Geopolitical Tensions, China’s Mixed Data, and Fed Rate Outlook: PALvatar Market Recap, June 16 2025
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Hi, everyone. Hope you had a good weekend because it's shaping up to be a busy week. But worry not, you're in the right place to make sure you remain up to speed on what's happening in the markets.

Just bear in mind that as Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, I'll provide you with the latest facts. But if you're looking for in-depth analysis and the views of the real Raoul, you'll need to check his Real Vision content. Also, remember that you only have until Friday to take advantage of the promotion that we're having on memberships. You can get 12 months of Real Vision access for the price of nine. And all you have to do is head to realvision.com forward slash three months free.

Alright, let's get into the latest market news. Geopolitics remain front and centre as Israel and Iran continue to exchange a barrage of missiles, but investors are in a wait-and-see mode at the moment.

Global stocks have shown resilience, even as oil prices continued to climb after last week's 13% increase, albeit much more modestly. Gold was down this morning after rising to the highest level since late April, while currencies of countries and regions that are oil exporters, such as the US, strengthened.

By contrast, those that mostly import oil, such as the EU and Japan, weakened. Elsewhere, China's industrial production growth slowed to 5.8% in May, missing expectations of 5.9%. Additionally, fixed asset investment rose by only 3.7% year-on-year between January and May, also below market forecasts. New home prices also declined for the 23rd consecutive month, but at a slower pace than previously.

The one bright spot was retail sales, which grew at 6.4%, beating expectations. Looking ahead this week, central bank meetings are set to dominate attention. Notably, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with the inflationary spike in oil prices firming up that view. We'll have retail sales tomorrow and initial jobless claims on Wednesday, rather than Thursday, as usual, due to a holiday.

The Bank of Japan will also announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow without any anticipated changes due to ongoing uncertainties around trade. And of course, if you want to get a breakdown of potential scenarios on the geopolitical front and how to position accordingly as an investor, make sure you tune in to Macro Monday on Real Vision. That's it for today, and I'll be with you again tomorrow with the latest news recap.