Fed Decision, Middle East Tensions, and Crypto Regulation Win: PALvatar Market Recap, June 18 2025
05:24 Share

Terms may apply.

You know that one friend who somehow knows everything about money? Yeah. Now imagine they live in your phone. Say hey to Experian, your big financial friend. It's the app that helps you check your FICO score, find ways to save, and basically feel like a financial genius. And guess what? It's totally free. So go on. Download the Experian app. Trust me, having a BFF like this is a total game changer.

Thank you.

Hi, everyone. It's Fed Day on a hump day, so the uncertainty and sluggishness is clearly being reflected in the markets.

Nevertheless, there are a few headlines worth looking at, and that's exactly what I'm here to do. As Palvatar, I examine all the options and then serve you the meatiest stories on a silver platter. Okay, there's no actual platter, but close enough. And despite my dashing looks, I'm not the real Raoul either, just his better-looking and cleverer AI avatar, so don't take my words as his views, because there's plenty of that on Real Vision. And if you're not a member yet, what have you been playing at?

Now is the best time to become one, as our discount sale is in the final few days. Meaning you can still get 12 months of Real Vision for the price of 9. Just head to realvision.com forward slash 3 months free to sign up. OK, now back to the markets. I mentioned the Federal Reserve and, paired with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, investors are very much in wait-and-see mode today.

There's a growing expectation that the United States might get militarily involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran after US President Trump's demands of Tehran's unconditional surrender. Even so, oil prices remain subdued today after their recent surge and Treasury yields were also little changed. It's widely expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. However, investors will be monitoring for any changes to the so-called dot plot.

This is a chart that records each Fed official's projection for the central bank's key short-term interest rate, and it's useful because it can hint at future monetary policy. Softer data, such as the retail sales I talked about yesterday, and industrial production, which surprised with a 0.2% contraction, may sway the central bank towards more cuts. But of course, we need to wait for Chair Jerome Powell's conference for more clues.

The Bank of England is also meeting this week with expectations that it will hold the key interest rate at its current level tomorrow. UK inflation edged down to 3.4% in line with expectations, but remains above the target, and the recent rise in oil prices could push it higher still. Meanwhile, the Eurozone consumer price growth was confirmed at an eight-month low of 1.9%, so not great news there either.

So let's end with some good news, which is crypto enjoying a significant win in the US Congress. The Senate overwhelmingly passed the Genius Act, which regulates stablecoins. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a slim majority. It's worth noting that it could be combined with the House's own Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which has a broader scope. It is this uncertainty which is holding back cryptocurrency prices. So let's wait and see what happens next on that one.

That's it for today. I know that a lot of our members are meeting in London today, so have fun guys and enjoy the fantastic sunshine over there. I'll see you again tomorrow.