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cover of episode REKT Vision:  Can Crypto Remain Stable Amidst The Stocks Rout? ft. OSF and Mando

REKT Vision: Can Crypto Remain Stable Amidst The Stocks Rout? ft. OSF and Mando

2025/4/4
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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People
A
Andrew Parish
M
Mando
O
OSF
R
Raoul Pal
T
Tillman Holloway
Topics
OSF: 本周加密货币市场波动剧烈,但比特币价格基本维持在同一水平。我认为特朗普的轻率行为依然令人惊讶,但我仍然看好市场,并在低位继续买入。在市场最糟糕的时候往往是买入的好时机,尽管目前买入感觉并不好。尽管美国股市大幅抛售,但比特币表现相对强劲,其主导地位上升至83%。我不认为关税的影响会很大,市场反应过于悲观。关税问题将进入谈判阶段,最终会达成某种程度的解决方案,不会导致全球经济衰退。我认为加密货币市场已经消化了关税的影响,全球刺激政策将利好比特币。我认为各种情景下,全球印钞都将利好比特币,但对美元的影响则难以预测。我建议主要持有比特币,但也可以少量投资一些大幅下跌的风险资产。我认为AI板块、Solana、Sui和以太坊等资产值得关注,尽管存在投资失败的风险。我把加密货币投资视为投机和赌博,认为现在是投资一些无人问津的资产的好时机。比特币是全球市场的领先指标,其目前的强势表现可能预示着市场反弹。我们对全球市场未来的走势持有不同观点:我认为冲突会降级,而Mando认为冲突会升级,但对全球股票和加密货币的影响并非完全负面。我认为市场将经历升级和降级的循环,直到最终稳定下来。我更看好恒生指数,因为我认为中国将采取强有力的刺激措施。 Mando: 我认为关税冲突将会升级,甚至波及欧盟,这可能对比特币有利。我认为关税冲突将会进一步升级,各国将采取报复行动,最终在几个月后达成解决方案。我认为关税冲突将导致全球大量印钞,特别是中国,这将利好比特币,但可能不利于全球股票市场。美联储主席鲍威尔表示,关税将导致通货膨胀和经济增长放缓,这使得美联储不太可能降息。美联储主席鲍威尔不太可能降息,但可能会通过其他方式印钞来稳定金融体系。我不确定特朗普实施关税的经济合理性,特别是其计算方法存在问题。关税的计算方法基于贸易逆差,这使得许多国家难以应对,并削弱了谈判的可能性。我认为现在是购买一些大幅下跌的AI相关代币的好时机,尽管存在高风险。我认为股票市场可能还会进一步下跌,而比特币在这种情况下的上涨可能不会带动山寨币上涨。我更看好一些大型科技股,如特斯拉和英伟达,因为AI领域的繁荣不会很快结束。我认为AI领域的繁荣是真实的,与之前的互联网泡沫不同,因为AI技术正在带来真正的效率提升。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

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⬜ Rekt co-founders OSF and Mando, who is also the author of the Mando Minutes newsletter, are back to discuss the narratives and themes driving the crypto market right now. And there's plenty: stocks extending losses after the worst day in five years, non-farm payrolls coming in ahead of expectations, a tit-for-tat in the global trade war, and — somehow — crypto not nuking amidst all of this. Later in the show, they are joined by Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway from Arch Public, Real Vision's affiliate (go to realvision.com/arch to try algorithmic trading for free).

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