Geopolitical Tensions, Bitcoin Breakout, and European PMI Surprises: PALvatar Market Recap, June 23 2025
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Hi everyone, a very warm welcome to all the people who have recently joined Real Vision.

With shit hitting the fan in the Middle East once again, Real Vision is the place to distill the signal from the noise. You can count on Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenwald to do just that on today's Macro Mondays. I'm Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, here to deliver you the latest market recap. Looks like it's going to be a busy week, so make sure you tune in regularly. Let's jump into it. Just remember that this is not reflective of the views of the real Raoul.

It's no surprise that geopolitics is once again in the driver's seat, following the surprise US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz saw prices briefly hit a five-month high. There's also bolstered demand for safe haven assets like the US dollar. As for digital assets, Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000 after falling below the key psychological level for the first time since early May.

Coindesk reports that some $1 billion in leverage was liquidated over the weekend. Clearly those guys didn't listen to Raoul's "don't fuck this up" mantra. Also, the crypto IPO trend shows no sign of abating. The information reports that Exchange OKEx is the latest one to consider going public in the US. We've also got quite a lot of new economic data from Europe, so let's pass through it.

Germany's composite PMI, which combines services and manufacturing, unexpectedly rose to 50.4 in June from May's 48.5. As the reading is above 50, it marks a return to growth driven by stronger manufacturing output, despite ongoing contraction within services. Britain's composite PMI also surprised to the upside, with a reading of 50.7 in June. This was driven by new orders growing for the first time since November, among other factors.

On the other hand, activity continued to decline across both sectors in France, with manufacturing activity falling sharply below expectations. According to the S&P, the June flash composite PMI stood at 48.5 points, down from 49.3 in May. We'll get PMI readings for the US today. That's it for now. Remember to listen to the Macro Mondays. Take care and see you tomorrow.

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