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cover of episode The Big Dollar Reset Amidst Tariff U-Turns | Macro Monday ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

The Big Dollar Reset Amidst Tariff U-Turns | Macro Monday ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

2025/4/14
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Real Vision: Finance & Investing
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A
Andreas Steno Larsen
M
Mikkel Rosenvold
Topics
Andreas Steno Larsen: 我认为上周美元的走势非常奇特，这与债券市场脱节，非常罕见。我们应该讨论一下美元的未来走势，因为这种现象非常罕见。 大公司有效的游说导致特朗普对从中国进口的商品取消关税。特朗普的关税政策反复不定，难以预测。市场参与者通过抛售美国国债来影响特朗普的政策。市场正在部分控制美国的政策。美元市场出现罕见的货币危机和债券危机同时发生的现象。美元汇率与债券收益率背离，反映出美国信誉问题。特朗普政府试图加强对政府机构的控制，损害了美国的信誉。 关税政策的不确定性对经济的影响尚不明确。特朗普的政策可能意图通过重置市场来控制通胀。通货膨胀的实际情况与公众认知存在差异。目前尚不清楚哪些国家抛售了美国国债。美元贬值可能是美国与亚洲国家达成协议的一部分。多种因素导致美元贬值。外国投资者抛售美国资产导致美元贬值。通货膨胀下降可能导致美联储更积极地放松货币政策。全球央行可能接受美元贬值。特朗普试图加强对美联储的控制，将进一步导致美元贬值。美元贬值可能导致全球经济增长反弹。美元贬值可能导致全球金融状况宽松。美元不会失去其全球储备货币的地位。各国都可能希望美元贬值。 我认为美元贬值是值得关注的趋势。美国和中国可能在美元问题上达成共识。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 特朗普的政策反复无常，导致市场难以捉摸。特朗普的关税政策反复无常，难以理解其背后的逻辑。市场正在部分控制美国的政策。频繁变化的关税政策对美国经济增长造成负面影响。关税政策的不确定性导致企业减少招聘。关税政策需要明确的方向和水平，才能有效运作。关税政策的意外影响是通货膨胀下降。 特朗普政府的策略可能存在重大缺陷。特朗普政府可能结束贸易战。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the surprising U-turns in US trade policy regarding tariffs on goods from China. The discussion covers the influence of lobbying efforts by major companies and the resulting uncertainty for businesses.
  • Multiple U-turns on tariffs within a week.
  • Effective lobbying by companies importing goods from China.
  • Uncertainty for businesses due to fluctuating trade policies.

Shownotes Transcript

Steno Research CEO and Asgard-Steno Global Macro CIO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with the fund's COO and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down the latest news and forces driving global markets, including the tariff flip-flopping, U.S. dollar weakness, economic uncertainty, and more.

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