationship. And that, I mean, if ETHBTC was back to the highs, it would put ETH at like 7K now, I think, something like that, which is a huge difference.

move from where it is now. It's a tripling in its level. I really like that as a player and I do really like perceived ETH betas to play that. I think it's really interesting. If we do have a proper alt season here, which is another thing I believe in, that whole ecosystem is really going to get moving, I think. I think we're over the dark days. You can tell we're over the dark days because when we bring it up, you don't just laugh in my face anymore. Yeah.

I brought it up because I always said that we'd have the moment where we felt like that could shift. And I think that this, maybe that's where I'm okay as a trader when I can tell when like an area could just suddenly shift it. I just feel like the market is suddenly offside. You know, the worst performers of the top 300 coins over the last week are Fartcoin, Bonk, Radium. That says a lot. You know, that tells you that like,

The market is very long Solana exposure. And if that, I think it can really cause some damage. And I like all those three trades, but it just feels as though positioning can drive so much of a performance. And I just feel like the positioning is off here. So if I'm going to be long, I think the best risk reward is in the, in the each stuff. And I think the pain trade is that, is that to go higher.

It does feel as though my guess here is that we could spend another week in this sort of limbo. Altcoin seasons we spoke about before, they last for like four weeks. Would you even call this an altcoin season yet? Like we have that brief dip from 65 to 40.

62.5% of Bitcoin dominance and now we're back to 64%. Is this what we have for an altcoin season these days? 2% moving Bitcoin dominance or do you think we're still waiting for a proper altcoin season? How do you mean exactly? I would say, do you think altcoin season has started? That's an important question here because then you start the clock on

You have like four to eight weeks of it happening. And if you don't think it's even started, then maybe we can wait. I think we're at the beginning of it. I really do. I think Bitcoin dominance has topped. I think you started to see this move in ops over the last couple of weeks. And I think the mistake people make is when you have a day like today, everyone thinks, oh, it's all over, it's dead.

What you have to remember, and I'm going back to 2021, which I still believe was the last true alt season, is even in the middle of it, when things were going crazy, you'd have days where stuff would be up 100%, 200% on big market cap coins. Then you'd have days when they'd be down 30%, 40%, 50%. And then they'd go back up again, like 100%. It was like crazy volatility, right? So we've seen a decent rally off the lows in many coins. We've now seen a decent pullback.

It doesn't mean it's over just because you have one pullback. I mean, oh, it's not happening anymore and we're moving on from it. I think you will get pullbacks naturally. Like there are going to be pullbacks. And I think those rallies and pullbacks are going to start to get more aggressive. But, um,

people can like kill themselves in all season trading around because you're chasing momentum and you're like oh man this thing's up so much i've got to like jump in and buy then it crashes anything oh fuck it's over i'm going to sell it then it rips back up again you have to really really train yourself to like buy lows and sell highs if you're trying to trade it or buy lows if you're trying to deploy capital and um that's the thing i think is uh

is tricky to do but I think we're at the beginning of it because I think we're seeing we're seeing BTC dominance top seeing ETH starting to rally you're seeing movement and momentum and you're seeing well not more importantly but also important you're seeing a lot of people talk about it like I'd say my timeline is split 50-50 between people who believe in it's happening versus people who don't but a few months ago that was probably like you know 75% of people not thinking it would ever happen again potentially and

And I think there are some smart people out there who I respect and Raoul included who believe in this as a realistic possibility. And the way I see it is like, whether it happens or not is different to whether you want to take the bet or not, right?

If we are at the start of this and you do have a proper alt season like 2021, you see Bitcoin dominance drop to 60, 55, 50. It will drop all the way to 40% in 2021. You will see coins, and I'm not just talking about low caps. I'm talking about coins with already billions of dollars in market cap. You'll see that stuff 10x. You'll see a huge move in that total three market cap.

And that upside is huge. And let's say we don't get an alt season, but we still rally and Bitcoin leads the way, then fine, maybe alt's underperformed, but you're not going to lose a ton of money. And then let's say we have this great big sell-off, but then you're bearish. You're not believing that anyway. So the upside downside for me is you have to play for the alt season. You have to take that risk. And even if it doesn't happen, if you're someone who's bullish and you don't get an alt season, your worst case scenario is you've been in an asset that has underperformed the best performer.

But the other side, and it depends how you assign that probability, but even if you're assigning like a 10% probability to all season, you should still have some positioning for it because when it happens, it will move very aggressively and you don't want to be in a position where shit's up 500% and you're like, fuck, I missed it. Now it's all season. Should I be buying here? And that's when it starts to get dicey because that's when you start having this like crazy price action, which is going to, you know, going to kill it basically. Yeah.

Yeah, I think I agree with that. I think to be clear though, it does kind of match up with a little bit of what we saw with the global liquidity three-month lag chart or the 10-week lag chart. We did see a little bit of a dip around this sort of time. So it kind of matches up, but we could hang around here at like 105, 104K, let's say on Bitcoin, maybe even down to like 103, 102. But it does feel as though the trend after that would be pretty aggressively higher. So

Even if you're following, you know, I don't need to think, I just need to follow global liquidity here, then this does kind of match up with what he's been saying. And I agree that people are perhaps throwing away the concept of an altcoin season or at least just eat out performing here a little bit too early. I think that's been the dominant narrative for a long, long time. But I do think that this could last for a few weeks here of...

At least until Bitcoin can go higher, but I do think some of the altcoins can do better. I don't know if it will translate into the really left curve stuff. Just because I said with the Solana, I'm less constructive right now. I think that's a big risk for a lot of the left curve stuff. You've got to be very, very wary that Bitcoin going higher, I don't think necessarily means like...

bar coin goes higher or virtuals goes higher or um ai16z goes higher it feels as though that that correlation isn't is not going to be as strong but um but i do think it can mean a lot of e-theta goes higher that's that's just my call uh happens um

Anything else you've seen this week that's been interesting? I think we've seen the other big move has been InfoFi. I don't know if you guys, you've been paying attention to this at all, but this has been the rise of the...

the mind share sort of platforms. Kito has been the biggest one and you see a huge number of airdrops and kind of, let's say benefits to people in that sort of ecosystem. This is, this is kind of like the payments layer for attention, you would say. And Kito has been the main, the,

platform for that. They basically give out rewards for users that tweet about different projects. And to a large extent, that's dominated the narrative in crypto recently. You've seen Laudio has been a very, very big beneficiary of this over the last few days. But what do you think of this InfoFi trend? It's kind of taken the mantle from internet capital markets as the main thing in crypto at the moment.

Are you fading it or do you think it's something that's going to last? It's a funny one with InfoFi because there aren't really that many trades you can put on to express it right now. We've gone through these methods of AI, internet capital markets, meme coins, animal coins, all this stuff. And there are usually loads of coins in those sectors, if you like, where you can buy and sell. With InfoFi, there's really two coins. There's cookie coins.

and kaito and i guess you know there's some other stuff that's coming like laudio etc um i think it's i think it's i think it's interesting and i think it's something that will grow a lot bigger because um coins in crypto and not just coins to be honest with you any asset things often trade on attention and speculation and being able to create technology to drive certain attention to tokens i think

should be powerful. And if you're kind of like owning the tech, if you're owning the shovels or owning the tech, that should be something that's worth quite a lot, I think. So I think, I do think it's interesting. I think it's here to stay. What I do think, however, is I know with Kaito, for example, people talk a lot about like, oh, you know, these guys make a ton of revenue because projects will go over to Kaito, we'll pay them a certain fee and then they get on board with the platform and then, you know, they'll have,

trying to tweet about it and create content about it in order to earn points. And that business model I think works. The problem is it's a very high cost and revenues for them right now are very high. The problem is it's very easy to replicate, have competitors and basically strip away those costs. It's very easy to create a decentralized version of it. So there's no cost at all. And the other problem is like for them to grow and scale,

the more projects you have that come on, the less attractive it becomes for new projects to jump on because your attention then becomes diluted with other projects compared to if there's just one or two projects on there. So I have a feeling that like, you know, right now I think it's, it feels new and it's all very well polished. And I think people love it because you can earn basically free money from tweeting about stuff and anything where you can earn free money, I think is a good business model. But I think,

My hunch is the market caps of some of this stuff will come lower over time because I think you will see, I think the whole space will grow massively, but you will see a lot more competition and you will see costs for people who want to earn that engagement go down materially. And as a result, you'll see the revenues of these platforms go down materially as well.

I saw an interesting tweet the other day, which is like, we haven't created anything new in crypto for many years. Kaito is just undisclosed paid chills done in a different way. And we've started to see a return of even the ICO platform with Echo, with Kobe's platform.

Do you think that's what it is? Do you think we're just like, we get caught up with these narratives and they're really just old narratives being created again? It kind of feels like that a little bit here with crypto. Even with internet capital markets, it feels like ICO is done in a different way. And now it feels like with InfoFi, we've tried a lot of different times to make this work. This feels like the most professional way of doing it, but it doesn't necessarily feel like we're

we're really advancing crypto with this sort of stuff. I think it's sort of mixed. I think there's a combination of these being genuine attempts to solve inefficiencies that do exist. You know, like page hills is probably a very inefficient market. Maybe this is a way to make it more efficient and also, you know, kind of like make it more transparent as well in some ways too, because, you know, everyone can see the numbers, right? So I think it's, it is an attempt to solve efficiencies. I think, yeah,

The internet capital markets thing, I think, is a scam, to be honest with you, in my opinion. I just think every coin that's come onto it... I looked at some of the stuff which were apparently in app stores, went to download the app in the app stores, and the apps don't even work. And people are there talking on Twitter about how this is the next big thing. So they'll be like, oh, this guy has one of the biggest newsletters in tech, and he's the co-founder of this thing with this random guy who no one's ever heard of, but apparently has...

you know, some credentials. And, you know, these guys are literally, at least with meme coins, no one is pretending it's something that it's not, but these guys are literally basically lying, knocking up some quick, like sketches of apps and flogging them and then, you know, monetizing it very quickly and then moving on to the next thing. So I do think internet capital markets is a scam. And I think a large part of the ICO market was a scam and it's very similar. It's just another way of dressing it up. And there's probably something that's just being pushed by like,

you know, the big dogs at Solana, right? And it is because I see them tweet about it, the founders tweet about it. They're trying to find use cases for their networks and they're trying to make things take off because that's what generates activity. I think for the most part, it's a scam. I think I agree with you. I feel as though it's... That exact thing has been repackaged a lot of different times. And every single time it feels like

it feels like Silicon Valley comes in and just kind of takes a slice of crypto and then moves on. Yeah. We've seen it with EFTs, even with meme coins a little bit, and now we've seen it with this. So I'd be very worried about that sort of stuff. Right. Should we move to questions? It feels as though it was a slightly maybe quieter week, but it'd be good to get to hearing from the community a little bit. Yeah. So first question I have here from Brett.

What ETH betas are you liking? Do you have any thoughts on Eigen, Uni, or Aero? What are your thoughts there? I think the main winner from ETH beta, let's say, in DeFi has been Aave, just because they've been a huge rise in their TVL. I would...

I'd be a little bit wary of Uni because I don't think they're going to do the fee switch anytime soon. I think the cleanest ETH beta are really in the meme coins just because, as I've just said before, where I feel like the market is really offside is in the

is in the gambling bit of the market. And I think that that's really just been on Solana. And if any sniff of that returns to ETH, I think it can really send some of these ETH memes parabolic. And there's far fewer of them. So I like, if I'm going to buy ETH beta right now, I buy ETH memes. I agree. I think for me, ETH memes will still be the best beta for ETH.

The problem with L2s and stuff like Eigen layer, there's so many of them. Which one do you pick? Like, why should Eigen be the one to rally instead of Optimism, instead of Arbitrum, instead of other stuff? Instead of Blast? Instead of Abstract when it comes? Like, there's just so many L2s. Can all of them rally? I don't know. I think, like, I'd rather own ETH than the L2s right now. Eigen 3 staking, right? It's not L2s. It's a restaking. I'm sorry. Yeah, it's a restaking. Yeah, I pressed call. But...

There are a lot of two, I would agree with you. Which are also... Yeah. I just think ETH DeFi, I'm not sure if it's under-owned. I still think people own a lot of ETH DeFi, let's put it that way. What else is there apart from... I guess Lido would be another one. Is that similar to...

So I can lay, I can lay, what'd you say? Yeah, I would say that. I mean, Lido is like staking and then I can lay as the main restaking platform. Um, if beta is always very difficult because I think people who have generally gone for that as a trade have been really destroyed. Um,

Honestly, I think the best trade here is just ETH. I know that might sound boring to people, but I think the best trade is just ETH. And then if you want to add an extra bit of beta to it, I would only add memes. I would not buy L2s or staking or restaking platforms thinking that they will move with ETH. Without Uniswap or Aerodrome as indexes?

I just think that's a really risky trade. And I think the easiest one is just to own ETH. Have we kind of seen how Medium has performed despite having a ton of activity, right? Perfect example. Perfect example. Yeah. Unless there's some sort of fee switch that gets turned on there, but it's tough to just sit and hope on a trade like that. But I agree with you. Have you ever looked at QNT, quant? That's the next question from Neil. You've got some quant. It's not something that I've personally looked at.

I haven't. I haven't. I know it's been, it's been a good performer, but I haven't looked at it. Can we move on to the next one? It's not one that I've looked at either, but I'll take a look after the show. Next question from Chris the Tramp. Love that username. Okay. Would you sell alts now for a bigger dip or would you hold and wait for gains?

I think we both said that we think that there could be a bit of an altcoin season. I'd be very wary in thinking the altcoin season is the same as the last altcoin season. That's basically what I've been saying here is that I think people own Solana alts, and I think that is actually a very risky trade here. So know which alt you own. Last year, there was an altcoin season that just affected Beamcoins. Here, I feel as though you could be...

And this is just my view, but I think you could be offside if you were in Solana alts. I think, yeah, I just reiterate, I think now's a good time to actually buy alts rather than sell them. And I think I'm a bit more aggressive in my view that I think we'll just see like a crazy altcoin season and squeeze over summer. And then next question from Francisco, if OSF's lovely summer of risk comes to pass,

what signs are you watching to tell when it's coming to an end for me? Um, it's hard to put a number on it, but I think it's a situation where you'll see pretty high leverage. I think you'll see open interest go up a lot and it will be after things have moved in like a crazy fashion. Like the, you know, every $100 million token would be a billion dollar token, et cetera, et cetera. And, um,

It's just one of those max greed points. The fear and greed index would probably be a good thing to track then when you're close to max greed. That's the point at which I think it's probably coming to an end. The way that I intend to play it, if it does play out, is have some return targets and stuff. I've tried to pick stuff that I think has 5x to 10x potential and take some off at 5x, take a decent amount off at 10x, and then you ride your moon bags. That's kind of

how I'm thinking about it really. You know, the other thing to look at there also is probably like the global liquidity chart as well. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we have crazy alt season, then I wouldn't be surprised if you start to see that US money supply go down, but everyone's still saying, oh, we don't care about the chart. We don't believe in it. I think this is going to keep going higher and higher and higher. And that's like the greed that comes in. And then it wouldn't be surprised to see everything crash. That's another thing I would also keep an eye on. And I think like, again, Julian,

is really on top of all that stuff. So I'd just be carefully, you know, carefully watching everything he, he, he comment, commentates on. Yeah, but that's it for me too. I think I'm looking at double liquidity. I mean, there are certain moments you just know being here day in, day out when James Wynn has got a billion point,

1.2 billion of Bitcoin long for CX leverage. You're like, this feels a bit frothy. Like that doesn't happen at the bottom. That happens closer towards the top. And that's why naturally you go like, right, this makes sense that we could go a little bit lower. I tweeted out this week, you know, I think we're going lower. I think you're meant to buy it. Like, I don't think we're at the end of this move yet.

Um, but I think it, it felt naturally like we were going to see some wind come out the sails of this rally. And I think you should use these opportunities, like these, these moments and opportunity that if you're, if you aren't fully invested, like we weren't, then this can be like, wow, I can really get to that sort of stage where I am. Um, you know, Farquhar was trading at like 1.6 billion a few weeks ago. Um, yeah.

a week ago even, right? Like a big, big move. Like, um, so I think you can get into a lot of good trades here at much lower, much lower levels. And when people suddenly feel that fear about them and whenever there's that fear in the market, you should think like, thank God, like I've got that opportunity to get in, you know?

That's all crypto is. So this week, I've been very thankful for it because I wasn't fully invested, as we spoke about last week. And now suddenly I get a bite of a cherry. And I think I can get myself up to 100% invested if this continues. I'm honest. I don't think this move is going to end. I agree. Okay, next question, also from Francisco.

Thoughts on the recent outperformance by Jupiter and Syrup. How well is Jupiter? Because you've been talking about Solana alts not doing well, but how is Jupiter? Jupiter's done well. It definitely outperformed versus it had a long period of underperformance there. I think Jupiter probably has the best complete offering of Solana DeFi.

out there right now. And I think it's going to be moving into a range of different things, which is mainly around tokenization, but also like a different platform for like spot, which I think could make it very, very strong. I would say that I wouldn't want to have my bags in Solana DeFi right now. That's just something that I'm just...

I'm just wary of because Solana DeFi is the layer of activity above Solana, and it's very exposed to mean points. It's extremely exposed to mean points. And if you see a dip in mean point activity there, I think it's a big worry. So Jupiter's done very, very well. It's probably that and Radium, I think, are the standouts for Solana DeFi.

It's not where I want to own right now in terms of like, remember, you should always think, am I going to outperform Bitcoin with this? Am I going to outperform Bitcoin? It's the only reason to own any alt ever. And Solana DeFi from a top-down perspective, I don't think it's going to outperform DeFi. I don't think it's going to outperform Bitcoin. An interesting follow-up question then from that is from Jordan. Do you still have JLP? Is that something that you still own and like in this current environment?

I love JLP. I think JLP is one of the best assets in crypto. If you just want to sit there and own nothing else, it does have a high amount of Solana exposure. And if you remember back at like 110 on Solana, 120, I moved it to Bitcoin. Remember, I was a big JLP maxi and I moved it all to Bitcoin because I preferred Bitcoin as a trade. I have not moved it back to JLP because I've just preferred Bitcoin as an asset here.

And I think that's generally been a good call. But JLP is, you look at the sharp ratio of that thing, it's like insane. If you don't want to have to think about too much, you can own JLP. Interestingly, also, there's a platform on Solana called Drift.

which is a platform. And you can deposit JLP into that platform. And you can actually short Solana and go more along Bitcoin. So if you don't like the actual makeup of JLP, because it's highly exposed to Solana, you can effectively create a version of JLP, which is more exposed to Bitcoin. It's something that I've done in the past. I think that's an interesting trade. Yeah, that's quite interesting too. So you basically have...

majority Bitcoin exposure but you benefit from the yield yeah the yield stuff as well um cool that that brings it brings us um to the end of the questions um

So if we can finish a little bit early. Before we head off, I just want to shout out our partners, Arch Public. We were supposed to have them on tape, but I believe they're living at large at Bitcoin Vegas. Vegas. Yeah, exactly. So again, I highly recommend checking it out. We're getting some volatility now, so I'm sure this thing is doing well. Billvision.com forward slash Arch.

there is a free tier which you guys will have access to. So please do spend a couple of minutes to check it out. And before we head out, we'll give you guys a quick question. Please comment back on wherever you're watching. How much of a problem do you think tariff uncertainty will be for crypto? Let us know what you think. And with that, I think we can wrap it up and we can let you get on with the rest of your day, Michael. Those were exciting questions.

Brits abroad type style trip. We'll be... I'm in Poland, indeed. For Stag. Well, the Stag begins now. Let's put it that way. We'll be back next Friday at the usual time, 11.30am Eastern Time, 4.30pm British Summer Time. I hope everyone has a great weekend and we will see you next week.

If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready?

Thank you.

Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus 500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.