REKT Vision: Crypto Fears Creep Back In: Central Bank Policies And Choppy Markets ft. OSF and Mando
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Hello again. Sorry I was not here last week. Bit of a family emergency, you might say. But I am back again this week for Rekt Vision, our update on the crypto markets, even though everything seems to be going sideways for a few weeks now. Awesome to see you again, OSF. How have you been without me? Yeah, things have been okay. I was kind of out, you know,

a lot of this past week. So it's really nice to come back and see markets are basically at the same price as it was a week ago with all that random chop and volatility in between. I think, again, if you look at the weekly, even Bitcoin, we're up 3% on the week, which I guess is nice. Ethers up 5% on the week, some outperformance, which is nice. So yeah, I guess we are up a little bit on the week across the board, but

um it doesn't really tell the full story of everything that happened uh yet again as the uh the chop continues and cries from crypto space everywhere saying stop the chop this isn't i mean we've been in chops for much longer than this um what has surprised me how narrow the range is right like we've just kind of bounced around this 83 84k level um it feels like we could be in there for a while in my opinion uh

Maybe we'll go through the macro week because it was meant to be a very, very volatile macro week. And we did see some volatility went down to around 80, went up to around 87, 88, back to 84 again. Bitcoin dominance has kind of gone back up to around 62%. In general, altcoins have continued to underperform. But it definitely doesn't, the fear, I don't know if the fear is still there. Are you still fearful of us going down to like 70k or lower here?

Not really. It does feel like to me, we seem to have found a flaw and found some stability at current levels. I think there was a couple of times we went into the 70s and that got bought up relatively quick such that I don't know if we've had any daily candles close in the 70s. I think we've always had the lowest candles.

actual candle close may have been 18.5 or something like that. So to me, it feels like we've seemed to have found the bottom. That doesn't mean that we just V-shape back up and I still am maintaining we're in for this period of sideways price action, some volatility, some drop. But it does give me

bit more confidence to be like okay you know maybe this is now the level where i should be adding some more risk um and just dcaing a bit more heavily basically just because it seems to have you know found a flaw the panic feeling is seems to have left the market now it just now seems to be more frustration rather than panic i would say

Yeah, I think if you've been around crypto for long enough, you kind of know that we're in a period of choppy and it could stay like this for a decent period. This week, we did have quite a lot of different macro pointers, though, I think maybe to touch upon.

We had three different central banks coming out, all not really changing rates at all. Although the Fed, in my opinion, was a little bit more hawkish than I thought they would be. They pointed to the idea that we'd have inflation, although they used that classic word transitory, and they reduced their growth expectations. And they said that quantitative tightening was at least probably going to come to an end. Still only two rate cuts expected though this year from them.

The market seemed to like it and then just kind of returned to being around 84K. We've spoken about the idea that the Fed and generally global liquidity going higher is probably the major tailwind for this year. It didn't really fill me with a ton of confidence that they're about to just turn on the taps or immediately pivot. What was your take of it all? My base case was that we would not see a dovish Fed

I think we've started to see data weak and we've started to see inflation come a little bit lower, payrolls come lower, but I don't think there's enough movement on the table for the Fed to pivot or do a U-turn or give any meaningful message that was different to the last FOMC. And remember, the Fed is looking at, kind of looking more at stuff like inflation, labor market, et cetera, rather than stocks. So, you know, I think people, anyone who is expecting inflation

the Fed to be materially dovish this week, maybe we're thinking about stocks and the moving risk assets. And I think that's less important for the Fed. So that's more of a byproduct of what happened. So my expectation was we wouldn't see anything that was meaningfully different from the last FOMC. And that's generally what happened. However, the next FOMC, I believe, is in May, towards the end of May. And so we should have two months worth of

renewed data until then. And if we see these trends continuing, so if we see two-handled inflation persist and drift lower, if we see payrolls continue to drift lower, then I think you will start to see the Fed become more dovish. And whether we pivot straight away or whether you start to see signs of a pivot, I'm not sure. But that for me is a timeline. And I think that dovetails quite

nicely or not nicely, if you like, with the whole six-month chop thesis and the fact that it will take time for us to break out of this. I think that is the timeline. And just given the price action we've had towards the end of last year after Trump's victory, I think the market is a little bit spoiled in terms of instant gratification, things happening right away. And still everyone wants

The moves happen to happen tomorrow. They want that V-shaped rally. They want Bitcoin back at 100K and all this stuff. And they want it to happen right now. They want it to happen yesterday. But it's not going to happen like that. It will just take some time and it'll take some time for risk to consolidate and clear. But that timing for me makes sense, which I think sets up for a potential summer rally should the data go the right way and should...

Powell step up and start to become a bit more dovish. Yeah. On the back of that, I felt like May wasn't going to be a rate cut again, in my opinion. But you may get more dovish commentary. That's what I felt. I don't think it will be a rate cut. My expectation is still not for it to be a rate cut, but I think May could set the stage for potential future rate cuts. I think a surprise rate cut when the market isn't expecting it is not necessarily a good thing. I think it causes a little bit of panic, whereas

when a rate cut starts to get telegraphed and then it eventually happens, I think it gives time for the market to digest it and become constructive about it. So I think the Fed are kind of aware of that as well. I think if they just immediately slashed rates, it would just put people back on the wall like, what the hell? We must be in a really bad spot. So again, the data is really, really terrible for the next two months. And maybe you might see it, but again, that starts to get baked in. So I don't think we see any surprise rate cuts. I don't think we even see a rate cut in May.

But from May onwards, I think you maybe start to see more rate cuts get priced in, whether it's this year, whether it's over a 12 month period. I'm not sure. But I think the tune starts to change in the second half of the year. Hi, Raoul here.

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Man, we're going to be doing this show for the next six months and nothing's going to happen, is it? Bitcoin's going to be at 83k.

Thank you.

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Yeah, we're going to have to. Hopefully. What does happen is when Bitcoin ranges for a while and ETH ranges for a while and majors range for a while, you do have pockets of performance from other stuff. And in 2023, that was maybe like meme coins and Pepe for a little bit. Obviously, you have meme coins in 2024. So I do expect, I think if we continue to range like this for years,

another two or three more weeks, I do expect something to just come out of nowhere and start doing really well because those are the environments where people get sidetracked into experimenting with other things. So maybe it's not right now, but I would keep an eye out for developing narratives, I would say.

It does feel as though the fear factor is still in stocks. I don't know if you would agree with that, but like you're starting to see, you've seen the biggest reduction in equity allocation by fund managers for over a decade. This was the fastest correction. I think we've seen it in like seven years, like from all time high down or one of the fastest corrections in the last two decades at least.

I think COVID must have been quicker than that. So maybe I'm wrong on my stats there. But it does feel as though this has caught people off guard. This whole Trump trade where you own like big tech alongside maybe energy stocks, Tesla, Trump media, all of that has been destroyed. And it's interesting to see that like part of the narrative actually coming out of

of TradFi is that Bitcoin's been outperforming. Bitcoin's still one of the best performing assets since Trump got elected. It's like, it's Bitcoin and it's China stocks. Yeah, we're down from 100K, like 110K, but it is interesting to see that, like, it's still being seen as a pocket of almost outperformance since Trump, or at least in that Trump basket of things that were meant to do well. And

I think that's a very interesting narrative that I think, and we spoke about this last week, I think could actually, or two weeks ago, could persist even if stocks go a little bit lower. I think Bitcoin could continue to kind of outperform, let's say, stocks here and probably keep such its correlation with things like empty money supply and gold. It still feels like stocks, with the rise of China, particularly on the AI side, all these new models,

A lot of the announcements around self-driving cars, around Deepsea, Baidu, some of the robotic stuff they've been announcing. It's really challenging, like some of the Magnificent Seven stocks. And that could be a bit of a medium term trend. I don't know. But that could drag the stock market lower, even if global stocks stay relatively elevated and gold keeps on pushing higher. So do you think we're in this sort of market where Bitcoin can go higher, even if stocks go lower as well?

Yeah, I can see it. I think the upside of Bitcoin is obviously, if you're talking about like a massive risk on environment, I think the upside of Bitcoin, especially in this new regulatory regime is a lot higher than it is for equities. And so it comes to a point where it gets to a level and some floor where someone is like, or a bunch of people are like, cool, we're just going to accumulate Bitcoin here at these levels. Because when the policies come into place and if

the US does ever start buying Bitcoin and all that kind of stuff, it's going to go a lot, lot higher. So it seems like that level has maybe been found at least at the first iteration of it. And that is a very Bitcoin specific thing. It's not an equity specific thing. It's not even a risk asset thing. It's just a Bitcoin thing. There's probably a handful of people out there who are like, okay, I'm going to front run

the US and potentially other sovereign nations in buying Bitcoin. And here's my line in the sand. I'm going to deploy X amount of capital here. So it feels like that level has kind of been found. Like it's very clear there's deep bids for Bitcoin once you get like sub 83K.

And that to me says, yeah, we maybe do see some outperformance of it because, you know, we've been outperforming on days where stocks are red and Bitcoin has actually held up pretty well. So I would attribute that to new Trump crypto policies and the potential of countries buying Bitcoin and people wanting to front run that and deciding this is the level to do it.

Arthur Hayes came out this week and said, who had been bearish all the way down, actually had a good call for once, came out and said 77k, thought actually was the bottom when we touched it then. And he'd been calling for 70 to 75k Bitcoin. On a technical side, Bitcoin is hanging out right at its 200-day moving average. So there's a lot of

Huge calls at the moment for like, oh, we're about to enter a bear market. Oh, we're not. Oh, we've got 12 months of everything going wrong. Oh, we're not. And as long as it kind of stays around this 200 day moving average,

I think people can get wrecked thinking it can go either side. My gut is that Bitcoin probably will continue to outperform now, as we've spoken about kind of on this, in terms of dominance. I know there'll be pockets of outperformance, like you said, but I feel as though this is a market where in most scenarios, I still think Bitcoin has a pretty strong trend to it. And like you said, there's a lot of people that just want to buy it on a dip. I was actually thinking today, like what are the top,

What are the top five catalysts that it could possibly be now for 2025? Because this week there are rumors of zero tax on crypto in the US, and I don't think that's very plausible. But it feels as though stablecoin regulation coming through

they've talked about that potentially coming by the summer again so that kind of fits your narrative of something strong there RWA regulation no it would be good to see more broad regulations there about putting securitizing essentially or tokenizing assets which are securities on blockchain maybe you get another one of the big sovereign wealth funds buying a lot of crypto maybe like Saudi Arabia

or one of the UAE states or Qatar coming in and buying a decent amount. Maybe something out of China. Maybe we get something about softening of at least policy on the mainland towards China or just some form of government policy, which is going to be supporting crypto.

And then the final one was like maybe not just like a micro strategy, but one of the big tech stocks decides they want to have some form of a crypto holding alongside Tesla, who kind of is known to having some. But these things all feel a bit more...

I wouldn't say unlikely, but they just feel less certain when they'll happen. And they could never happen or they could happen in like three years from now. Do you know what I mean? So it does feel as though, even though there is all these catalysts, I think will happen at one point or another. I do think we're kind of in a...

Yeah, it will just get dip buyers rather than like aggressive buying. I don't think anyone's like out there aggressively buying. I think they're like, well, if it goes lower, I'll be the bid. But I don't know if people are like, oh, this is going back to 100K in the next couple of weeks. Just because I just think that

that the fear is really there in macro. Wherever I look in macro, everyone is freaking out about China or about Japanese bond yields. I know Raoul breaks it down just in a purely empty money growth equation, which I think is actually very easy. It makes everything much calmer. But it's just interesting to see that that's kind of, I think, what's keeping a lid on stuff. It's like people are wary of something in macro about to break.

Yeah, it does feel like that, doesn't it? It does feel like the fear is more on the macro side of things. And I've seen talks of recession stuff now, etc. Recession? Maybe, maybe. I mean, I personally don't see it, but I'm seeing people talk about that. Again, I don't know if all of it is just Trump kitchen-sinking stuff to get things to where he wants to before they can just start...

relieving pressure with cutting interest rates i think the one chart that um kind of goes against all of the macro fears is the um uh u.s money supply chart m2 which continues to go higher yeah which continues to go higher and has historically been a very good leading indicator for bitcoin um and that's something that kind of maybe is like

bucking the macro fears i would say not that many people look at that chart i guess like a lot of crypto people do the most bullish chart in crypto brow shares it like every every show he gets on which is like the leading indicators or the uh the money supply with a three-month lag we haven't seen that like correction of bitcoin to that chart yet we saw the correction of bitcoin to that chart to the downside which maybe had what like a one or two month lag

But we haven't seen the correction to the upside. And again, I'm not the sort of person who just thinks, oh, well, because that chart's gone up again, Bitcoin is eventually going to correct again just because it always does. I don't usually think that. But it does feel like we've had enough good news and enough of a clear out and enough of a risk unwind, potentially lower leverage now for Bitcoin. I could see it being up 10%, you know, back up towards...

90 95k without like for you know for minimal movement equities i could i could definitely see that happening and then that would that would kind of again be in line with that with that m2 chart so um there's belief in that chart i think i think there's belief in that chart yeah it's just like there is just a general belief so people buy in the same way that you're like oh people are going to buy because they're expecting you know sovereign institutions to buy

There is just a general belief that like, oh, we'll just follow global liquidity because that makes the most sense because there's been correlation for so long now. So if you want to be bullish, I think Raoul did a Q&A actually during the week. Go listen to that where he just goes through all the major charts as they always look at the ISM and the three-month lag to global liquidity. And it does feel as though you can just have faith in that.

One thing that has also been up only in crypto has been stablecoins. So we've hit $230 billion now, which was another all-time high in stablecoins. They were up, I think, $15 to $20 billion already this year, year to date. And it's a figure that, interestingly, maybe this goes against the whole narrative for original blockchains, or at least for Bitcoin. But

are these L1s just now going to become places to trade or move stablecoins? ETH was even touting it as one of its main use cases this week. And there's a lot of ETH maxis basically being like, oh God, we've just become a way for people to move the dollar. Do you think this is also kind of becoming the age where some of those dreams die away from Bitcoin? That you'd have like,

not sovereign but like you have independent current like currencies is eth just a way for people to to like transfer stable coins basically is that the real use case here or like are we give are we giving up on some of the dreams i think of some of these l1s no i think um i think the dream of programmable money is still a real dream we just have to find do that with stable coins i

Yeah, there's a lot of questions about that at the moment. Like Bitcoin's got this gold narrative and look, obviously we do a lot of DeFi stuff. We use the collateral of some of these assets quite a lot. But it's interesting that even the biggest blockchains themselves are basically pointing to that being like their number one use case. There's people saying that stablecoins could go up to like $1 trillion this year, like the amount of stablecoins, if RWA and stablecoin regulation gets passed.

And then you start to question like, well, is it just Bitcoin and stable coins? I don't think so. I think it's important to recognize that even though ETH hasn't moved a lot, there's still a ton of activity that happens on Ethereum L1, a ton of activity that happens on Arbitrum in terms of DeFi. There's still a lot of activity that happens on base. I think the idea of activity is separate to the idea of price appreciation, right?

if that makes sense. And you would, you would sometimes think of activities going through the moon, like the price of it will go up. Um, sometimes, sometimes that does happen. If you think about Salon, et cetera, but, um, there's a ton of, I guess like a lot of it is stable and stuff, but there's a ton of like DeFi, um,

NFTs still have their place on Ethereum and it's still a relatively active ecosystem, even if it's not quite to the heights of 2021. So I don't think these dreams are necessarily dead, but it does raise a big question as to what drives the price higher.

Well, they become gas. They become gas fees, but even for the L2s for ETH, there's been talk about maybe BASE could move to stablecoins being the gas fee for an L2. Right. And then that's a dangerous narrative for some of this stuff. I don't know. It's not something that I believe in. I'm just seeing it. And I can tell you, if in a year's time we have Bitcoin worth, what, $2-3 trillion, and stablecoins are worth $1 trillion, or

bumping up against that there's going to be a lot of questions i think about like what are we doing here with a lot of them um so or at least like the the idea that they are currencies and not just um gas tokens i think i think might be uh might be called into question more and more over the next year particularly as you start to put other real assets on chain like if rwa has become big there's gonna be questions about other other coins as well it's

I don't know. I'm still a believer. I like the ideas of our own native currencies, but I can see the foothills of this trend happening. And I can tell you that's going to be the narrative. It's going to be a strong one in six months. Who knows? So what with this kind of price action, and if this continues for the next, I don't know, like let's say it continues for another three to six months, what are you...

What are you doing? Like, is there anything that you're looking at apart from the obvious boring thing, which is just a DCA majors? Is there anything that you're looking at that you think could create some alpha here? Is there anything you maybe have your eye on, but maybe haven't put risk on? Are you even bothering to look for that stuff? Or are you just kind of taking a bit of a break from, from markets? Like what's the,

I mean, I've got a lot going on. You do have a lot going on. No, I have. But I have been, you know, I was in JLP and then I shifted a lot of that more into Bitcoin. I've actually been in my D-Gen stuff. I've been doing a lot of DeFi style farming and some of that's actually been Delta Neutral. Some of that's been like, like on things like Sonic, for example, you can earn like 300% Delta Neutral doing some of these strategies.

That's not been a bad thing. You can get like the airdrop and stuff. So like I've been doing some of that, but because I had so much going on in personal and then it's really, I moved more. I went from defensive to a bit more risk on, but by Bitcoin and then, and then just doing some DJ and stuff, but not like mean coins. You know what I mean? DJ and defy is what I've been basically paying attention to, which I've tried to get you in a couple of times, but you've never really been a defy guy.

No, I think the problem I have with DJ and DeFi, number one, I've never made money on it in the past. Number two, if you live somewhere where you pay income tax on crypto staking, that becomes a very painful thing to do because if you have staking income, for example, you owe tax on it at the time at which you get the interest. So presumably the staking income is in the native token. So if it's worth 10 bucks,

and you're getting it paid in real time, every single second, you owe tax on the value of that coin at that time. Now, unless you're instantly selling 50% of it each time you get it paid, you're going to have to calculate some tax amount, and then you're going to have to owe that amount later on. So I think where people sometimes get tripped up here is like, you make, I don't know, $500,000 worth of staking income based on

the token price at the time at which you got the income and then the whole thing just goes down which eventually all the DJ and DeFi stuff eventually does but you didn't sell your token in time so you have this massive tax bill but what you're trying massive income tax bill but what you're trying to sell is worth a lot lower and you can't in many places you can't offset your income tax with capital gains tax so it's a very risky game I think if you don't sell the rewards I agree that for you it's more difficult like if you don't sell the rewards

but um yeah no there's some there's definitely some interesting stuff there like which i've been more paying attention to but i've definitely been setting myself up for a for a longer period here like uh i definitely did not nail the exit um

like, from Trump into Melania. Like, at least I went more defensive after Melania. But, yeah, it feels like we could be here for a while. There has been some DGN stuff going on. So I don't know if you've been paying attention to... Money has definitely been leaving Solana. That's kind of clear. But it's been... The two blockchains you seem to be seeing, the majority, or maybe three, I would say BNB. Interestingly, like, BNB...

because I do a daily newsletter. Check it out, mandayminutes.com. And all the runners at the moment, the daily runners, as we need to speak in meme comments, are all on BNB. There seems to be a little bit of a season going on there, and that's been one asset since CZ kind of got out of jail, and he's definitely been pushing it a little bit more, and some things they're doing there. That's one that's held up. BNB is basically flat to where it was in March. So...

it's held up uh remarkably well um and it's kind of held up the best over the last month or month or so it looks like on the 5th of uh november again it's also kind of where it was right now so it's even slightly up slightly even more than that so it's uh that one's held up pretty well tron as well which is another one of these asian um style blockchains which has really been used for

for countries under sanctions to move stablecoins. But they've been building out a bit more of a degen aspect for them. They partnered with Pump Fund for their new... Pump Fund's launching their own DEX, so you're going to see Tron go on there.

And then I would say some of the DJ and DeFi stuff. So like things like Sonic has seen a lot of activity, like that's gone above a billion, even 1.1 billion TVL now. So those are the three I see a lot of activity on. I don't know if there's like,

There's tons of money to be made. Like what I just said, it's more like longer term strategies or maybe you do catch the BNB runner of the day. A lot of them seem to be related to the Binance team. Like every single week there's a new coin which like CZ bought or is linked back to the Binance team. But they have this thing called Binance Alpha, which...

I'm sure you're aware of where they list new coins. A lot of those new coins over the last month or so have been BNB coins. So there's been a big shift to right. Binance is actually being way more aggressive on listing its own native coins. And you get a Binance listing, your coin kind of goes to 200 million. It's kind of par for the course for most of these. So there has been like a, yeah, that's been a trend I've seen.

And I know some of the guys that we were in chats with who kind of do trading in the trenches, they've largely moved over to BNB. I don't know. Do you think that's like really worrying for Solana? Or do you think Solana still looks okay here at like 125-ish? I don't know if it's necessarily worrying for Solana. I do like Solana here at this level. I think it's quite attractive. Yeah.

obviously pump fund revenues are down a lot the ai sector is down a lot so the kind of the two big tailwinds that had at the beginning of this year um are significantly weaker and it's quite clear to me that finance obviously put some capital behind some of these bmb tokens and stuff and trying to take this opportunity to bring the activity back to finance smart chain but

I think it's too premature to call the death of Solana. I think we've seen people do it. Yeah. We've seen people do it time and time again. Um, I do expect it to have a resurgence in activity, I think, and you'll probably see some point this year where, you know, some of these are old, you know, I think you've had a big meme coin crash on Sol and stuff is down 80, 90%, but I do think you'll have some sorts of a bounce at some point in time. Um,

during this chart actually i do think you'll have like a some sort of a meme season or an ai season during this chart which is likely still to be on solana i think um so what's crazy is solana to put in perspective right it's about to be flipped by usdc as a stable coin um it's its market cap is 64 billion bmb is at 90 now

So it's full 50% above it. XRP is more than double the market cap of Solana right now. So obviously it's way too late to be like, oh yeah, watch out. But like it really has, the one that really is interesting to me is that like you're starting to see major blockchains, like I just said, get flipped by stable coins. XRP is the third biggest crypto again.

Sorry, no, USDT is the third biggest crypto, again, at $143 billion. There's a world where it goes Bitcoin, USDT, USDC. I don't think that's that crazy, genuinely. And I think it's something that we could see at the end of this year, which would be...

I think it would have really startled some people, I think. This feels like you're now taking the path to becoming a Bitcoin maxi or an anti-everything else. I'm just saying I can see it happening. I'm not actually a Bitcoin maxi, but there is a time during Bitcoin, like I've just said, in these periods of it going sideways, if we start to see stablecoin regulation happen in the US, which seems very likely by 2020,

by this summer. And then you start to see even RWA regulation happen. Those assets aren't priced in ETH. Those assets are priced in dollars. And you'll see more and more dollars come on chain. And I just think it's going to be an interesting narrative here. It's something that I think is going to question a lot of crypto for a lot of people who came in and thought like, right,

Bitcoin, and then we're going to have tons of other currencies, our own native currencies. Well, what we're starting to see is like, if you include all stablecoins, right, which is 230 billion, that just flipped ETH. It just flipped ETH's market cap. And that's something to pay attention to. It's not a trade that can be expressed, is it, really? Yeah.

How would you? Yeah, just own stable coins. I mean, some of the biggest M&A you're seeing right now is people buying stable coin companies because most of these don't pay us native yield, right? By the circle IPO. They just click the coupon. Some of them have in the past said they would do that. But, you know, I don't know. It's not saying I really have like a strong view on like how to trade it.

But other than I see it happening and I can see where this will be in six months, the only things that are up only right now are stablecoins. And I actually think that will accelerate. I do think we could triple that figure after that stablecoin regulation comes in the US. So there's going to be maybe the crypto total market cap

can go back up to like all-time high, you know? Through stablecoin. Through stablecoin. And everyone will be like, oh God, this is the worst possible way that that could have happened. You've really ruined my Friday. I'm just saying I've seen it. Like you'll hear about it in a few months. Trust me on that. But yeah, one thing I...

In that world, I do still think you can have runners, like meme coins, I still think could have a period, right? You might buy some of those coins. I think what it really questions, actually, is the coins that are non-culture related, you know, the coins that are just meant to be coins that you would own and you buy stuff with, which is a lot of the L1 coins, really, rather than the culture coins. That's what I'd be more worried about, you know, which is...

other than maybe their use case increases with gas, like Solana has done a very good job of making sure that Sol is at the heart of everything, right? So you can imagine a lot of the value still accrues back to that in terms of the validators. So there's still value there. But the number one collateral for DeFi could very quickly become stablecoins here. Maybe what we need is a meme coin of USDC or USDT.

So they can actually have some capsule... I know they haven't in the past, but some things so we can actually have some capsule appreciation otherwise. Yeah. So one thing that has happened in terms of the other D-Gen stuff is it's NFTs. Have you seen this? This like resurgence kind of happened... Yeah. Happened in a few different ways over the last week or so. So we've had...

um sam spratt who's probably one of the best known artists in the space did a very very uh successful drop um raised i think two and a half million on the first drop and then the assets have all done like a two or three x since they uh since they were released and um he does like these gamified drops with like almost like a competition or a prize at the end of them in previous ones it's been one of ones

And his one of ones go for at times millions of dollars. So it's like, it seems like quite a fun way to do it. And then just yesterday we had Pudgy Penguins announce a Pengu NFT ETF, which will include Pengu that they're calling, but also the NFTs. And I've just generally seen more activity from NFTs. You've seen a bit of like an ecosystem happening on abstract there, which is also linked to Pudgy Penguins ETFs.

You've seen some of the other collections start to rally back and definitely are as well, taking a bit more center stage. Do you think that will be the thing again? Do you think that's what we're going to be playing around with the next six months to trade it around? Are we doing a REX ETF? Have you spoken to Luca? Yeah, that could be interesting. I'm curious to see if it gets approved and what the follow-on demand for it is. But

it's a nice it's an interesting way to and it's a smart way especially for a brand like pudgy penguins to open up investment into what you're doing to the masses who maybe don't want to touch crypto but if you don't have if you have an ipo and if you don't have public equity if that makes sense and you know obviously like a meme coin isn't any form of equity but it does move on sentiment and if pudgy penguins do really well i'm sure the price of pudgy penguins nfts will go higher and the

I think it's a really smart thing to do to open up potential investment for people who are perhaps not crypto native, but start to get familiar with the brand and want to express a sentimental trade in it, I guess. NFTs coming back. We'll see. I'm still not convinced we'll ever see the mania we saw in 2021. I think you will continue to have pockets of performance. You had obviously crypto,

Sam Spratt stuff do really well and then you had something called the Good Vibes Club I think it was a new NFT mint that did really well after the mint as well so it's nice to see some activity and good price action return there but you know

specifically Sam's thing. I feel like that's very unique to Sam. It doesn't really matter if he was in a bull market or a bear market. It still would have done really well. And so it's hard to extrapolate that to the rest of the NFT market. And I still don't think we'll ever see the same mania we saw in 2021. But we may have these pockets of performance now and again. I don't know. Maybe if there's absolutely nothing going on and people start coming up with cool creations again and stuff, we could see it. And I think

That feeling of like minting something that's unrevealed and then finding out what you get post reveal, I think is a very novel feeling that won't ever really go away. So maybe there's a chance, you know, maybe there is, but I think it will take a lot to really, it will take a few projects doing really well going crazy for people to want to jump onto the bandwagon again, I think.

people are going to do something you know like what we tend to see in this sort of market is that you have to do something i agree with that but everyone's still a dgen so uh and as much as i think yeah you know you can do some dgen d5 stuff and it feels as though meme coins people at least on solana like people are too scared to get back in the water right now you're seeing i don't know how many times we can do like cz bought this coin it's going to get listed on binance like i

I don't know if that's like a fun meta for people, like enough. So I think that people will find something that they want to gamble on. Do you know what I mean? I do agree. Like the gambling never stops. The gambling definitely never stops. And eventually...

There's something that a handful of people make a lot of money on from gambling, which then brings the masses back in. So I do expect something like that to happen, which is kind of what I was alluding to at the beginning, talking about the chop and...

It's almost like you want Bitcoin to stay stable for gambling activity to start happening because then people feel like they want to sell their Bitcoin to gamble the next thing if it's not really moving. So I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. If it's NFTs, I'm not really sure, but it could be. Never say never, you know? Yeah. As I look through the different stuff that people are doing, that's the space where I see people having the most fun again. I see like in meme coins,

You see like fart coins doing okay. But other than that, it's tough out there. And I think some people are doing stuff on these prediction markets a bit like Polymarket and Myriad and Kalshi. But I think maybe we see some cool NFT stuff. The GameFi stuff as well has generally been destroyed during this period as well. There's been a lot of criticism again for whole teams missing the bull market to release products and

we're going to be another three years before a triple a game comes to crypto so um i don't know what else we're gonna do um yeah i think that's that's generally it for what we were gonna see this week it does feel as though we could be doing this show for a while um where where we're looking at smaller stuff and bitcoin's probably staying sticking around 83k um does feel like that's the best uh

still has the best risk reward out there at the moment unless you're going to try and do some really like dg and d5 stuff like i was talking about before well we did we did do we did podcast every single day throughout 2023 when nothing happened for that's right yeah that weeks and months um it's almost like you'd rather prices go down so you have something to talk about but um i have i literally have no doubt that something in the next two or three weeks something's going to come up which i

everyone will be like, oh damn, why didn't I see that? So I would encourage... I do think AI has probably got one of the better shots of coming back and coming back strong. I still believe that and that's the only thing I've really been adding to on dips. I do think there's a lot of the bigger projects that are still building and creating stuff. I think you will see new launches come out in the next few weeks. I just don't think the AI season and the AI rally we had...

November to January will be the only time it happens. I don't think it's going to just go away. I would agree. That's something I think is worth keeping track of, even if you don't have risk in it. That's sort of been my altcoin bet outside of majors. All right. Well, should we head back on the ArchPublic, guys? Yeah, let's get back with you. Last week seems like a good time to talk about what's been going on with Bitcoin, what's been going on

with the sort of trades that you can put on obviously um we're partnering them at the moment um and i don't think there could have really been a better time to partner with these guys uh bitcoin basically staying exactly where it is and just going up and down and you're getting to pick out trades yeah let's uh let's bring on uh andrew and tillman welcome back guys

There is clearly an alpha money moment from Mando moments ago, and he said, listen, I'm looking at Fartcoin and it's doing pretty well. That's the money shot for the podcast right there. I'm looking at Fartcoin and it's doing pretty well.

And it's doing pretty well. I'm like, man, this is why I listen to the show. This is why I'm here. I listen to the show. Alcoy is looking like a multi-cycle meme to me. Like it's the Pepe of next cycle. The Pepe of next cycle. I like it. Well, thanks for having us on, guys. You know, you're right about these moments of, you know, boringness. Will we be at 83 in six months? That may be the case. I don't know.

But Archpublic, we build products that are here to take advantage of volatility. Bitcoin just overall over its life cycle has been 9 to 25 times more volatile than traditional markets. So again, in the past week, we've seen two buys way down at the lows.

78 and just at 80. And then we had just an extraordinary execution at almost 87 at the top a few days ago. And again, these are algorithmically automated trades, which you can't pull off on your own unless you're lucky or you're not asleep or you're not at dinner. This is all happening with your hands off.

And so true to Mando's point, when you're in these moments and it's not just number go up, you know, having a product that you can rely on to generate some level of alpha, to generate some level of return is important. The other point that Mando made that I think is probably prophetic is,

Are we at a point now based on the regulatory environment where we end up with the top three tokens being Bitcoin, USDT and USDC? I would put money on that, to be honest. I would as well. Yeah, I would put money on that, Tillman. You can talk to that a little bit more.

Well, I just think that the Bitcoin dominance number for me has been the key indicator of this cycle. I think this cycle's, especially on the Bitcoin front, it's being driven by institutions and not so much by retail. I think retail's been bored with

Bitcoin, honestly, for quite some time now. I think that's the point of having automated tools is to cure your boredom, but still get done what you need to get done. You should never be a slave to your emotion, whether it's exuberance or boredom in terms of making decisions on a day-to-day basis. And I think when you see the volatility of Bitcoin enter into a real choppy range, some people...

don't know how to trade that. And so they, they, they get, they, they push their money other places and they start to sell their Bitcoin to kind of get those emotional highs that they're used to when Bitcoin's on these parabolic moves. And in my experience as a trader, those are the times where you refocus your energy on your strategy and what you want over the next time period. And you retool that into something that's going to be executed in

hands off because the emotional side of trading is, is really the enemy here. Bitcoin's chop is an opportunity, just like Michael Saylor says all the time, it's a gift. It is the gift of Bitcoin is the volatility of it both up and down. And so having something that's sitting there waiting for that volatility and executing on it is an opportunity that most people don't take advantage of, I guess, in the Bitcoin space. And it would cure a lot of the boredom

Because there's a lot of money to be made in CHOP, to be honest with you. If you know what you're doing, there's a tremendous opportunity. Because when you look at how many times Bitcoin over the last six months has crossed 90,000, for example,

A lot. And look at the variance off of that $90,000 price. It's been plus or minus, you know, 18,000 on each side of it almost. That's a lot of range and that's a lot of movement in a tight period of time. So take advantage of it.

Yeah, I agree. You feel like you're on the front foot with this sort of stuff rather than just like being reactive. Could we maybe go through what trades were done this week? I saw you tweeted out that you've got some like common things of a trade. It would be good to maybe look at like what you could have done.

Yeah, yeah. Let's take a look at it. If you look at the tweet that I put out, there's a couple of things to discuss. One, in that time period, over a nine-day period, there was a purchase at 78 and change, and there was a purchase almost right at 80. And then there was a small sale as it bumped up to 84 and change. And then there was another sale that happened up at right around 87.

So the commentary there is this, our arbitrage strategy, it's a 2.25x long bias. So every time you're making a purchase at that 78 and 80 level,

You're buying nearly three times as much Bitcoin as you sell whenever there's a sell signal that goes through when you sell a little bit. So you're accumulating Bitcoin along the way at price levels that are beneficial to what you're trying to get accomplished. And then you're generating a little bit of cash yield. So beyond the levels of 78, 80, and then sales at 84 and 86,

You know, we also put out a case study that you could find at our website, archpublic.com, that

That case study shows you that if you're using our arbitrage strategy as well as our intelligent accumulation strategy, which, by the way, our Bitcoin algo is not just some binary output and only does one thing. You could be running two, three, four, five strategies at the same time, a truly institutional tool. But if you're using those both at the same time, this is a question we get every single time we do a demo for folks.

Well, does this really beat buy and hold? Like if I buy Bitcoin and hold it for four years, I should have a lot more money. Does it beat buy and hold?

So we put out case studies that show four year time frames where our arbitrage plus intelligent accumulation, our algo absolutely crushes buy and hold. So you put in 100K four years ago, you'd have 185K now a buy and hold. If you put it in 100K in our algorithms four years ago, you'd have nearly $300,000. So it's 2X buy.

your return. And by the way, it's a lot of fun along the way, right? You're taking arbitrage stuff, you're generating cash yield. You can take that cash and do whatever you want with it. But if you play it the way that we've set it up, you end up with significantly outperforming, you know, buy and hold with the asset itself. Yeah, so that's what... Yeah, go ahead. You go ahead. It's just...

the last three or four weeks it's just incredible like how perfect the environment is for it and i have the arbitrage strategy on and it's just like um you know i've got these like crazy prints of buying bitcoin in the 70s like like 80 um and subsequently selling it at like 85k 87k and it's like it would have been impossible for me to humanly do that i think um

If I'm not mistaken, the 87K sale print, based on the time difference, you'd have been asleep.

Yeah, exactly. Right. And that's the value and the power of a tool like this is the stamina is way beyond the stamina of a human. The ability to use zero motions way beyond the ability for a human to do that. And again, then, even if we move out of a volatility range bound type of deal, there

There are other stock versions of the Bitcoin algo, which will significantly benefit from that. So if you're using arbitrage, which benefits from volatility and you're using intelligent accumulation, that accumulation part is going to do extraordinary things.

When there's a lack of volatility or when there's a sprint higher. Right. So you have the ability to work with our team and say, well, I want to get this, this and this accomplished with Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana, by the way. And I want to do it over a six month period or a three month period or a two year period. Click, click, click, click.

Your hands are off. You're just watching it with your phone. It's extraordinary. And really seeing is believing. We could spend all day talking about the nuances of how automation gives you an advantage over when you're trading manually. I don't know if you noticed this, Obi, but if you look at your charts,

The exits are always on green candles and the entries are always on red candles. That's a very slight nuance that most people don't pick up on, but it's extremely hard as a human being to manually be selling into the buying pressure of a green candle. And conversely, it's very difficult to be buying into the downward pressure of a sell-off, but that is where...

you know, quick execution and taking advantage of those, those turnarounds or those exhaustion points in the market. And so if you want to do it on a shorter timeframe, you can put it on a four hour or six hour or one hour, and you can measure the velocity of those indicators and enter those positions on a much shorter timeframe, but you can also do it on a daily monthly. So you can customize it to Andrew's point to not only the individual,

and the timeframes that you want, but to the market conditions that are best presenting themselves at any given moment. So if it's a real trending choppy market, you can have the vast majority of your trading capital operating in some sort of a trading arbitrage manner inside of that trend. If it starts to pivot into, um,

you know, a bull run, then guess what? You've accumulated during the arbitrage, all of the losing trades that you're going to essentially capitalize on during that run. But you're also going to be able to then change your settings to create bias for that, that bull run so that you're buying all the way up the ladder and creating a new rule set and a new structure as it pertains to a buying schedule.

So what are the different strategies that you guys have? You've said, you said like, is it multiple strategies that you can invest in or how does it work? Yeah. So if you join, if you download the free product, you can explore, there's about four different stock strategies right now that you can operate across three different symbols. BTC, ETH and Solana. We'll be adding XRP here in the very short future. And so if you,

Take your allocation and divide it up to your individual needs and or desires. There's an infinite number of strategies that you can deploy based upon dividing up that capital. So again, to Andrew's point, let's say I have...

Let's say I have a deep desire to accumulate Bitcoin and I have a set end date that I need to accumulate it by. Well, I can set a schedule and I can dollar cost average in an intelligent way, not just blindly at a given date and time, but when the market dips, right?

buying through that schedule. But at the same time, I can have a set schedule for a range. Let's say I have a set number of dollars that I'd like to place in Bitcoin between 50 and 60,000, and I'm convinced it's going to go there. Well, I can create an entire schedule of dozens of purchases within that range at different dollar amounts and set it and forget it.

So that if I'm asleep one night and we see a nasty wick go into that range, I've capitalized on something that I couldn't otherwise have capitalized on. So there's an infinite number of ways to set it up. That's kind of the fun of it. But if you download the free version and start playing around with it and use our videos and our manuals to familiarize yourself with it, it will definitely bring up a lot of questions.

schedule a time to talk to us. We've got a lot of great folks that can jump on the line with you, share a screen with you, and show you how to work all of the feature sets and all of the different ways to trade it differently. To give you exactly the

the number. If you just used our stock strategies inside of the Bitcoin Algo, there's currently four stock strategies where you just click a button, that strategy is overlaid on top of your capital and it runs. There's arbitrage,

and then there's three versions of intelligent accumulation that that have different parameters in them and are acting in a different way to accumulate bitcoin for you same with ethereum same with solana and a reminder to everybody on this call and watching it you can get involved here for free it's 10k in annual transactions so you can have the bitcoin algorithm the ethereum algorithm the the solana algorithm all for free um

And we're also running a pretty serious promotion right now where if you download our software, our Bitcoin algorithm, the free version, if you sign up with us and you follow Triarch Public's X account, you're going to be in a drawing to get two industry passes to the Bitcoin conference this year in Vegas. So sign up for the free product.

Follow our X handle at Triarch Public, and we're going to give away two free industry passes, as well as you'll be invited to our VIP dinner that we have with some folks and our customers there in Vegas. A pretty amazing giveaway here over the next couple of weeks. Bitcoin conference in Vegas this year is going to be a blast.

fun, probably aggressive ones. I'll have to see if I can make it out for it. You have any plans to go, Mando? Bitcoin Vegas? I've looked at it. They reached out to me, actually. So Bitcoin Vegas does sound pretty wild. 300,000 people are apparently going to be there.

Wow. It's going to be nuts. Tillman and I are going to be speakers at the Bitcoin conference this year. And I don't know, three days in Vegas is enough for me. I got hell at that point. I can't imagine being there for four or five. You just, you know, everything changes. You know, you end up in a time warp that you can't feel like you can get out of.

of. It's going to be an exhausting conference, I can assure you. But I will say, based upon Trump speaking last year at the conference, I think there's a new precedence that's been set in terms of the level of speakers that will be on that stage. I think we're going to see a lot of government officials up there. I think it'll be a good time. I

we have clear regulatory boundaries and everybody's pretty confident that we've got wind in our sails and should, should be good, a good time for sure. Yeah. Well, I agree. I think hopefully Bitcoin 100K there, and then who knows how wild Vegas will be that period.

All right. Well, it was great to have you on again, guys. Thanks for taking 15 minutes. Obviously, go check them out. Archpublic, you can find them on X or on their website. And like I said, I was just using the strategy to good effect. So you've got a great customer there already. I think that's going to be it for us then this week. We will see you again next week for hopefully Bitcoin's...

83 and a half K or above. And yeah, thanks for tuning in. Sorry I missed last week. Thanks guys. Thanks everyone. If you liked this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.