German Growth Surprise, UK Retail Boom, and Japan’s Inflation Spike: PALvatar Market Recap, May 23 2025
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Well, what a week it's been with a revamp of memberships on Real Vision, Bitcoin hitting an all-time high, Andreas Steno's new show Macro Meets Micro, and Raoul absolutely ripping into American food and drinks in his AMA. This is a safe space, though, belonging to a much more civilized palvitar. I may be Raoul's AI avatar, but I will not mock anyone's cuisine. Except for the Brits, of course. They don't have a cuisine. Just kidding. There's nothing wrong with fish and chips and mushy peas in a beer-stained pub on a Friday.

Anyway, let's cut the fat and get into the final market recap of the week. Just remember that what I say is not intended to represent the real Raoul's views. Watch his AMA or Insider Talks if you're a pro member from yesterday to find out what he's thinking. The German economy produced a surprise, with the final numbers confirming it expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter. That's an upgrade from initial estimates of 0.2% and a rebound from contraction at the end of last year.

The number was driven by increased household consumption and exports. Another European economy that has been better than expected lately is the UK. Retail sales rose 1.2% in April, way ahead of expectations, thanks to the sunniest April in the UK on record. Yes, it really didn't rain much. Nothing like a bit of sunshine to open up the wallets, right? Anyway, sales volumes increased by 1.8% in the three months to April, the largest such increase in nearly four years.

Separate data showed that UK consumer confidence rose three points to minus 20 in May as tariff-related concerns eased. In the United States, the progress of President Trump's tax bill is raising alarms about fiscal sustainability. The dollar is on track for a lower weekly close against other major currencies for the first time in five weeks, and Treasury yields remain elevated amid fears that increasing government borrowing will lead investors to demand higher returns.

Turning to Asia, Japan's inflation figures showed core prices rising at their fastest pace since early 2023 at 3.5%. This has prompted speculation regarding potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan amidst ongoing trade tensions with the US. OK guys, thanks for bearing with us this week as we migrate all of our members to the new tier structure. Remember that if you're having any issues with your Real Vision subscription, contact Milton at realvision.com.

Before I go, just a heads up that you won't hear from me on Monday, as the team that makes me sound so real and cool is off for a holiday. I'll see you again on Tuesday. Have a great weekend.