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cover of episode REKT Vision: When Will Bitcoin Hit $100K?

REKT Vision: When Will Bitcoin Hit $100K?

2024/11/29
logo of podcast Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Mando
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OSF
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Mando认为,比特币近期可能突破10万美元,市场已经为大幅上涨做好了准备,感恩节假期和强劲的宏观经济环境也为其创造了有利条件。他认为,比特币在经历小幅回调后,可能再次冲击10万美元。 OSF则认为,宏观经济环境对比特币有利,通货膨胀数据下降,对宏观经济有利。以太坊的强势反弹是市场积极信号。他认为,以太坊价格达到5000美元并非不合理,突破4000美元或4500美元后,可能进一步上涨。他认为,大型机构的介入可能改变市场情绪,但同时也指出,一些meme币表现不佳,这表明市场存在一些担忧。 两人都对市场走势进行了深入分析,并就比特币主导地位下降、meme币表现、宏观经济因素、以及机构投资者的影响等方面进行了探讨。他们都认为,市场存在不确定性,但对未来走势持谨慎乐观的态度。 Mando认为,以太坊ETF的流入量增加,且稳定币市值接近历史高位,表明资金流入。一些被遗忘的加密货币近期出现大幅上涨,这可能是由于投资者回归并购买之前错过的币种,传统加密货币基金也可能正在增持头寸。他认为,比特币主导地位下降可能导致其他加密货币表现更好,并对市场可能出现的另一次meme币上涨行情进行了预测。 OSF则认为,全球流动性下降与比特币价格高度相关,全球流动性下降可能导致比特币价格进入盘整阶段。他认为,全球流动性下降、季节性因素和特朗普当选可能导致比特币价格短期见顶。他认为,市场可能在1月份见顶,对2025年的市场前景不确定,并对市场上出现的一些类似于2021年牛市末期的迹象进行了分析。 两人都对市场走势进行了深入分析,并就投资者应该设定获利目标并坚持执行、价格可能会多次触及某个水平等方面进行了探讨。他们都认为,获利了结并不一定意味着看跌市场,投资者应该根据自身情况制定投资策略。

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Discussion on the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100K during the upcoming weekend, considering market conditions and historical trends.
  • Bitcoin briefly dipped to $91K but recovered quickly.
  • Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic for a potential surge.
  • Macroeconomic factors like inflation data and stock market performance are influencing Bitcoin's trajectory.

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Well, hello again for another episode of revision. It's black friday. I just thought I start to show very quickly to talk about real visions black friday sale um as as IT gets tradition, you're going to get fifty percent of real vision membership uh today thirty three percent of the digital products including R B crypto plus get thirty percent of the ypo gathering tickets to see O S F in person in january.

I may still come as well. The offer ends up in a few days, uh, december second anyway. Uh, although he is, let's say, two for one or little discounts on most things on black friday, bitcoin is not one of them. We are back. But do you like that? So do you like that transition .

is we are on our way .

to a hundred k feels like another show were expecting around to turn up any moment as we last through towards the bananas zone。 Definitely very, very strong week, although I was a little bit hairy briefly, we won't down about ninety one k think ninety k even on some some future liquidations and silent all the way back, down two twenties and everyone freaked ed out for for a day or so. But now all feels good. Do you think this is funny and be the elusive big weekend you've been talking about for a while?

I mean, the stage is set right. We've had a big flash out of risk. A lot of leverage probably got killed.

It's the holiday weekend for that thanksgiving. The stage coming off a strong macro as well. The stage is really set for IT to be a big weekend.

I'm not gonna keep my my hopes up because that's what I did the last three weekend and I just never really materials. So let's see what happens. But yeah yeah did .

materialize the market completely new every single time you vented IT. So but IT does feel like this one that we've had up, we needed to have that little reset, I think of risk back like you know, ninety k, we've gone pretty much straight line from about seventy k and ninety k ninety nine gave and then back to ninety feels like I have another go at a hundred. I don't know what, we never go one hundred and then gets rejected again.

And then we hang out around this low a little bit longer, but IT does definitely like we can have another go over the weekend um and lets see what happens. IT has been like you said, it's been in okay period here for macro as well. Um stocks obviously been done doing relatively well.

The daughter still little bit high. The inflation data came in when we kind of online and um but but yells happen happen falling a little bit the back down to kind of the levels that they were in otobu the ten years back to four point two percent. So maybe some of that trump worry that was coming in that would cause inflation is kind of subsided where and we're set up tty nicely for a macro standpoint.

Um interesting. Ly, this week was the first week where effectually suddenly started to make a move. We are we are biton dominance. Head backside was fifty eight percent um and if like a phoenix has come back and is hitting three thousand six hundred, not only eth ring has been a very barry signal for the market, right eth raley market dumps ethra that's what happened the first time in IT rally but now that seems to all stabilized and looks like a bit dominance with little but preparation so add of those three right now, eat soul biton which one you want to hold her F.

Eat fell s at one of these things were set as paraos. If eath was at five k right now, you like that.

such as purpose, yeah, you can want to want.

such as power is. If feeds was at five k right now, I think people would be like, oh yeah, that makes sense, you know I mean, like I don't think that would be a crazy level if I told you i'll alone to be five hundreds with the quin hundred k people like, oh, wow, that's like a big of soul but for eat is like, yes, just at five k 了。

Is not is not just psychologically, is actually not that much for hurdle, which is why I think IT could happen because I think you get north of four k or four point five k people can be like ARM. And that was so obviously, why didn't I buy you all that time? Um we have to wait long time for IT so I could happen.

You know the technical you have been pretty tough this year that the narrative has been certainly been chAllenged with the rise of salamon and sue and oversaturation, perhaps about two just takes one big guy to get behind IT and start pushing IT for the rest of the market to change like market sentiment can change so quickly at like really the step of the finger. The other thing i'd say is like you member, you just don't forget there is an neths G, F out there and at some point that android could turn on meaningfully that who knows, but blackboard decide to push IT very hard. And people just think, oh, I big one on the move now need to start to move rally, should I buy?

Like I just think all these acts can literally just change in the space of a day. And if you get enormous onto the east idea, N T F does exist. Push IT, which other tokens don't have.

So um IT has been a painful hold for much of this year, but IT does feel like things are starting to change. And the bit on dominance falling in people talking about potential all season, you are think he's is like quite nicely place within that back. So let's see, I never just like the whole weekend.

I'm not i'm also not holding my breath and eat just to avoid disapointment. But um I of doing that much you anywhere anyway I don't know i'm saying that but it's more like a emotional thing thought I do think hee's good IT come back here. Ever wanted to explore .

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Yeah you're write in the E T T F. Employs to outpace back on employs for the last four days. That's on the first time you've seen that in a long, long time.

Um the big one etf employs slightly slowed etf employs picked up from a low base. So and we had four straight days of employees. So good sign there for eat.

We've also seen stable coin market cap got towards all time highs. It's definitely been uh, a case of money flowing in, and it's not just quick one right now. So a bunch of different old coins to moving this week, if I T like to be honest.

The biggest movies on the week were a lot of coins that I wouldn't say they were dead, but they would just forgot some, if not like to a large extent, this cycle. Um so you had moved like you had coins like algan having a big, big move. Rip rip has been probably the strongest that at the top, top ten coins, huge, huge moving like that.

Some of the older narratives and things like gaming moves, things like sandbox, you feel like one of the biggest movies on the week. Um things like tea, which was a hot coin earlier this year but then largely wasn't in a bit of a bc coin. So IT, it's it's so sort of old coins that people haven't really been a notice for the last year months.

They were definitely owner and they have bounced from a very low base. If you bring up the chart for any of these coins is pretty horrific, what do you think you think that could continue? Or do you think that is just a sign of nominees is coming in buying the coins that they remembered from last cycle?

That's what I think IT is. I think if you're coming back in and you have seen bitcoin rally and you kind of double in crypto before, you're more likely to buy some. And you see the charts about actually and you think you think, well, like make coins over a hundred k that's mental.

Let me check for all these other like outcoached used to owner and you see there, you know down on the year or unchanged, sixty seventy percent of their house. You think, oh, i'm going to try and dice on that. I think that's the thought process right now.

And I think if you enormity you not only in the me going again or you know perhaps if you're not like in the jersey bucket and I mean, because aren't your thing, then I think it's easier to just, you know, getting to all. I think so it's not yet. I kind of seemed like to me that perhaps what's happening, possibly even just like legacy cyp to funds as well, you know maybe they just like now the time to double down on on the staff. So so eat because in.

As well I think you know like that that some of these were, if pins, like a lot of D Y coins, moved a lot of the um uh globe altus think, but stronger or E V M L ones. But but what was interesting, like if I if I read through the top, this is the the biggest game is on the week. If you look at the biggest losers, that's a huge who have means.

So it's it's, it's pop cat mog lockie radium. Interestingly, salon salona zero bro punky fog, like all of the midnight, means for the worst performers on the week. Um and IT has felt a little bit little bit nervous, I would say out there in some of those stories. A few of those seem to be out competed by newer things um and I think everyone is looking at that all coin cycle and o i've began have an outcoached asm here which forgets the means that have been paying during this this this consolidation for the last nine months.

Yeah, the other thing with memes is that just like so many new memes that are coming like big ones, well, alt, I don't know. I think we spoke about this a few weeks. I didn't be worse. Like if you're gona buy all stuck IT maybe but be worth like taking a punt on some a few different things that are down like six, seventy, eighty, ninety percent um but I don't know I saw I saw their own only that I still feel comfortable means and I think I will continue.

But I do think I just remember in twenty twenty one you had that period where a corn didn't really move and this everything else was sending like week after week after a week as big on dominance drop from like sixty percent to forty percent. I don't know if we see is that similar over thing here because I think bitcoin as is also see the trumping become as of stuff. But yeah, we could see. We could see stuff some all starts at to perform here, I think.

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It's not a small move like we have. We've gone from sixty one and a half, looks like around the time of election of the week, after all the way back towns of fifty eight. So we broken what is a long term train line support IT looked like for pick on dominance.

It's been the winter maker to call the end of bitch coin dominance. And I I completely grew you. But I don't think big coin dominance is going down to fifty, fifty percent or less. But IT could goes like fifty five and then stabilized even then. I think that would be a decent spot for market for .

next yeah a stabilization around fifty five. While bitcoin continues to the grind higher, I think that would be really good for the rest of the market. You really for all really coins yeah, I just think is I think just think we still think we're heading into the student exciting period for egypt.

A I mean, everyone's excited that you just see flashes higher and you know console lidity backlog, but that's what we need to think. We're going to have those periods. And holly, the next time is higher.

So therefore, ally speaking, this this is the move we should surpass one hundred k and should start to um I think you'll see another me coin run here again as well. And the last one we have is about three weeks. See all the stuff but yeah maybe others is the interesting place being ah I don't know, i'm not doubling there because i'm just happy with like my positioning.

I don't know like chop and change stuff and fuck IT up to speak in in rose words. So yeah happy to to let things right here. I think.

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What do you think of this? This was the one thing I saw that which is true. Uh, what we have seen is that global liquidity has gone down in the last few weeks um and not traditionally is at a very, very high correlation with with with big coin although um the coming start your legs um twelve weeks, two weeks um could you imagine a city like this is kind of what i've been saying, right?

Like i'm gonna reduce my risk at the end of yeah um and then I think we can go into a bit of a sideways child just and I was not following IT because of this. I was talking about like generally when I see this sort of really happy a PaaS encysted may last for like twelve weeks um so I kind of felt like we hadn't told the inauguration and then and then I was just going to even if I was super bly still, I was just going to go bit more defensive. Would you described to this? I gonna grow this come out. And basically it's not a local talk is it's a local talk, not the talk. Um I agree I.

I agree with him completely on this like I think um I think global liquidity is very clearly a leading indicator for bitcoin. You we have to see if little liquidity keep going lower. Of his savile zer around here. But separately to this, my thought was you have a big calendar effect happening right now with whole day season and also south january and people able to redefine risk again. All of that I think what to me points towards, like this big sort, like blow off top, move higher sort of thing where everyone just cut, like famine. And then I think people are obviously excited about the trump presidency in his inordinate, but that to me just feels like a classic sort of like sell the news moment or local top type ament because story a bit on reserve now this kind of stuff this is onna take like month to implement right? Like if not yeah I don't know me.

I mean, Lewis said could be a hundred days, but I agree you are. I'm not as bullish on that big passing bullishness on policy passing, but maybe not there.

Yeah so to me, I agreed you like whatever happens even if things are like crazy but dish, i'm one hundred percent day skin in january attention, I don't think i'm community can december unless things get really crazy, but one hundreds of times in january regardless of what happens, what the markets like um because that that just when I feel like we're going to have some sort of local top and we will see what happens for the rest of twenty twenty five and more uncertain about twenty twenty five and other people.

That's not to say i'm barish. I just don't I think less, which is, is a lots of unknown that we don't know about. And so I kind of feel like I want to be A A bit more defensively .

positioned in january. Yeah, and I think it's dying to see the start of frothy ss, you know like pump fun having to ban live streams because no zoom is are going on there and doing crazy stuff, just earn a few thousand dollars just in sun, buying a piece of artwork, six million dollars and then eating the banana um IT just IT just has that those hallMarks of last cycle, you know like the ripped, the rose, showing little bit of money, people coming for moving in here.

I think I I agree that I think this is more a local top than a meeting um than a than a but I think we is liquidity cooling down and the reality of a trump present cy coming in, I think this is probably makes sense to go a little bit more defensive. Um but I also think that things think of really crazy for the next month like you know how how IT is like the eighty twenty rule, eighty percent of the gains remain the final twenty percent of of a bull run. I don't think this is the full ball run, but I do think you like the end of the end of a move often leads the most parablist outcome so I think big monkey go to two hundred plus one hundred and ten hundred and twenty um by by january and then yeah I think I think i'm not married。 I'm just saying that I think that's when i've just got to be in more majors than my current popo to which has been fully rest on since since september.

Yeah, I think it's important to like clarify, like it's not necessary being barrier, ed, but I think many people often confuse like the active selling or taking profits with having a negative view on the market is not definitely not the case.

I just think you should have any trade or investor should have levels in mind where you would take profits and stick to them and take them regardless like you think the markets going hard and not like they have to sell your entire position. But I think people, especially like novice investors, are often get stuck in this mindset. Rise like i'm really punished. I wants to keep buying. I'm never gonna ll until I time barriers.

But I like, well, when you've turned barrier is probably when the markets already no change and you just cannot miss that point or you've turn barge too earlier, whatever is well as if you just stick to like I think things can get here when I gets this level, takes this seven one takes off, I think that suck a much Better with trade. And um I personally have found i've done that. I've done that this year of sold staff and then it's going a little bit higher the next day.

Remember in twenty twenty one where sell stuff in more in february and we had that pump back up again much. Then for the rest of year, things went down again as I man and pretty and glad I saw and just stuck that level because you don't have any structure around you trading or investing. You know, I just feel like you and never before you get yourself into some sort of hole by battle with your your mind at the whole time. So .

yeah, the other thing I would also says as we as Prices go higher, they also tend to become a bit more. So what you tend to find is that like IT will hit a certain Price multiple times before, so you'll never really get that formal. Do you don't want to mean like I know pretty much every single one of my positions will probably hit this Price again.

You know that is currently yet. Don't know where that is just because I think the volatility is high. So even if it's going up, it's going like that, right? Um I think that kind of helps you like that you don't get that formal that you know it's always gonna come back there.

So if you if you like, I missed IT um that's my general sense of IT h stays like I don't think big coin is going to a hundred k and they never see hundred k again. No because forget get to IT like a lot of times again. Um but um so I think I think that's probably good way to the maybe but the perception if .

to five .

k is that the real train until year?

Yeah could I could well be IT could well be eve IT a little Better eth beter, I have a question for you. So in .

the mean .

coin world, sold mean coincident all the range sectoral and san has been one of the trunk is forming majors. If eat is really well, do you think eat mean coins come back? Um obviously something like peppe and marg have all done well independent of of east performance. But do you think some of that activity can come back onto thereon? What do you think is .

what you think? If i'm honest, I know fantastic base, but I think people prefer find into metal mosque um and they don't like paying the gas is so. I think and largely like if you look at with the majority things like peppy attended, it's on centralize exchanges.

Um so like congress, you know I think I think we can probably. I I think IT says and so I just don't I don't see people um coming in and trading on eat that much, maybe bed. But base bases had a bit of a season right over last week, which has been a very, very interesting movie as he may be, a top we can we can touch on little bit here because there's been another base season.

Whatever base activity increases, this is coin basis chain um is always good day season and the majority of that was was around these A I agent A I A I mean coins if fears. So they've got that niche. No basis got now got a bit of an A I H.

The mean coins have done okay there, but it's IT feels like it's going to do well with air agency is done that I just don't really know if people come back to E, L, one to trade anything bought really, mark, right? I see the only one that isn't really listed for spot on many major exchanges. So what is the last eat meat or .

gets react, react. yeah. You are right. Like I haven't really yeah I think maybe one of the other means that time quite but only is that dodge department .

of government .

I think is sold every so on the pool, which I think is doing more volumes in the eat taking themselves. So here you are .

my really so I think it's just a select few. That's the thing I think is like IT will always be that from now on the opinion east for for mean force. The other one at least like it'll be if you're in that select few, it's really good. And if not, then it's really, really tough. It's really, really tough. So um I think mog over ously has had IT that is had IT, and then I think that just got a no okay position to be one of the few that can maybe do IT, but I work don't think many people would are buying if in points they might buy them for eat beater as a thing. That's only other thing I I can maybe thinking, but I don't think it's gonna like thousands of trades come back to to suddenly start trading on the one.

One thing I would says when remember when the e etf stuff came out, that's when pep ages were not like a to say as something like that and that was like the like. The two didn't even move IT was like or just here with ease. So, you know, for looking at historical moves that could be maybe an interesting one.

So what if so long again, st. Me, jeff, my then. That that goes like the next etf. But I really like IT peppi. For me, peppi is the one because the volume that is doing on coin base IT feels like keep can keep going and really well.

So yeah, I just write, use cn discounted the woman is just like it's just like an absolutely insane a an absolutely insane story that is keeps on getting stronger and stronger. Um what I would in terms of adoption this week we have had a few uh bits pieces which have been relatively strong um three main while enzo is the first one is is more headlines out of trump. Obviously hired percent to be the treasure sector secretary is a cyp du also looking to appoint a crypto zaw IT seems like and we are generally looking like you leave in january, say confirm leave in january. Looks like C, T, C might take over a lot of crypto regulation.

Um then we had brazil similar in this like game theory way come out and say they wanted do a bit coin, a reserve potentially or a congressman in brazil pitch that they want eighteen billion, which is not small and then finally china or hong kong came out and said they would do zero taxes on family offices for clipt to gains this like this like a global formal going into to be a little bit this is kind also I think we may attach a little bit from just the um just the uh liquidity metric like liquidity correlation because people will to speculate on on direct buying of script from these of things. So all of these out of all of these um I I mean I the U S. Is probably the best one.

IT still feels as though that turning on this is given the percentage of global financial markets that IT dominate, it's a whatever you hear about from them is quite a big deal. IT does follow that they're not just going to completely deregulate X, C, F, T C chair. I mean the C F T C does regulate things um but I think the coin IT takes a little bit pressure away from the coins themselves and securities and are more focused on the exchanges, particularly derivatives exchanges of futures perps, that's other stuff because the C F T C does regulate quality stripe tips.

Um but all in all, I think all of those, all of those will be big what they already want to touch on this this game very sup you back this and back here. Yeah yes. Do you think .

do you think we're .

gonna get a game theory whether the U. S. Passes this or not? Like do you think if brazil says, hey, we want by eighteen billion of of bitcoin brail is not a small, small economy, right? Gotta in the top ten. Um maybe it's small small, but it's it's definite out there. Do you think that that band leads to a lot of other sovereign nations deciding that they should go on this group?

Yeah I mean, the the donation that has strongest Carter is the U. S. Is being the largest, probably the largest sutherland powder of big.

And I think this is one of the top powders of big coin in the world. All they need to do is just get people feeling like of shit. We have all these gold receives.

We have all these like dollar. Now some these guys have bit themselves in the us. Are now moving on that I will just make every single lather, sober nation feel like they need to earn some.

I think and U K is bunch of bitcoin. And I think the U. K. Is kind of a bit more procreate gist just with like maybe some more defined refined regulation.

The interesting one will be china see what to see what they do um as well. They obvious ly have massive, massive dollar reserves except in the past. But I just think this is going to be like her.

You're going to be sitting here in the next few years, are possibly even soon more than that with most sovereignties just owning bick win when they believe IT has value or not is another thing, but they just gonna to right? They're going to have they is just like of people can be forced to owner. And I think the funniest thing is germany setting all the big corner like forty k and they are probably can end up buying IT back at like three or told three or five times is value. I think that's going to be going go down as one of the most like common mission in history, I think.

remember was like sixty, think he is still go on their face to the largest can is not to send them. I think the other big one is being stop being CoOperate, right? So microstrip, uh, obviously, is the playbook on this.

And you've seen, I think, probably about five or ten other companies around the world, say, even in the last two weeks, I gona to a bit baLances and every single time is met with the the stock raley. I think the rumble C E O came out said to do IT mp planet in the in japan that I think borrow another sixty five million dollars that that they keep on buying bitcoin. You have a found out of china this week said they gonna fifty million or bitcoin like that's the next former right under performing business with cash.

What can we do here? We're going to buy some bitcoin. And IT suddenly becomes this big I mean, that's kind of what microsoft I was as well, right? Um IT suddenly becomes the corporate treasurers dream. You become a hero because the stock Price goes up because you decide to not to just hold them in treasury bills.

Yeah, it's going to I think it's I think it's it's the writings on the wall hair like I think it's going. Um you literally have I mean, you literally have the U. S.

A people. The U. S A pushing a big point like strategy preserve bill. So if if he doesn't get passed through this time round, I think is something that will actually get passed IT might kind of be a little about the etf thing, I bet like the first time, the bit when tf stuff came out a few years ago as this topic thing that didn't get passed.

So you might take some time for to happen, but I do think eventually IT will happen. You only with you like if it's going to happen. This is the best environment for to do so in terms of a reregulation standpoint in gangster or leeving and trump in power, like you can't really have a much more consist like this environment for this to happen.

So compared to like for example, back on eighty five, twenty, twenty one IT was a different, different field then. So yeah I think happened I think the corporate thing is interesting because there's obvious ly I can extremely aggressive level strategic by microscopy and how many other couples can do the same thing. But no, like tesler own bitcoin about bitcoin, I can change twenty one as well.

They're probably a handful other copies that do. But I saw some like university and impending funds own biton three ts and just started to tf as well. So I think like it's a sort of asset that you will start to think and believe they should have on the banks. E, I think, um just like every return, best may now think all I need to have leg one percent allocation crypt or two percent location decypher or ninety per nine percent allocation crypto, depending on feeling on what type person you are IT just .

feels like this go like this global game of chicken intention about housing by pick. And if IT feels like it's starting to break down, that's special. I'm saying like no one wanted not if everyone believed IT wasn't valuable in that, say, the establishment, then we we're all OK but then particularly over the last few weeks, people are you know people are following in.

And soon as one starts to go and I want to get that, oh wo actually this is establishment. You know this is now being accepted IT can really start tumbling very, very quickly. I think um I think the the main made one would be if we get some form of the U S.

Policy around IT, maybe not uh like a full big constitution reserve, but maybe water down one. And if you had one of, let's say, top twenty one of the g twenty came out, said he, we're going to add bit going to our bounce sheet. Um I think things could really start uh, uh, speeding up in terms of in the crypt or being said, I think that's more immediate thing.

I do still think no, he said what our short term view is will be until uh, second week a january or first week january. You you know races on the twenty of maybe uh, so around that sort of time, maybe get some more of the left curve stuff because that's what everyone is doing at this time. We have obvious ly had a little coin cycle um or not cycle at all going rally of us.

We are so and it's mainly been if beter defy coins, some help some you know quite l ones that say things like X R P phantom algo um mean coin IT still feels as though it's a bit of a transition like the two number one narrative encysted right now times of mind share. You can see this in the status is A I and it's being going and interesting in the A I is is dominating being going at the moment. But the the whole mean going trading is continues to see a bit shift away from the from the mira thesis to to these more popular means. I know you you spend a lot of time.

And in that on the market, what are you looking at in terms of trends you looking to catch? Do you like the ones in terms of Price rain? What are you looking for, for the next four, four weeks of stuff that could outperform for me?

I think this to source of flight Price french bucket i'm looking at. I think if you put dish on the overall market market, the stuff that's within like the five hundred million, one billion dollar Price range, I think that's the stuff you can put in a lot of captain in because this was like now establish means they're just going to let rock tomorrow, for example. Um that could be very votile, of course and you have fifty six percent drawdowns.

But I think that bucket for me is like stuff that I feel like could potentially three to five vets, if things really like full sandow, we get this like big laugh, top sort of things. So that, I think, is that rockets is what I think I feel like i've put in good size. What I would say about that bucket, as I think I don't think the iwan exchange listenings make a big then at that level.

Whether if you look at coins in like fifty two hundred bucket and they then get to a one exchange resting, I think that makes IT very quick five ex and potentially anti ic. So that's the other bucket. Want to have some chips and and obviously much more risky because there are way more coins and you have to be much more selective.

But I think it's worth earning some stuff in that Price ranges as well because possibly um x you will see some exchanges coming. List that stuff and first exchange if you list low market cap stuff, they can obvious ly go a lot hi and then IT makes you look good as an exchange and that makes your listing desirable. Or if you list like a billion of the coin and I dropped like seven hundred million because everyone just dumps people like I well that know who cares about that.

Distinguish n't hasn't made a big, big impact. So I think we will see more listings in that sort of like fifty to two hundred years range like we saw with acts like we saw with peanut when that happened. Um and I think that stuff will like five or ten ex.

As I said, it's harder to pick things in that category. And intense natives like you obviously had the tiktok. Now he has been the big one in the I think in the last couple of weeks with what happened, the chill guy.

It's been a couple more. And I think if we're entering this part, the cycle where it's like retail come back on, enormous, come back on. You should ting coins of tiktok. I think you want na pick coins that have the greatest like mass appeal.

I think that's another reason why I haven't gone that deep into the AI stuff because I think AI is really give people who like think this is amazing, this brilliant, quite cool. But I think the average person like listening to the talk is not gonna like jump in on by this air co. In and more likely to bacup yeah I I love this child.

I mean, like i'm going to cup like by the coin that goes up yeah course we can do that. I think that's I think that costs much wide and net and maybe the I think could have been moved like a VC sort of thing or institutional fingers isn't necessarily barred that that could be bullish, ed, and go different ways. But here are more like the other camp of like gist left curve, simple appeal, jump onto us thing.

I think the the main risk with that because I think that now become all the age is that number one, there's very little mode. Uh if you if you appealing to mask people on tiktok like this does a tiktok me every single week you know you um and secondly, what I was says is is also I think less belief. I do not describe that like people don't necessarily think they're like um that it's more than just like a fluffy meal, you know.

And I think one thing that the eye stuff is done, even if it's not like I don't agree with a lot of IT, is like people really believe in this stuff that IT can go to the billions, you know because it's a completely new it's a completely new sector said to speak um so and in a bull cycle, like when that happens, there's no real Price limit to IT like no one's saying, hey, you know it'll stop out at this level um whether I feel like with some of the even with the tiktok means right like if peanut is the highest, people always look at that and go like, right well, we've got to flip that at this days. I I feel like there hasn't been one which has been established for these put these these more A I in coins that was like tell before tense, which he had a recent week. But it's very different in style. So I feel as though with A I people can have ridiculous velo basically.

Yeah, yeah, that's true. I think it's fair. I think is the nice thing about a eyes. Obviously, it's been huge names in the last couple of years.

And I think before you have this A I coins, which people find difficult to understand, but I think with whole like a agents acting as mean coins and with truth terminal IT was something that was a bit easy to understand for like the leon. I think it's the question of like how important people will continue to to feel and find that. I think so.

So I think andy may be doing through the out soon. That's what I heard. That's cool. That's coming up. So maybe real vision, views or or views of his individual, you too will be able to see. I do think he's he speaks very well. Andy is behind the goat uh coin uh and the area um and I do think we are going to see a bunch different intitial from people have come into the space now um that could be kind stories that way. But um yeah I think maybe maybe we'll linger a little bit on the AI stuff because IT remains one of the strongest uh, trends for last week. It's it's number one of mine chair again um head of means and and but as a subset this is really around A I agents so its its coins which are attached either directly or indirectly to AI agents that have coming to cyp do and down different things um and I will break that down with the three different section so you have you have A I agent means toga ized that say toga ize agents or toga ized our limbs and then I would say in for a place um the the the original token here was goat which is actually um N A I agent mean like the air agent was not related to Crystal came in was create as an next account got obsessed with this goat meme from twenty years ago and then over the course of next six months said all the way to post this mean is by by recreating a me coin somebody else create the mean coin and then IT adopted IT so IT was like IT was is still more about the mean that one um there's a couple of others um which have that some narrative .

what does like a real AI crypt and look like like forget forget mean coins in all that kind of staff and just less think about like actual utility or actual like real world .

applications .

and efficiencies like yeah how does that marriage look like?

Something is two different ways. And maybe the second batch which is the which is the cocoon zed on lands. That's where you can see the most experimental around that. So some of that is like some of them is is you know theyll make content and that that you know the coin may not do anything that but like zero, for example, made a rap album which got picked up, weren't quite big.

You've had others, which are there's one this week which which is hit two hundred million dollars, which is A I X P T, which is like making predictions about coins in the space. And that's become a very popular follow. And I think if you own the coin, you are access to like the discord. So but so like gated telegram version of an nail agent. I saw one this week that did sports bets, right um and you are able to see sports bets if you are in the coin. So actually I don't I don't know what that looks like at this stage, but really I think I will be if you own the coin, you will get some sort of special access to this specifically trained A I model um that's that's how can you then point work though but that's utility stuff you know we seen how that can sometimes work is easily record um it's IT can often be like medium term barish just because utility in the space and I has diminishing returns and that stuff um and ah I think with those islands is so little bit difficult if I think that the highest like sure Allan play is probably the zero before token, which is at around four fifty ish uh and that like made the rap album and have been creating content and is very, very popular as like the tiktok generation that say the the other way I can work is is kind of what how did so um which is build awards system for aliens or or for um decentralized computer essentially so like uh IT were reward different um subnet essentially based on the quality of um let's say results .

that they do .

for different questions posed by the a lame or different um different problems I think posed by posed by the network. So IT becomes almost like a bit coin model. I like it's a reward mechanism for the quality of the um the l line.

That's kind of how tower is built. It's more lit for for rewarding for training data. So then instead of IT being some centralized um close and wear like train these models, we have a big decentralized way to train them.

Kind of IT very much fits in with the open source network, like a Better way to basically reward open source ways of improving these elms. That starts out how is done. Others are more like deeper pen.

So you are decentralized. The the unit printed G P U percent there. There are things like nazon a we do that sort of stuff um because all to see these G P using a lot of the computer power is um is very very to foot get by.

So like people can basically run out that that's the powerful these of Allens and and that's how I can be built. So that's that's that's what the coins were like before these these token like these A I agents came in. Um and the third form just come back the original I said like third form of these a agent is like the infrastructure place, so is actually like the marketplace.

There's huge, huge parallels, I think to n th here, genuinely like huge parallels. I think goat has got this kind of like crapo punk narrative. Then you have a bunch of like utility based coins coming in, like zero broke up, big board apes, for example law um some A I P T could be like a zoo keep you know if they come in they they give you access to certain things um and then you have you actually have coins which more like the open sea of the blur.

So it's like virtual protocol here, one point four billion F D D. This this some this week, it's on base and that's what you you actually have to buy the agent by the agent using the virtual token. You know they they make a few hundred of these agents a day.

So like it's effectively like buying up um the token supply and that's that's been one of the best performance of the weekend. Moved into the top one hundred coins at one point two five billion. And F T V now is a much smaller current market. capt. Still a big, big move.

Um and then the other one is like of that on slams is is a coin code A I sixty and z which has a slightly different model for the coin and that is a dal rather than uh a form of currency for the infrastructure. But they have a model code allier which is trending on get hard like it's the number one number one a way make um and I think the vast majority like ninety percent the box being made up using the sulzer of framework。 So there's those like various to play. It's very Young AR. Like i've said several times, I think the simplest st way is go because I want to see that is like the doge of all these coins or crypto .

punks is the main one. I think that was the first one in the same one that really caught fine and is always like.

yeah but it's also different. That was me, yes. Whereas others are a lot utility bed, but the utility coins going to run, right? Like you board aces went to four hundred grand maximin went to forty billion, like you told he coins in the right point of a bull cycle can actually really, really run so we is and and you know open sea at the top is worth multiple billions so is time to already see those parallel ls right?

Like you got the shovel plays, you've got the means and you've got the utility um and I actually think they can all go a lot high. I actually think this going to remain the strongest, the strongest the sector and encrypt or for for a while because I think the product market fit is there. I think it's one of the few places where like cyp don't need the eye to get to the to get to the scale that needs to get to, in my opinion.

Um and I think I don't necessarily think A I I think A I need script as well. I think also it's really great to see A I researchers come in like in their droves at the moment um and an experiment here like there isn't a non zero chance there is a non zero zero chance that A G I is created by one of these projects because the incentives of that like they're all being paid so they're all working unbelievably hard. I'm not saying like you know deep mind and OpenAI and these other models aren't but like there's also kind of smart people suddenly in cyp du meet A I um or be at that like jail breaking these old lambs and try trying to get the best the best model but that there's a lot more experimental being done then I think people probably .

quite realize well, like i'm excited to see how unfair and in twenty twenty five, I think with the agents denims and means we saw like with A D J in adoption into that space.

And we've seen um so far this year so car to see how unfolds next year um and we should we have went to questions with remain few minutes um before we do um we want to show case some more pro content or reilly early this week we had fellow charts is Benjamin coin on the show, someone i've been following um for a long time now since my this is the beginning of my journey to crypto. He's some good analysis on eat BTC on on bit dominance. And of course, if you watch that, the episode there is discussion on bit donal's all quenches and are much more so hardly hardly he hardly recommend checking this one out.

Very relevant given the discuss we've had today. And he I think we're on the best at IT and has had very good calls this year and back in twenty twenty one as well. So remember as on sell right now with that friday revolution to come, force bf twenty four yourselves a discounted real vision pro crypt s description and let's let's run through some questions the last few minutes.

Best one, this from jonathon, the real vision website. Hi monday. If I got to write your risk on until year end, then reallocating to glp expecting downside early next year.

Is J, L, P, A hedge by liquidations training fees, shep's holders? Are you missing something? What are the risks strategy?

I mean G L P can so go down um by if you bring up the jail petri there appears where IT goes down. But like generally in periods of of the market going down, get a lot more liquidations and it's a perp. It's related to the perfect so that insulted any like big move lower right now.

It's making a seventy five percent APP at the moment. It's very I I keep on looking at IT and going like it's very, very tempting to just be like seventy five percent A P Y on a basket of stables plus majors um where I still have own sixty five percent kind of of a risky bag. Let's say that's tempting at all times like the sharp ratio of that thing. I've never seen anything like IT um encrypt at least so like I said that I feel no a worries in selling selling in in in december into that thing um yeah that is too many how to work like the IT IT earns fees both on the training volume that goes into the pool plus liquidations um and the actual pool of assets is made up thirty five percent stable, sixty five percent uh majors of which the majority is is sona yeah .

I think is the way I think about IT is is just a more defensive asset that has more caps down side. But german y has trendy tire in outside markets. But in big moves, higher IT will under perform the market.

In big moves, lower will perform the market. That's aware of you. So come back defensive basket to to .

own browse at he in R, D, M said that the the show with andy is gonna be wild. Uh so make sure for that one.

Can next question from rough on the real vision website, what causes divisions between spot and the futures market or futures based E T. S?

Really, i'm excited because we doing something really big for black friday. We're offering up to fifty percent of real vision memberships from today until december. The second, i'll let me tell if there's ever been the time to step up your financial game.

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Um I mean in various different things at the onest germany y demand for for leverage is not in the main one, also things that interest rates but but the main thing is demand for for h leverage. So if as a if as a futures premium, then generally people are risk on um and they look for leveraging the system. So there are actually separate products, right like that, although there is that basis like basis is a term which is ubiquitous in in financial markets because when you have to rivaw ves that meant to trade where the spot trades, but sometimes they can trade different and there's so many different reasons why they can trade at a different level. But germany ally eclipsed OS because people want to they can level up on relatives.

Yeah, I think agree. It's just like when people want to take more leverage. And you can see like you look at the funding rate, they're also tell you that the direction in which that leverage is going like funding is crazy positive.

People are putting on huge muscle level lungs at funding is negative. People are putting on huge level shorts, but it's just the use of leverage. I think that creates that basis basically.

J, P, N, the real vision website Manda. A lot of Manda questions out. yes. Manda, stick with that thought. What do you think happens to the Price of soul if he gets etf in q one of next year?

So so I am of the view that this isn't a cycle high, right? So I think it's just a local high and actually think you have a few different very bullish h things that could probably still happening in q to um number one is the F T X repayments and is the number one thing i'm looking at. So I think that's onna come in and that's to be another twenty billion other and I think people are going to stop for of which I think sina, i'll be one of those.

And I think after six months is when you probably start to see um the majority of the crypto policy start to at least we start to be spoken about. I don't think this is like day one stuff. And for I think going to point people to help him, the V P, the Crystals are the treasury secretary will help.

But like, I think it's probably going to be month afterwards. I think you too could be quite big one. I think sona can keep going. Like sellon to me on a pure metric basis, looks unbelievably undervalued, unbelievably undervalue to me versus versus eve.

Um and there is a lot of other change, even like there is X R P, which is kind of snapping at his heels, they're not even comparable. Um so and and things things like you know cardono tn like none of these things can even close to do this going on and slam right now. So sana is always one of these undervalue plays for me, even at two forty.

So I don't want to put a ceiling on IT because IT really could come for eve in my opinion. And i'm none of the view that we have this. As i've said so many times the show, i'm not of the view that were going to have this eighty percent draw downs. The market. I think I think we could have a good market which goes on for a while.

Yeah, just the only thing that wise me about stone is the bigger unlocks and q one next year? yes. yeah. If you have T, F, and have the F, T, X distribution, the obviously potentially out way that next question from labor on the real vision website before what an entity, just because I like IT only bought the ones connect to the fund with real vision.

I want to buy a red guy of yours is the best to pick one because you like the color, style, excess or something should pay attention to regarding reality, honestly, my view this is picked to red guy pickle to all that is, I think you should just spicing that you meant feel to be a reason. I think you have lot to get. People like mind off to get caught up with my car and let me pick the various ones without without, without paying attention, without um without paying attention, necessarily like this of something.

And I think you can look back through look at punches, for example is look at great punk, like the number one N F T collection punks with hoods. Try that a massive premium, but they're not the areas trade is actually resolve the common trade, but they they try a huge premiums to some of the other rare traits, which might be like choker or gold chain or a but tooth, whatever. That's because it's just a desire esthetically pleasing trade, I think.

So my option is like just find one that you think looks nice and and that you feel like you vibrate or that appeals to you um and then you can't really you can't really go wrong because then at least Price goes down and you like i'm stuck in this rare, I suck this thing that looks really ugly, but at least it's rare. I think you feel much Better thing like I suck. I'm stuck the thing that actually like to look up and makes me happy.

But you know, whatever IT is, what IT is that's just my advice, not just a red guy, but on or anything. All right. One more as to say one more question, but I think is more of a comment to us.

Coin eat. So all down since the program started back on form. Lads, that's from from from is everyone I don't know here from, but I M I don't know, I don't know that is.

But yes, unfortunately, we may be the curse. Friday course may be back because everything is muted but low. But here we're still up on the day. We're up in the last point four hours.

So i'll i'll take that big one. Looks like a lower high lads over um alright well .

yeah that brings us to a close to thanks every everyone once again for training into revision before we go as you will have a question for you um think maybe in the same questions ask when will back on hit hundred k we've been handling zing ly close many times now where once again just a couple of presents points away so um leave your your answer in the comment section let's know make sure following us on X A mom al time please please please take advantage the black friday sell on real vision this real vision 到 com false I should be f twenty four um we won't be having uh a revision showing next week。 But you will see us parts of as part of real vision festival of learning um which will be um available for free on the real vision website. With that, everyone, I hope, uh have a good weekend and we'll see you next week.

See you next week, guys.

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