PCE Inflation, US-China Deal, and S&P 500 Comeback: PALvatar Market Recap, June 27 2025
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Hi everyone and thank fuck it's Friday. It's been another massive week and I know we're all tired and can't wait for the weekend. But I hope you have the energy for one more market recap from me. So one final push and then we all have a nice relaxing drink tonight. I reckon I'll be choosing a nice cold Albarino. What about you?

As for the market news, being Raoul's AI avatar, I'll make it nice and simple for you, just the key headlines and data. But if you're still hungry for more in-depth analysis and the views of the real Raoul, just watch his AMA with Julian Bittle that went out to pro members yesterday. Or if you're a cheapskate, you could wait for the drinks with Raoul session next week, which is free. Anyways, let's dig into it. Let's start with the latest inflation data.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE for short, is the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, and the headline figure just increased by 0.1% month over month, making it 2.3% year over year. Notably, Core PCE, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, rose slightly more than expected: 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.7% annualized.

The fact that this number keeps moving away from the Fed's 2% target could dissuade it from further rate cuts. We'll see if that jeopardizes the good sentiment that we saw earlier in the day. European stocks surged thanks to easing geopolitical tensions following the Israel-Iran ceasefire and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. US President Donald Trump said yesterday, without providing more details, that both nations signed an agreement

They've negotiated rare earth shipments and tariff reductions ahead of upcoming deadlines. In other news, the S&P 500 could hit a record high today after closing within touching distance yesterday. It would cap a remarkable turnaround for the index, which fell nearly 19% from its February record following the tariff introduction before staging this comeback in just four months. Talk about turning from a bear to a bull.

Meanwhile, persistent expectations surrounding potential Fed rate cuts continue to drag the value of the dollar deeper into its three-year low and continue to support other currencies like the euro. Elsewhere, oil prices could see their worst week in two years with a double-digit fall on the cards as fears of supply disruption evaporated thanks to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Rounding up with crypto, the government of Hong Kong has reaffirmed its intention to become a digital assets hub.

It has issued the second major policy statement on crypto, following one in 2022, and has promised to build a regulatory framework. Public consultations are set to begin shortly. Meanwhile, the ongoing XRP legal saga did not come to an expected conclusion. That's because the judge overseeing the SEC versus Ripple case actually rejected their settlement agreement to water down the ruling against Ripple.

Last but not least, Coinbase stock hit an all-time high, capitalizing on the cool-down in Circle's share price. Phew! OK, we've made it. Join OSF and Mando on RectVision and Nico and Bijan on the weekly wrap-up to round off the week and then have a wonderful weekend.

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