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cover of episode Iran Tensions Trigger Global Alarm | Macro Mondays (June 23, 2025)

Iran Tensions Trigger Global Alarm | Macro Mondays (June 23, 2025)

2025/6/23
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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A
Andreas Steno
M
Mikkel Rosenvold
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Andreas Steno: 我认为我们已经度过了过去24小时的“第三次世界大战”恐慌高峰,但实际上并没有太多实质内容。市场对地缘政治风险事件的反应是教科书式的,周末的恐慌导致预测市场预测霍尔木兹海峡将被封锁,但我认为这不太可能。伊朗议会的投票并不真正重要,最终决定权在于最高领导人。我认为霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的可能性远低于30%。这次事件的最大赢家是沙特阿拉伯,他们正在慢慢恢复其市场份额。目前的石油价格走势可以被视为石油价格中的某种保险费,因为供应实际上还可以。只要不升级为中东供应的彻底崩溃,沙特阿拉伯就处于有利位置。霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的风险被大大高估了,这是本周可以看涨的原因之一。石油价格已经见顶,更有可能跌至50美元,而不是100美元。如果能源价格在一段时间内保持在高位,通常会看到美元走强。美国军方的迅速有效干预通常被认为是美国风险资产的好消息。美国可能需要与中国合作,以确保霍尔木兹海峡不被关闭。鉴于这种情况,美国的风险资产领域看起来很有希望,中国的风险资产也如此。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 过去六个月非常疯狂,感觉《宏观周一》的每一集都几乎变成了特别节目或突发新闻节目。我们会尽量做到非常实用,给大家我们最好的交易想法。特朗普需要尽快解决伊朗问题,以避免在支持以色列问题上出现内部分歧。特朗普之所以在上周犹豫不决,是因为他收到了来自他自己运动内部的一些反对意见。如果反战运动能够将特朗普描绘成一个“花钱和轰炸”的共和党人,可能会给他的国内议程带来一些问题。如果特朗普的总统任期持续下去,可能会导致共和党内部出现真正的分裂。没有共和党候选人能够以亲战候选人的身份进入大选。封锁霍尔木兹海峡主要会是中国的问题。特朗普希望尽快结束与伊朗的谈判,这是一个糟糕的谈判方式。伊朗将对袭击进行报复,但美国希望看到迅速的协议。人们正在恐慌,这使得现在成为买入的时机。伊朗现在非常孤立,而以色列和美国正在解决很多问题。从愤世嫉俗的角度来看,以色列在中东真的清理了门户。西方的衰落被过分夸大了。石油输出国组织内部的凝聚力仍然非常分散。当一个价格联盟瓦解时,通常意味着更低的价格和更强的竞争。

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Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, Steno Research partner and head of geopolitics, to break down the latest news and forces driving global markets. From the Israel-Iran war to the future path of interest rate, they unpack how central bank policy and geopolitical factors are fueling volatility and shifts in market positioning.

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