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cover of episode Macro Monday: Why Reciprocal Tariffs are GOOD News ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

Macro Monday: Why Reciprocal Tariffs are GOOD News ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

2025/2/17
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Andreas Steno Larsen
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Raoul Pal
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Andreas Steno Larsen: 我认为互惠关税有可能在全球范围内引发一场关税降低的竞争。特朗普明确表示,如果其他国家降低关税和增值税,美国可能会采取相应行动,甚至降低关税。我的分析是,特朗普的策略旨在创造一个更公平的全球贸易环境,因为目前美国商品出口时面临的平均关税高于进口关税。我相信,这种策略最终会带来积极的结果,尽管短期内可能会出现一些波动和谈判。特别是对于那些依赖向美国出口的国家来说,互惠关税可能更有利。当然,将增值税纳入关税计算对欧盟来说可能很棘手,因为增值税是国家层面的权力,欧盟很难统一降低。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 我认为美国和欧盟之间可能就关税、乌克兰和科技行业达成一揽子协议。特朗普正推动乌克兰在4月底前实现停火,并与俄罗斯进行认真谈判。欧洲可能通过派遣士兵到乌克兰来换取乌克兰不加入北约。此外,欧盟可能为避免美国关税,在科技领域做出让步,例如降低增值税或为大型科技公司提供特殊地位。这些让步虽然对欧盟来说是一个巨大的挫折,但可能是避免美国高额关税所必需的。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter introduces Macro Mondays, a show offering a sneak peek into Real Vision's analysis. It starts with a lighthearted discussion about the best haircuts in politics before transitioning into the main topic of reciprocal tariffs.
  • Introduction to Macro Mondays show
  • Lighthearted discussion about politicians' haircuts

Shownotes Transcript

🔥 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them.

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder, and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news in markets.

📣 This episode is brought to you by Bitwise Asset Management. Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the access they need. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and over 100 people in the US and Europe to help manage everything from ETFs to private alpha strategies to SMAs for large investors.

👉 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays

00:22 - Overview of Today’s Topics

01:03 - Upcoming Real Vision Shows & Guest Speakers

01:19 - The Best Haircuts in Politics? A Lighthearted Start

04:06 - Are Reciprocal Tariffs Actually Good for the Economy?

08:03 - Global Trade: Who Benefits from Lower Tariffs?

10:49 - Trump’s Ukraine Plan & Europe’s Role

12:20 - How Tariff Talks Are Impacting Markets

15:02 - The U.S. Deficit: Signs of Improvement?

18:03 - Gold Prices and Market Sentiment

20:44 - Are Gold Miners the Next Big Investment?

24:07 - Why the UK Economy Is Struggling

26:56 - Political Uncertainty & Trade Vulnerability in the UK

31:06 - Renewable Energy & Offshore Wind: Dead Industry?

33:00 - Rate Cuts & Liquidity: What to Expect in 2025

34:32 - Final Thoughts & Market Outlook

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