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cover of episode Is Trump’s Plan Working? |  Mikkel Rosenvold &  Andreas Steno Larsen | Macro Mondays

Is Trump’s Plan Working? | Mikkel Rosenvold & Andreas Steno Larsen | Macro Mondays

2025/5/5
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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A
Andreas Steno Larsen
M
Milos Zonal
R
Raoul Pal
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Milos Zonal: 我对最近的ISM报告结果感到惊讶,美国经济的衰退速度低于预期,这表明经济衰退可能已经触底。 我们讨论了特朗普政府的关税政策对美国经济的影响,目前来看,经济数据虽然不算好,但也并非非常糟糕,这与大多数经济学家的预期有所不同。 这使得人们开始相信经济衰退可能已经触底,并且在过去的两三周内,我们已经看到了一些迹象。 Andreas Steno Larsen: 特朗普政府对外国电影征收100%的关税,这标志着美国首次尝试对跨境服务征税。这与以往对商品征税有所不同,因为电影的传播方式已经发生了变化,这使得征税变得更加复杂。 对电影征税的实际操作方法是根据制作公司的所在地来确定,这在经济上是罕见的,因为美国在电影服务贸易方面通常是盈余的。 这种做法可能具有象征意义和政治意义,因为它被视为是对那些观看欧洲电影的人(可能不支持特朗普)的一种税收。 台湾元兑美元汇率的突然波动可能是由于台湾寿险公司对美元敞口进行对冲造成的,也可能与美国政府试图通过操纵汇率来与中国进行贸易谈判有关。 美元走弱是特朗普政府想要的结果,目的是为了通过贸易谈判来削弱美元,并允许外国再次购买美国国债。 从中国到美国的集装箱运输量略有增加,表明对贸易谈判达成和解结果的乐观情绪正在增长。 美元被高估,特朗普政府正在努力解决这个问题,美元走弱对全球经济有利。美元走弱、油价下跌以及关税可能降低,对全球经济来说是一个积极的局面。 对美国云服务和人工智能的报复性关税是一个风险,这可能会促进欧洲数字基础设施的发展。 对数字服务进行报复性关税的风险依然存在,但特朗普政府可能正在试图将贸易战的重点转向国内政治。 共和党内部对特朗普政府的贸易政策存在分歧,对俄罗斯储备的制裁导致全球南方国家增加黄金储备。 当前的市场反弹是“最不受欢迎的反弹之一”,并且有可能会在夏季出现牛市行情,美联储可能在6月份降息。

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Shownotes Transcript

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, the company’s partner and head of geopolitics, to dissect whether Donald Trump’s trade war strategy is bearing fruit as China purchases U.S. Treasuries. Plus, they examine what sparked a sudden volatility spike in the New Taiwan dollar.

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